Rain On Thanksgiving Will Be Followed By The Coldest Start To A December Since 2017 Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: Skies will become cloudy by midnight tonight as an area of low pressure approaches from the west.

Precipitation in the form of rain will begin across Western Mass by sunrise Thursday morning. The exception looks to be across the Berkshires where the precipitation will be in the form of snow when it begins around sunrise Thursday morning.

Low temperatures will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Thanksgiving Day: That low pressure system is expected to track right across Southern New England during Thanksgiving Day bringing with it a cold rain across a majority of the area.

Rain will be falling over Western Mass by sunrise Thursday morning with the rain beginning across Central Mass by about 8-9 am Thursday morning.

Rain is then expected to fall throughout the rest of the day on Thanksgiving across a majority of the area. The exception looks to be during the morning across the Berkshires and the far northern Worcester Hills where some snow is expected during the morning. Even here, the snow looks to change to rain during the afternoon. Any snow accumulations will be about an inch over the far northern Worcester Hills and about 1 to 3 inches of snowfall over the Berkshires mostly during the morning.

The rain will come to an end across the entire area between about 7 pm and 9 pm Thursday evening.

Rainfall totals of between one half of an inch (0.50”) and three quarters of an inch (0.75”) can be expected with the rain on Thanksgiving.

High temperatures on Thanksgiving will range from near 35 Degrees in the Berkshires and the northern Worcester Hills to near 40 Degrees across areas near and south of the Mass Pike. Winds will be East at 8 to 16 mph.

Bottom line is that it will be a cold, raw and wet day on Thanksgiving.

Friday: Once that low pressure system pulls away from the area, it will begin to pull down the coldest air so far this season into the area.

A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected on Friday. High temperatures Friday will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph.

Saturday Through Sunday: A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to push into the region during the day on Saturday. This means that Sunday will be the colder of the two days this weekend.

Saturday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 35 and 40 Degrees.

Sunday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 30 and 35 Degrees.

The Coldest Start To A December Since 2017 Is Still Expected: It’s still expected that the first half of December will be quite cold with below average to even well below average temperatures expected. This still looks to be the coldest start to a December since 2017.

The question continues to be whether or not any storms will take advantage of this cold air and give us snow during the first half of December. I do still like our chances for the possibility of at least a couple of chances at some accumulating snow. The dates I’m eyeing for accumulating snow are perhaps a light snowfall on December 5th and maybe a light to moderate snowfall sometime between December 9th and December 11th. Should this occur, it would mean we would certainly have some snow on the ground for the first part of the holiday season.

Widespread Showers Expected Much Of The Day Tuesday Across Western & Central Mass; A Stormy Thanksgiving Then Looks Likely

For Tonight: An area of high pressure will gradually push to the east tonight. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary is expected to approach the region from the west.

Skies will be clear this evening but will become cloudy after midnight. Low temperatures will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 5 to 10 mph before midnight and Light and Variable after midnight.

Tuesday: A cold front is expected to move through the region during the day Tuesday. This front will bring with it widespread showers to the area throughout the day Tuesday.

Showers are expected to increase in coverage during the morning so that by late morning, there will be widespread shower activity across the entire area. This widespread shower activity is expected to continue through the first half of the afternoon before coming to an end during the late afternoon hours.

Rainfall totals during the day on Tuesday will be between one quarter of an inch (0.25”) and one half of an inch (0.50”). Not a lot, I know, but at least it’s something more in terms of rainfall.

Behind that front, skies are expected to clear out by early evening with clear skies expected throughout Tuesday night.

High temperatures Tuesday will be near 50 Degrees. Low temperatures Tuesday night will be between 30 and 35 Degrees.

Winds on Tuesday will be Southeast at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and the winds are expected to become West and increase to 15 to 20 mph by mid and late afternoon hours. Winds on Tuesday night will be West at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday: Nice weather for holiday travel is expected on Wednesday with partly sunny skies expected. High temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Thanksgiving Day: An area of low pressure is expected to track near or right over Southern New England bringing with it a wet Thanksgiving across the entire area. Where this storm tracks in relation to Southern New England is going to be important in determining whether any snow mixes in with the rain or not.

On one hand, it’s possible that we could see a more inland track across central New England, which would lead to all rain across the entire area throughout Thanksgiving Day. This rain then persists into Thursday night before ending. Any snow would be limited to the northern Green Mountains of Vermont, the White Mountains of New Hampshire and western and northern parts of Maine.

A second possible storm scenario is a storm system that tracks along the South Coast of New England which could lead to a slightly chillier precipitation outcome. In this second scenario, we’d see the potential for all rain near and south of the Mass Pike, rain that changes to a rain-snow mix north of the Mass Pike near the end of the storm and rain to start that changes to snow near and north of Route 2.

