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For The Rest Of Today: More clouds than sunshine is expected throughout the rest of this morning. In addition, a few snow flurries are possible, especially across areas well north of the Mass Pike. An area of high pressure will build into the area this afternoon. This means that skies will become partly sunny this afternoon with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. Tonight & Friday: An area of low pressure is expected to take shape off of the North Carolina coast tonight and pass well east of the Cape on Friday. It looks like this storm system will pass far enough east to not be a problem for Western and Central Mass. With that said, I still am going to be keeping an eye on southeastern parts of Worcester County (Route 146 corridor & Route 122 corridor) just in case the westernmost extent of the snow shield makes it that far west on Friday. Cloudy skies are expected across the entire area tonight with low temperatures near 25 Degrees. Friday will be cloudy throughout the day. It is possible that some very light snow could affect southeastern parts of Worcester County during the afternoon. If, and that is a big if, the snow shield does make it as far west as the Route 146 corridor and the Route 122 corridor, any snow accumulations would be anywhere from a dusting to perhaps one-half of an inch. High temperatures Friday will be near 35 Degrees. North winds will gust up to 35 mph during the afternoon. Friday Night: An Arctic air mass will push into the area Friday night on strong northerly winds. This means that low temperatures Friday night will be near Zero. Northwest winds are expected to gust up to 35 mph at times throughout Friday night leading to wind chill temperatures of around 20 below zero. Saturday & Sunday: An area of high pressure will move over the area this weekend with no weather problems expected, besides the cold temperatures. Saturday is expected to be a sunny to partly sunny day, but very cold. High temperatures Saturday will be between 10 and 15 Degrees. Northwest winds will gust up to 30 to 35 mph at times leading to wind chill temperatures of 15 to 20 below zero. Saturday night will be clear and very cold with low temperatures around Zero. Sunday looks sunny, however, some increase in cloudiness can be expected by late afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be near 25 Degrees. A Significant Winter Storm Is Expected To Affect Western & Central Mass From Late Sunday Night Through Monday: An area of low pressure is expected to track to near the South and North Carolina coastline on Sunday and then track up near or right along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts on Sunday night and Monday. The uncertainty as to the exact track of this storm system continues to be high. Getting the forecast of the exact track of the storm system right is always crucial because it’ll determine where the snow-ice-rain line sets up and how much of each type of precipitation accumulates. After showing a track well inland into New York State and Ontario, Canada, there is beginning to be an eastward trend in the forecast track by the weather forecast guidance that shows this storm taking a track right across New England. I suspect that we could see some additional eastward shifts in the forecast track of the low pressure system and that, in the end, this storm could be much more wintry than rainy across Western and Central Mass. The reason why I think this storm may be much more wintry than rainy is because the air mass out ahead of this storm is going to be quite cold and it’s usually hard for a storm system to drive a path right through this sort of air mass. Instead, we usually see low pressure systems move just to the south and east of the Arctic air mass. Should this occur, it would mean a track that takes the storm either right over the Cape or just inland across the I-95/Route 128 corridor or even the I-495 corridor leading to all snow across Western Mass and a snow to ice scenario across Central Mass. Another reason why I think this is because it’s very unusual for a low pressure system to track along the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. Instead, these low pressure systems track just to the east of the mountains or to the west of the mountains. The reason why is because they are taking the path of least resistance. Because of this, I think that we could be looking at a more coastal track rather than those model guidance forecast tracks into New York State. One thing that is for sure with this storm – it’s going to be very energetic and it’s going to pack a lot of moisture. This means that heavy amounts of precipitation is likely no matter what form it takes. Here Are My Thoughts: For now, I still think that the low pressure system may move north-northeastward across Rhode Island and then along the I-95/Route 127 corridor or the I-495 corridor in Mass on Monday morning. This would lead to all snow across Western Mass into the western and northern Worcester Hills with snowfall amounts of up to one foot possible. This snow would begin around midnight or so on Sunday night and continue throughout the rest of the night on Sunday night and through the day on Monday. The snow would then come to an end during the mid and late afternoon hours of Monday. For southern and eastern parts of Worcester County (east of I-84), the precipitation may start out as heavy snow beginning around midnight or so Sunday night and continuing throughout the rest of Sunday night and into the first part of Monday morning. The snow may then change to a messy mixture of sleet and freezing rain around mid-morning Monday with the freezing rain and sleet continuing into Monday afternoon. All precipitation then ends by mid to late afternoon Monday. Even with the changeover to ice, snow amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible across southern and eastern Worcester County with ice amounts of one quarter of an inch possible. In addition to the heavy precipitation, it is likely to be windy throughout the storm with wind gusts up to 35 to 40 mph at times. This means that blowing snow is likely across Western Mass and the western and the northern Worcester Hills throughout the storm. It also means that blowing snow is likely late Sunday night into Monday morning followed by wind blown sleet and freezing rain later Monday morning into Monday afternoon across southern and eastern parts of Worcester County. This is a storm that I’m watching extremely closely and I will continue to have frequent updates as needed.

