Thunderstorms Will Continue To Be A Threat Through Monday Across Western & Central Mass

Thunderstorms are going to be a threat from time to time over the next couple of days or so as a frontal boundary hangs out close to our area.

Some scattered thunderstorms will continue to be a threat this evening before there's a break for a while after midnight tonight. Another round of scattered thunderstorms could be a threat near sunrise Sunday morning.

Turning to Sunday, it appears that there could be a few round of thunderstorms during the day. First round looks to be during the late morning and early afternoon hours. A second round of scattered thunderstorms are likely during the late afternoon and evening hours of Sunday. A third round of scattered thunderstorms are possible well after midnight Sunday night.

On Monday, some leftover scattered thunderstorms are possibly first thing Monday morning. A break in the action looks possible the rest of the day with another round of thunderstorms possible later Monday afternoon.

Partly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday with another threat for thunderstorms expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Latest Update On Hurricane Lee As It Pertains To Southern New England: Some westerly wind shear of 10-15 knots are still affecting Lee and because of it, the hurricane hasn’t been really able to strengthen over the last 24 hours. It appears that this wind shear should decrease to less than 10 knots as we get into Sunday and Monday. Because of this, it looks possible that we could see another round of robust strengthening during Sunday and Monday with the hurricane strengthening up to about a Category 4 hurricane by Monday and hanging onto that strength through Tuesday.

There continues to be a decent amount of uncertainty as to how close Lee will ultimately pass to Southern New England next weekend.

One of the big unknowns to the forecast is going to be where exactly Lee will turn to the northwest and north. This is going to be important in figuring out who may be at the greatest threat.

I can say the weather forecast guidance are not in good agreement with this aspect of the forecast.

Weather forecast guidance like the GFS and Canadian models show the turn occurring around 65-67 West Longitude with the track producing a near direct impact on Nova Scotia with no impact here in Western & Central Mass. Obviously, this is the best case scenario by far.

The latest European weather model was a bit of a surprise as it now shows Lee getting completely blocked in from the east with one upper level trough missing out on grabbing it and pulling it out to the northeast. Instead, the latest European model shows a scenario of a strong second trough pulling Lee right into eastern New England as a pretty formidable storm next Sunday, which would be absolutely nasty for Western and Central Mass with extremely heavy rain and strong winds next Sunday.

I’m not buying into the solution of the European model, which is a hurricane heading northwestward from about 35 North Latitude, 70 West Longitude right into New England. It would be a historically very unusual track as usually hurricanes hitting New England usually pass very close to 35 North Latitude, 73-75 West Longitude for them to be a problem for our area.

So, while there is a strong likelihood that Lee will turn northwest and north and eventually pass to the west of Bermuda, there is a great amount of uncertainty as to how fast this is will occur. A delay of even a day or so would mean the difference between a hit on Nova Scotia and a direct hit on some part of Southern New England.

Here Are My Thoughts: Based on everything that I’ve looked at, I still think that we may see a track that takes Lee just east of the Cape next weekend, which would possibly lead to some rain for our area. How much will depend on how close the track actually is. If the storm’s track is fairly far east of the Cape, then we’d perhaps see some scattered showers with sunshine from time to time next weekend. On the other hand, if the storm’s track is right over the Cape, then a driving rain with 40-50 mph wind gusts would become likely next weekend.

A lot will still change with the forecasts around Lee. I know there are a number of weddings in the local area next weekend and just know that I'm not only rooting for no impacts all from Lee on our area, but I'm also keeping very close tabs on this storm for our weather next weekend.

More updates on Lee will be sent out as needed in the coming days.

