A Moderate Snowfall Is Expected On Tuesday & Tuesday Night Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: A cold front is expected to push across the area during early this evening with drier air infiltrating the region later tonight.

Widespread showers are expected to come to an end by 6-7 pm across Western Mass and come to an end by 8-9 pm across Central Mass.

Skies will then become clear to partly cloudy during the after midnight hours of tonight.

Low temperatures will be between 25 and 30 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph before midnight and West at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph after midnight.

Monday: An area of high pressure will very briefly control the weather during the day on Monday.

Lots of sunshine can be expected throughout the day on Monday and it will be windy during the morning. High temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph in the morning and Northwest at 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Moderate Amounts Of Snow Is Expected On Tuesday & Tuesday Night: All of my attention continues to be on the likelihood of a moderate snowfall across the entire area during Tuesday and Tuesday night.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southeastern United States during late Monday night and Tuesday morning. This low pressure system is then expected to head northeastward reaching the North Carolina coast by Tuesday afternoon. This low pressure system is then expected to track either over or just offshore of the Cape during Tuesday evening before heading towards Atlantic Canada.

While the uncertainty to how this storm system will play out is less than yesterday, there remains some uncertainty to the track, speed and strength of this low pressure system.

Weather forecast guidance such as the NAM model and to a certain extent the GFS model still show a more amplified system & thus milder air invades the region. This leads to a scenario where the snow changes to rain as far inland as the northern Worcester Hills.

Other weather forecast guidance such as the European model and the Canadian model still show a less amplified and colder scenario leading to an all snow event across all of Western and Central Mass.

Here Are My Thoughts: I still think that the weather forecast guidance that are showing the milder and more amplified scenario are incorrect & that we will probably end up seeing the colder and snowier scenario pan out across all of Western and Central Mass.

I expect that snow will begin across the entire area by about 9 am or so Tuesday morning. The snow is then expected to continue throughout the late morning and all of the afternoon hours of Tuesday. Some rain may mix in with the snow across the lower and middle Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and near the Route 146 corridor during late Tuesday afternoon.

Turning to Tuesday night, snow is expected to continue throughout the evening hours before it comes to an end around midnight Tuesday night.

My forecast total snowfall map for this storm is attached to this post.

Temperatures during the day on Tuesday will be in the low 30s. Temperatures on Tuesday night will fall back to around 25 Degrees.

Winds on Tuesday will be East to Northeast at 6 to 12 mph. Winds on Tuesday night will be North to Northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

I continue to keep close tabs on this upcoming snowfall & will have more updates for you over the next couple of days.

3 To 6 Inches Of Snow Accumulations Looks Very Possible On Tuesday & Tuesday Night Across Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon: Lots of sunshine with windy conditions can be expected throughout this afternoon.

Temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy skies are expected before midnight with cloudy skies expected after midnight.

Low temperatures will be near 25 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 5 to 10 mph before midnight and South to Southeast at 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Sunday & Sunday Night: A frontal system is expected to push across the area during Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

Cloudy skies are expected throughout the day on Sunday. Widespread showers will overspread the region by early afternoon. Showers are then expected to continue throughout the rest of the afternoon right through the early evening hours. The showers will come to an end just before midnight Sunday night. Skies will then clear out during the after midnight hours of Sunday night.

High temperatures Sunday will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be South to Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Low temperatures Sunday night will be near 30 Degrees. Winds will be West at 15 to 20 mph.

Monday: Lots of sunshine can be expected throughout the day on Monday with high temperatures near 40 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 15 to 25 mph.

3 To 6 Inches Of Snow Accumulation Is Very Possible On Tuesday & Tuesday Night: My full attention continues to be on the potential for the first widespread accumulating snowfall of the season during Tuesday and Tuesday night.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the southeastern United States by Tuesday morning and then head northeastward reaching the North Carolina coastline by Tuesday afternoon. This low pressure system is then expected to track either over or just offshore of the Cape during Tuesday evening before heading towards Atlantic Canada. As always, the exact track, speed and strength of this low pressure system will be important in determining the impacts this storm will have on our area.