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For This Afternoon: Quiet weather is expected this afternoon across the area with much milder temperatures expected, as compared to yesterday. High temperatures this afternoon will be near 35 Degrees. It will also be windy this afternoon with southwest winds gusting up to 35 mph at times. Tonight & Thursday: Cloudy skies are expected tonight and Thursday morning with some sunshine returning for Thursday afternoon. In addition, a few snow showers are possible during Thursday morning, especially across Western Mass as a piece of atmospheric energy moves through. Low temperatures tonight will be near 25 Degrees. High temperatures Thursday will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Thursday Night & Friday: An area of low pressure is expected to take shape off of the North Carolina coast on Thursday night and then pass well east of the Cape on Friday. This type of track is such that it should be a miss for Western and Central Mass, although we might have to keep an eye on southeastern parts of Worcester County (Route 146 corridor) for the possibility of the western extent of the snow shield affecting this part of Worcester County late Thursday night and Friday morning. Cloudy skies are expected across the entire area on Thursday night with perhaps some light snow across just southeastern Worcester County very late Thursday night. Low temperatures Thursday night will be near 25 Degrees. Friday will start out cloudy across the entire area and some light snow may linger across southeastern Worcester County during the morning. If, and that is a big if, the snow shield does make it as far west as the Route 146 corridor, any snow accumulations would be anywhere from a dusting to perhaps one inch. Skies will become partly sunny during Friday afternoon with a gusty north wind expected. High temperatures Friday will be near 35 Degrees. Saturday & Sunday: An area of high pressure will move over the area this weekend with no weather problems expected, besides the cold temperatures. Saturday is expected to be a sunny to partly sunny day with high temperatures between 10 and 15 Degrees. Sunday looks sunny, however, some increase in cloudiness can be expected by late afternoon. High temperatures Sunday will be near 25 Degrees. Sunday Night & Monday: An area of low pressure is expected to track to near the South and North Carolina coastline on Sunday and then track up near or right along the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts on Sunday night and Monday. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty as to the exact track of this storm system. This is important because the track of the storm will determine precipitation type and how much of each type of precipitation accumulates. Recent trends in the weather forecast guidance are for a more inland track that takes the low pressure system up into central and eastern New York State. This has led to guidance now showing a messy situation of heavy snow to start with that changes to ice and then heavy rain. I can tell you that while I’m not totally convinced that this will take that far of an inland track. The reason for my skepticism in the weather forecast guidance is that the air mass out ahead of this storm is going to be quite cold and it’s usually hard for a storm system to drive a path right through this sort of air mass. Instead, we usually see low pressure systems move just to the south and east of the Arctic air mass. Should this occur, it would mean a track that takes the storm either right near the south coast of New England and the Cape or just inland across the I-95 corridor leading to all snow across Western Mass and a snow to ice scenario across Central Mass. One thing that is for sure with this storm – it’s going to be very energetic and it’s going to pack a lot of moisture. This means that heavy amounts of precipitation is likely no matter what form it takes. Here Are My Thoughts: For now, I think that the low pressure system may move north-northeastward across Rhode Island and eastern Mass on Monday morning. This would lead to all snow across Western Mass into the western and northern Worcester Hills with heavy amounts of snow possible. This snow would begin just after midnight on Sunday night and continue through much of the day on Monday before ending late Monday afternoon. For southern and eastern parts of Worcester County (east of I-84), the precipitation may start out as heavy snow beginning just after midnight Sunday night and continuing into the Monday morning commute. The snow may then change to a messy mixture of sleet and freezing rain later Monday morning that continues into Monday afternoon. All precipitation then ends later Monday afternoon. Even with the changeover to ice, snow amounts across southern and eastern Worcester County could be significant. In addition to the heavy precipitation, it is likely to be windy throughout the storm with wind gusts up to 35 to 40 mph at times. This means that blowing snow is likely across Western Mass and the western and the northern Worcester Hills throughout the storm. It also means that blowing snow is likely late Sunday night into Monday morning followed by wind blown sleet and freezing rain Monday afternoon across southern and eastern parts of Worcester County. This is a storm that I’m watching extremely closely and I will have frequent updates as needed.

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For This Afternoon: An Arctic air mass is in place across the region. Even though skies this afternoon will be sunny to at times partly sunny, temperatures will struggle to make it much past 10 Degrees. Tonight: Arctic high pressure will move right over New England early tonight and then begins to move to the east late tonight. This all means that skies this evening will be clear and this will lead to temperatures falling to near Zero by midnight. After midnight, however, some increase in high clouds could cause temperatures to steady off between Zero and 5 above zero. Wednesday: That high pressure system will continue moving to the east and this will set up a southwesterly wind flow over our area. This means that Wednesday will be significantly milder than today with high temperatures near 35 Degrees. Also, skies on Wednesday will be partly sunny. Thursday: A mixture of sunshine and clouds is expected for Thursday with high temperatures near 40 Degrees. Friday: An area of low pressure is expected to take shape off of the North Carolina coast on Thursday night and then pass well east of the Cape on Friday. This type of track is such that it’ll be a miss for Western and Central Mass in terms of any snow. At this point, Friday is expected to feature a mixture of sunshine and clouds with high temperatures near 30 Degrees. Saturday Through Monday: An area of high pressure will control our weather on Saturday with lots of sunshine expected. One thing that offshore storm system will do is pull down some more Arctic air into our area. Because of this, high temperatures on Saturday will be between 15 and 20 Degrees. Beyond this, I am keeping a very close eye on another storm system that’ll move offshore of the southeastern United States on Sunday. The track of this storm system is going to be crucial in determining whether Western and Central Mass sees accumulating snow or not on Sunday night and Monday. As expected, the weather forecast guidance is of no help at this time range because they all have differing tracks and impacts for our area. These differences range from a complete miss to the east to a full-blown snowstorm with near blizzard conditions on Sunday night and especially on Monday. It should be noted that the forecast weather pattern for Sunday and Monday when comparing it to historical snowstorms reveal that this is certainly a storm to really watch closely. For now, I think that Sunday will be partly sunny with high temperatures near 25 Degrees. Sunday night will probably see an increase in clouds with perhaps some snow moving in after midnight. Low temperatures Sunday night will be near 15 Degrees. Monday may see at least some snow. How much accumulates is still to be determined, but it is a storm system to really watch closely. High temperatures Monday will be near 30 Degrees.

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