Search

For The Rest Of Today: An area of high pressure will control our weather throughout the rest of today. This means that sunny skies are expected through early afternoon with an increase in cloudiness expected by late this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be between 25 and 30 Degrees. A Significant Storm System Will Bring Snow, Sleet, Rain & Strong Winds To Western & Central Mass From About Midnight Tonight Through Monday Morning: A storm system is expected to bring everything from a “thump” of snow from about midnight tonight until about sunrise Monday morning to a changeover to sleet and rain during the early morning hours of Monday to heavy rain and maybe a rumble or two of thunder during the rest of Monday morning. In addition, this storm will also bring some strong winds on Monday and Monday night. I will break this storm down more below. Also, if you would like to see how this storm will affect your area, please refer to the map attached to this post. Snowfall Part Of This Storm: It is expected that snow will begin across Western Mass by about 11 pm this evening and then across Central Mass by midnight tonight. A period of heavy snow is then expected for a few hours after midnight tonight across all of Western and Central Mass. Snowfall rates of about 1 inch per hour is possible at times. The snow is expected to hang on across the northern Worcester Hills, the western Hilltowns of Western Mass and the Berkshires for a few hours on Monday morning while other areas of Western and Central Mass change to rain around sunrise Monday morning. It is expected that the snow will change to rain in the northern Worcester Hills by 8 am, but could remain nearly all snow in the western Hilltowns of Western Mass and the Berkshires through at least mid-morning. My forecast snowfall total map and what I expect in terms of weather can be found attached to this post. Heavy Rain Monday Morning With A Rumble Or Two Of Thunder Possible: Several hours of heavy rain looks likely across a large part of Western and Central Mass during Monday morning, especially between about 6-7 am and 10 am. In addition, a squall line of sorts may pass through parts of Central Mass between 7 am and 9 am bringing with it a rumble or two of thunder and maybe some briefly very gusty winds. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected during Monday morning and this will lead to areas of urban and poor drainage street flooding, especially since the ground is frozen and there’s likely to be snow and slush clogging many drains. Strong Winds: Strong winds will also be a threat during Monday and Monday night. On Monday morning, winds will be East to Southeast sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph at times. During Monday afternoon, winds will be South sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph at times. On Monday night, winds are expected to be West sustained at 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 to 50 mph at times.

Monday Night & Tuesday: Some scattered snow shower activity is possible during Monday evening with localized snow amounts of up to one inch possible. Skies will clear out late Monday night. Low temperatures Monday night will be near 20 Degrees. Tuesday is expected to be a sunny and windy day with high temperatures between 20 and 25 Degrees. West winds will gust up to 40 mph at times on Tuesday. Wednesday Through Friday: A frontal system is expected to push through the area by Wednesday night. Out ahead of this front, Wednesday is expected to be a cloudy day with high temperatures between 35 and 40 Degrees. Snow showers will accompany the front during Wednesday night with localized snow amounts of up to one inch possible. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be near 25 Degrees. Thursday is expected to be a partly sunny day with high temperatures near 30 Degrees. Sunny to partly sunny skies are expected on Friday with high temperatures near 25 Degrees. Next Weekend: There is ALREADY a storm system that I’m keeping an eye on as it could impact our weather sometime next weekend. Yet another low pressure system is forecast by all of the weather forecast guidance to take shape over the southeastern United States on Friday night and Saturday and head northeastward. Some of the weather forecast guidance brings this storm system close enough to give the area accumulating snow on Saturday into Saturday night while other guidance shows a complete miss to the east. It’s WAY too early to tell which “solution” may be more correct. Either way though, just know that there will be a coastal storm lurking off of the New England coast next weekend. Whether it brings us impacts or not remains to be seen. Nevertheless, I will be watching things closely and will have updates as needed.