Some of the weather forecast guidance such as the GFS model and especially the NAM model forecasts a more inland track over southern New England. This sort of track would push quite a bit of mild air into the region leading to a messy snow to rain scenario across much of Western and Central Mass with the exceptions being far northern Worcester County and the Berkshires.

Other weather forecast guidance such as the European model is showing a track offshore of the Cape, which would mean a colder and snowier scenario for all of Western and Central Mass.

Here Are My Thoughts: I think that the weather forecast guidance which are showing the milder inland track are too amplified and too far inland. Instead, I think that we might be looking at a less amplified upper level trough and thus a storm track that keeps the low pressure system just offshore of the Cape. This means that a majority of the precipitation with this storm should be snow. The exception to this may be across the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and across southeastern parts of Worcester County (Route 146 corridor) where rain may mix in with the snow during late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.

I currently expect snow to overspread the entire area during the mid and late morning hours of Tuesday. The snow is then expected to continue throughout all of Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening before gradually coming to an end during the after midnight hours of Tuesday night. Rain might mix in with the snow across the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and near the Route 146 corridor in southeastern Worcester County during late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.

Forecast Total Snow Amounts: I still think that we are looking at total snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches across the entire area. The lower amounts of around 3 inches may occur across southeastern Worcester County and across the Pioneer Valley. The higher amounts closer to 6 inches may end up occurring across northern Worcester County and across the Berkshires.

I do want to emphasize that there is still a fair amount of uncertainty as to where exactly this storm system will track in relation to our area. Should we see a further offshore track than what I’m currently forecasting, then it would mean much lighter snow amounts. On the other hand, should this storm track further inland than what I’m forecasting, then a more rain than snow would end up occurring. Also, there is the possibility that snow amounts could end being higher than what I’m currently forecasting. For now, I’m liking my 3 to 6 inch snowfall forecast.

I am keeping close tabs on this storm system and will have many more updates over the next few days.

There Is A Increasing Likelihood Of Plowable Snow Accumulations On Tuesday & Tuesday Night Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: Any leftover scattered snow showers will come to an end by about 7-8 pm this evening.

Skies are then expected to be clear to partly cloudy throughout the overnight hours.

Low temperatures will be between 20 and 25 Degrees. Winds will be West at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Saturday: An area of high pressure will control the weather throughout the day on Saturday.

This means that lots of sunshine can be expected throughout the day on Saturday and it will continue to be windy.

High temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be West at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.

Sunday & Sunday Night: A frontal system is expected to push across the area during Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening.

Cloudy skies are expected throughout the day on Sunday. Widespread showers will overspread the region by early afternoon. Showers are then expected to continue throughout the rest of the afternoon right through the evening hours.

High temperatures Sunday will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be South to Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Low temperatures Sunday night will be near 30 Degrees. Winds will be West at 15 to 25 mph.

Plowable Amounts Of Snow Is Looking Increasingly More Likely On Tuesday & Tuesday Night: It appears that accumulating and very possibly plowable amounts of snow will occur during Tuesday and Tuesday night as an area of low pressure tracks near the Southern New England coastline.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the northern Gulf on Monday night and then track northeastward reaching the Mid-Atlantic coast by Tuesday afternoon. The low pressure system may then track to near the Cape by Tuesday night and reach Atlantic Canada on Wednesday.

Snow looks to overspread the region around mid to late morning Tuesday and then continue through Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening. The snow looks to then gradually come to an end during the after midnight hours of Tuesday night.

That all said, there is uncertainty as to where exactly this storm system will track in relation to our area. A further offshore track would mean a very light snowfall across the region, while a storm track right over southern New England would potentially mean a mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain. Also, should this storm track near or just east of the Cape, then we could be looking at a heavy snowfall across the region.

Right now, I think that we might be looking at a mostly all snow event across the entire region. The exception to this may be over the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and across southeastern parts of Worcester County where the snow could mix with and even change to sleet and rain during Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening.

All-in-all, this is currently looking like a 3 to 6 inch snowfall across the entire area. Amounts closer to 3 to 4 inches of snow might occur across southern parts of Worcester County and across the Pioneer Valley & amounts closer to 6 inches of snow accumulation may occur over the northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires.

I am keeping close tabs on this storm system and will have many more updates over the next few days.