At this point, I continue to lean much more towards a scenario that produces all rain across a majority of Western and Central Mass throughout the day on Thanksgiving Day and lasts into Thursday night. The exception could be across the northern Worcester Hills, areas near and north of Route 2 and across the Berkshires. Across these areas, it could potentially rain for much of the day Thanksgiving Day but then the rain might mix with and even change to snow during Thursday evening. An inch or two of slushy snowfall could occur over the northern Worcester Hills, the Berkshires and across areas near and north of Route 2.

That all said, expect there will be more refinements and possibly changes to the forecast as we get a better idea of the exact track of this storm system.

High temperatures Thanksgiving Day will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Low temperatures Thursday night will be between 30 and 35 Degrees.

Friday Through The Weekend: Once that low pressure system pulls away from the area, it will pull down the coldest air so far this season into the area.

A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected on Friday with high temperatures near 40 Degrees.

Saturday looks sunny and windy with high temperatures between 35 and 40 Degrees.

Sunday looks sunny to partly sunny, cold and windy with high temperatures near 35 Degrees.

The Coldest Start To A December In 10 Years Can Be Expected: It’s still expected that the first part of December will start out quite cold with below average temperatures. All indications are pointing towards the beginning of December being the coldest in about 10 years or so.

The question continues to be whether or not any storms will take advantage of this cold air and give us a snowy start to December. This is something that’s almost impossible to answer until we get much closer in time. That said, I do like our chances for the possibility of a snowy start to December and to actually get some snow on the ground to start the holiday season.

Sunshine Returns For Sunday & Monday & Then We Look Towards A Possible Storm From Thanksgiving Night Through Friday Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: Generally partly cloudy skies are expected this evening. Clear skies are then expected during the after midnight hours of tonight. In addition, it will be windy throughout tonight with wind gusts of up to 35 mph expected.

Low temperatures will be near 35 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Sunday: Lots of sunshine can be expected throughout the day on Sunday and it will be quite windy with wind gusts of up to 40 mph expected.

High temperatures will be between 43 and 48 Degrees. Winds will be West at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Monday: An area of high pressure will control the weather throughout the day on Monday. This means that skies will be sunny throughout the day on Monday along with gradually diminishing winds.

High temperatures will be between 45 and 50 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the morning and West at 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon.

Monday Night & Tuesday: A pretty robust cold front is expected to push across the region during the day on Tuesday. This front will bring with it widespread showers during the day on Tuesday.

Monday night will start out with clear skies during the evening. Skies will then become cloudy during the after midnight hours. Low temperatures will be near 35 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph before midnight and Southeast at 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday will be cloudy and there will be widespread showers around. Most of the showers look to occur from about mid to late morning until about mid-afternoon. High temperatures Tuesday will be near 50 Degrees.

Wednesday: A sunny, but windy day will make for a good holiday travel day. High temperatures will be near 45 Degrees.

Thanksgiving Day Through Friday: The weather forecast guidance continues to point towards the potential for a storm to affect the area beginning on Thursday night and continuing through Friday. While it looks pretty likely that there will be a storm affecting the area, there is quite a bit of uncertainty as to what type of precipitation will fall (snow, rain or a mixture of snow and rain).

Taking a look at the weather setup for this storm reveals that a large upper level trough of low pressure will lock itself over the Northeastern United States late next week. This will lead to a cold air mass to be in place over the region as that storm is moving into the area.

The depth of the cold air and also the storm track and strength are going to be important in determining which areas of Western and Central Mass sees snow or rain.

At this point, the exact track of the storm system is uncertain and because of this what sort of precipitation falls is also uncertain. There are a few track scenarios that could occur:

The first is a low pressure system that tracks inland across northern New England which would lead to mostly all rain across the entire area.

The second scenario is for the low pressure system to track right over Southern New England leading to a light to moderate amount of snow to occur across much of the area.

A third possible storm track scenario is for that low pressure system to track well south of the area, which would leave us high and dry with no snow, but with cold weather.

My Thinking As Of Right Now Is That we’ll probably see the low pressure system track across central New England. While this would probably mean accumulating snow across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, it would probably mean a mixed bag of precipitation across Western and Central Mass for Thursday night and Friday.

A setup with the low pressure system tracking over Central New England would possibly mean mostly rain across areas near and south of the Mass Pike, rain mixed with snow across areas north of the Mass Pike and maybe mostly all snow for areas north of Route 2. Again, this would occur on Thursday night through Friday.

The weather during the daylight hours of Thanksgiving Day look dry, but there will be an increase in clouds throughout the day.

Obviously, this is just my thoughts as of right now and this forecast will likely change in the coming days.

High temperatures Thanksgiving Day will be near 40 Degrees. Low temperatures Thursday night will be near 35 Degrees. High temperatures Friday will be between 35 and 40 Degrees.

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