Very Warm & Humid Weather Continues Through This Weekend

For Tonight: Very warm and humid weather is expected across the region tonight under partly cloudy skies. I think that any thunderstorms will remain over the Berkshires, but don’t be surprised to possibly see a thunderstorm or two as far east as the I-91 corridor. Low temperatures will be near 70 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Friday: Another hot and humid day is expected for Friday under generally a mixture of sunshine and clouds. One difference with tomorrow’s weather will be the potential for a few thunderstorms from about mid-afternoon through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms will have the potential to produce some heavy downpours and perhaps some gusty winds. High temperatures will be between 85 and 90 Degrees. Winds will be South at 10 to 20 mph. This Weekend: Saturday looks warmer and more humid than Sunday. Saturday looks cloudy with some scattered showers and thunderstorms around. High temperatures will be between 80 and 85 Degrees. While Sunday looks a little cooler than Saturday, it appears that it will still be humid. In addition, expect afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms around. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Monday: A frontal boundary is expected to push through during the day on Monday bringing with it another round of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Turning To Hurricane Lee: Hurricane Lee, which is currently located over the tropical Atlantic has undergone one of the fastest, if not the fastest round of intensification that I’ve ever seen in a storm. Lee was a 80 mph hurricane early this morning with no eye visible at all. As of this evening or roughly 12 hours later, we have an extremely intense hurricane with about 160 mph winds based on the latest reconnaissance aircraft reports. If confirmed, this would make Lee a Category 5 hurricane. Satellite imagery also shows a very well defined eye. The potential track of Lee for next week concerns me a lot in terms of possible impacts here in Southern New England. By about the middle part of next week, it appears that an upper level trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes region and a high pressure ridge over the central North Atlantic should help to steer Lee to the north. The big question at that time will be where will the hurricane be located and this is going to be important for any impacts later on down the road. Some the weather forecast guidance show a storm that’s located just barely east of the Bahamas with other weather forecast guidance showing a storm that’s located just south and southwest of Bermuda by the middle part of next week. What this means is that the further west Lee is located around the middle part of next week, the higher threat it could be to all of Southern New England. On the other hand, a further east location would mean a track that would keep it well east of our area. So turn on those fans and point them east because I do not want Lee to come visiting and neither should you. I want to emphasize extremely strongly that it is WAY too soon to say with any certainty as to what the end game will be with Lee. We are still talking about impacts that may not occur for another 7 to 9 days from now. Because of this, I still wouldn’t trust any model forecast on the exact location of Lee. I also wouldn’t trust any model forecast with the placement and orientation of troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressures this far out. At this point though, my thinking is that we could see the center of Lee pass right over or just barely east of the Cape before heading up into Maine. Time table on this possibly occurring looks to be possibly around next Friday into next Saturday. Should this type of track occur, it would put Western and Central Mass on the much rainier side of the storm, but with the extremely wet summer we had, this would not be good news. In addition, some very gusty winds would also occur, especially over Central Mass. It should be noted that a track near or over the Cape would mean the Cape would get raked very hard, possibly. That said, I’m just “spit balling” here for now and this is just a very preliminary look at what I’m thinking. A lot will change with the forecasts around Lee and I strongly urge you to keep close tabs on the progress of this storm.

Heat & Humidity Will Persist Throughout The Rest Of This Week Across Western & Central Mass

Lots of sunshine is expected for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with increasing heat and humidity as the week progresses. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be between 85 and 90 Degrees. High temperatures Thursday will be between 90 and 95 Degrees. It is expected that a slow moving frontal boundary will make its way across the region as we get into late Friday into the weekend. This means that there looks to be some scattered showers and thunderstorms for Friday afternoon and Friday evening. On and off showers with isolated thunderstorms look to be a threat for Saturday and Sunday. Turning to next week and beyond - Focus may have to turn to the tropics as what's likely to become Tropical Storm and then Hurricane Lee may be lurking well to the south by early next week. It looks like an upper level trough of low pressure may set up again across the eastern United States by early next week leading to this storm to be booted out into the open Atlantic. That said, I want to point out that any “guaranteed” forecast of this system not being a threat to anyone or a “guaranteed” forecast of it being a threat/hit to some part of the US East Coast should not be believed at all. We are talking about a forecast that’s still 10-plus days away and a lot can change in the weather pattern between now and then. Any model guidance forecast for an upper-level weather pattern for a week away is not set in stone. Some things in the weather pattern that we’re going to have to watch include part of that eastern US trough cutting off this weekend into next week and a stronger than forecast high pressure ridge over Atlantic Canada. Should this occur, it would block future Lee from heading out into the North Atlantic. In fact, I wouldn’t trust any model forecast on the location and strength of future Lee this far out. I also wouldn’t trust any model forecast with the placement and orientation of troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressures this far out. Low pressure troughs can be lures as well as deflectors of tropical systems, depending on their strength and location. For now though, I think that its possible that far eastern New England, including the Cape and Downeast Maine may really need to watch the progress of this system as it could be a very serious threat to you for late next week and next weekend (September 15-17 period).

For Western and Central Mass, I don't see future-Lee being a serious threat at this time. That said, this is not a sure thing either and it's a system that does merit close watching.