336 views0 comments

For The Rest Of Today: Sunny skies with very cold and windy conditions are expected throughout the rest of today. Temperatures will struggle to get much above 10 Degrees by this afternoon. Northwest winds will gust up to 25 to 35 mph at times leading to wind chill temperatures of near 20 below zero. Tonight: Arctic high pressure will continue to control the weather tonight with clear skies and very cold temperatures. Low temperatures tonight will be between Zero and 5 below zero. Sunday: After a very cold start to the day, temperatures are expected to warm up rather quickly to afternoon readings of 25 to 30 Degrees. Skies on Sunday will be sunny, however, some increase in cloudiness is expected by late in the day. A Significant Storm System Will Bring Snow, Sleet, Rain & Strong Winds To Western & Central Mass From About Midnight Sunday Night Through The Day On Monday: A storm system is expected to bring everything from snow, sleet and heavy rain to strong winds to Western and Central Mass beginning around midnight Sunday night and continuing through the day on Monday. This looks like it’s going to be not only a real mess of a storm as mild air floods into the area on a strong south to southeast wind, but it’s also going to be a real complicated storm with many different precipitation types going on at the same time across the area. Snow will overspread all of Western and Central Mass around midnight Sunday night and continue for at least a few hours during the after midnight hours of Sunday night. The changeover from snow to sleet and freezing rain and then to all rain will begin first across areas near and south of the Mass Pike by about 4 to 5 am or so Monday morning. This changeover line will then steadily progress northward so that by 7 to 8 am Monday morning, it’ll be raining almost everywhere across Western and Central Mass. The exception to this will be across the Berkshires, the western Hilltowns of Western Mass and the far northern Worcester Hills where the precipitation will be a mixture of snow and sleet. Even here though, the precipitation should change to all rain by about mid-morning or so. Rain will be heavy at times throughout Monday morning and given the dynamics and energy of this storm, there could even be a rumble or two of thunder on Monday morning. The rain is expected to taper off to drizzle by Monday afternoon. Also, by Monday evening some colder air moving in on the backside of that storm system will combine with some leftover moisture to produce some snow shower activity. Localized snow amounts of up to one inch is possible on Monday evening. If that wasn’t enough, strong winds will also be a threat during Monday and Monday night. On Monday morning, winds will be East to Southeast sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph at times. During Monday afternoon, winds will be South sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph at times. On Monday night, winds are expected to be West sustained at 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 to 50 mph at times. The map attached shows what I expect in terms of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain across each area of Western and Central Mass. This is a storm that I’m watching extremely closely and I will continue to have frequent updates as needed.

Tuesday Through Thursday: Generally dry weather is expected for the middle part of next week. Tuesday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 25 and 30 Degrees. Wednesday looks cloudy with high temperatures near 35 Degrees. Thursday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 25 and 30 Degrees.

298 views0 comments

For The Rest Of Today: Cloudy skies are expected throughout the rest of today across Western and Central Mass as a very strong low pressure system passes well east of the Cape. All precipitation with this storm system looks to stay just east of our area. This means that dry weather is expected throughout the rest of today. Temperatures the rest of today will reach between 35 and 40 Degrees early this afternoon with temperatures falling to near 30 Degrees by mid to late afternoon. It will become windy this afternoon with north winds gusting up to 30 mph at times. Tonight: & Saturday: Windy conditions combined with an Arctic air mass will lead to very cold temperatures and even colder wind chill temperatures tonight and Saturday. Tonight will be clear to partly cloudy with low temperatures near Zero. North winds will gust up to 30 to 35 mph at times leading to wind chill temperatures of around 20 below zero. Saturday will be a very cold and windy day under sunny skies. High temperatures Saturday will struggle to make it to 10 Degrees. Northwest winds will gust up to 30 to 35 mph leading to wind chill temperatures of around 20 below zero. Saturday Night & Sunday: Clear skies are expected on Saturday night with low temperatures near Zero. Sunday looks sunny, however, some increase in cloudiness can be expected by late afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be near 25 Degrees. A Significant Winter Storm Is Expected To Affect Western & Central Mass From About Midnight Sunday Night Through The Day On Monday With Snow, Sleet, Rain & Gusty Winds: An area of low pressure is expected to track across eastern parts of North and South Carolina on Sunday before tracking up near or right along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts on Sunday night and Monday. This storm system is expected to bring a messy mixture of snow, sleet and rain to Western and Central Mass beginning around midnight or so Sunday night and continuing into much of the day on Monday. How much of each precipitation type accumulates is going to depend on the exact track of the low pressure system and how quickly the milder air works into the region. Trying to figure out how much snow may accumulate before any changeover to rain is proving to be a real challenge. Some of the weather forecast guidance, such as the GFS model is showing the cold air hanging on for a while leading to several hours of snow and a brief change to rain near the end. Other guidance shows a brief period of snow with a few inches of accumulation followed by a change to sleet and rain. The differences between these two ideas are pretty notable with the guidance showing more prolonged snowfall forecasts upwards to 6 to 12 inches of snow across the entire area. The guidance showing a quicker change to rain and sleet is much lower for snowfall with accumulations as low as 2 to 4 inches or 3 to 6 inches. Here Are My Thoughts: For now, I still think that the low pressure system may move north-northeastward across easternmost Connecticut and Rhode Island before moving along either the I-95/Route 128 corridor or the I-495 corridor on Monday morning. The question then becomes whether the cold air becomes tucked in across all of Western and Central Mass leading to a much slower transition from snow to sleet and rain or will the mild air overwhelm the area leading to most areas turning to rain and sleet during Monday morning after a few hours of accumulating snow late Sunday night. At this point, I think that three areas of Western and Central Mass have the greatest chance of seeing the cold air hanging on the longest with a slower changeover from snow to rain and sleet. The first is across the northern Worcester Hills; The second is across the Hilltowns of Western Mass, especially in the upper Pioneer Valley; The third is across the Berkshires. Across these areas (the northern Worcester Hills, the Hilltowns of Western Mass and the Berkshires), it appears that snow will begin around midnight on Sunday night and continue throughout the rest of the night on Sunday night and throughout Monday morning. The snow may then end around early afternoon Monday with some leftover drizzle expected throughout the rest of the afternoon Monday. All precipitation ends by late afternoon Monday. Snow amounts across these three areas may amount to somewhere in the 8 to 12 inch range. It should be noted and emphasized that this will be a wet, sticky and heavy snow. Across the rest of Western and Central Mass, snow is expected to begin around midnight on Sunday night and then continue through the rest of the night on Sunday night. On Monday morning, a changeover from snow to rain and sleet is expected to occur from southeast to northwest. How quick this occurs is still to be determined. Obviously, the quicker the milder air rushes in, the lower the snow totals. At this point, I think that the lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and extreme southern and southeastern parts of Worcester County will change to rain and sleet first, possibly as early as sunrise Monday morning. Rain and sleet then continues throughout Monday morning before it tapers off to drizzle during the afternoon. All precipitation ends by late afternoon Monday. Snow amounts of somewhere in the 2 to 4 inch range seems possible. Further north, a change from snow to rain and sleet will be a bit slower to occur and looks to occur in the Worcester Hills around the 9 to 11 am time frame Monday morning. Rain and sleet then continues through midday and tapers off to drizzle during the afternoon. All precipitation ends by late afternoon Monday. Snow amounts of 4 to 8 inches are a possibility. I will be completely transparent with you and say that this forecast still has a fairly high level of uncertainty to it. In terms of the uncertainty in the snow amounts, it all comes down to how quickly the milder air moves in and also how intense the snow will fall late Sunday night into Monday morning. If the cold air hangs on longer, then we’d see higher snow totals than what I’m forecasting. Alternatively, if the cold air is completely pushed out by the rush of mild air, then my current forecast snow totals would be way too high and they’d need to be lowered substantially. In addition to the snow, sleet and rain, it is also expected to be windy throughout later Sunday night into Monday with wind gusts of up to 35 to 40 mph expected. This is a storm that I’m watching extremely closely and I will continue to have frequent updates as needed.

Tuesday Through Thursday: Generally dry weather is expected for the middle part of next week. Tuesday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 25 and 30 Degrees. Wednesday looks cloudy with high temperatures near 35 Degrees. Thursday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 25 and 30 Degrees.

296 views0 comments