1 To 2 Inches Of Rain Expected From Monday Through Monday Night & Into Tuesday Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: Cloudy skies are expected throughout tonight. In addition, there may be a few showers around from time to time. Low temperatures will be between 57 and 62 Degrees. Winds will be South at around 10 mph.

1 To 2 Inches Of Rain Is Expected From Monday Through Monday Night & Into Tuesday: It is looking fairly likely that all of Western and Central Mass is going to have a much needed soaking of rain that lasts from Monday through Monday night and into Tuesday. Additionally, repeating bands of heavy rain could affect the lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and far southern parts of Worcester County leading to the possibility of localized flooding.

An area of low pressure and its associated warm front is expected to lift northward into Southern New England during Monday and Monday night. A east-southeasterly wind flow on the northern side of this warm front will pull in a lot of Atlantic moisture into the region. This will lead to rain occurring across the entire area & heavy rain occurring from the lower Pioneer Valley eastward to far southern parts of Worcester County during Monday, Monday night and Tuesday.

Occasional periods of rain is expected during the day on Monday across areas north of the Mass Pike. For areas near and south of the Mass Pike, a steady rain is expected throughout the day on Monday. High temperatures Monday will be between 67 and 71 Degrees. Winds will be East to Southeast at around 10 mph.

Turning to Monday night, rain is expected throughout the night across the entire area. The rain is expected to be heavy at times across the lower Pioneer Valley and across southern parts of Worcester County during Monday night & especially during the after midnight hours. Low temperatures will be around 55 Degrees. Winds will be East to Northeast at around 10 mph.

Rain is expected to continue through Tuesday morning before it comes to an end during Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Total Rainfall Amounts: I do think that a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain can be expected across all of Western and Central Mass. This is a very manageable amount of rain & the ground will not only be able to soak it in with no issues, but it’ll also be very welcome.

There is the possibility that the lower Pioneer Valley, including the Springfield Metro & far southern parts of Worcester County (south of the Mass Pike) may end up with 2 to 2-1/2 inches of rain. While this shouldn’t be enough to produce widespread flooding, it may be enough to produce areas of flooding, especially in low-lying areas & areas of poor drainage.

The highest rainfall totals from this upcoming storm look to occur across a large part of Connecticut into Rhode Island where localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches is a possibility. Anyone reading this from Connecticut and Rhode Island, be aware that more widespread flooding is a definite possibility, especially during Monday afternoon and Monday night.

Wednesday Through Friday: Drier air is expected to move back into the area for Wednesday. Skies during the day on Wednesday will be partly sunny & high temperatures will be between 80 and 85 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be around 60 Degrees.

Thursday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 85 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees.

A cold front is expected to move through the area sometime during Friday afternoon or Friday evening. This means that skies on Friday look partly sunny. In addition, there is expected to be some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. High temperatures will be near 85 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be between 60 and 65 Degrees.

Next Weekend’s Weather Outlook: Current indications seem to suggest that decent weather is possible throughout all of next weekend.

Saturday looks sunny with high temperatures between 80 and 85 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be in the mid 50s.

Next Sunday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 80 and 85 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be near 60 Degrees.

5 pm Weather Update For Western & Central Mass

Right now, all is quiet across Western and Central Mass & I think that things will remain quiet for the next couple of hours or so.

Beyond this, there are a couple of areas of thunderstorms that I'll be watching.

The first area of thunderstorms are found across southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire. These thunderstorms are moving in a east-southeast to southeast direction. It is possible that some of these thunderstorms may brush northern parts of Worcester County, mainly along and north of Route 2 around and just after 8 pm this evening. A majority of these thunderstorms over southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire should miss a large part of our area.

The second area of thunderstorms that I'm watching are located across central and west-central New York State between about Syracuse and Oneonta. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east-southeast and southeast at a forward speed of about 35-40 mph.

Based on the current forward motion of these thunderstorms, it seems possible that a majority of them may miss a large part of Western and Central Mass and instead move across Connecticut between about 8 pm and 11 pm this evening.

That being said, it's possible that the northern end of these thunderstorms may impact the southern Berkshires and perhaps the lower Pioneer Valley between about 8 and 10 pm this evening & it is something that I'll be watching. For now, the rest of Western and Central Mass may miss being affected by these storms, but I'll be watching just in case.

Some Scattered Showers & Thunderstorms Can Be Expected Across Western & Central Mass This Afternoon & This Evening

It appears that there will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms around at times across the entire area throughout this afternoon & this evening as a frontal boundary gradually sinks southward across the region.

At the time of this post, radar imagery indicated that heavy downpours have developed over the southern Berkshires into parts of northwestern Connecticut. These heavy downpours are moving in a southeasterly direction & thus these particular downpours will not be a threat to the area.

I do think that we will see some increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms as the afternoon progresses with most of the showers and thunderstorms occurring across areas near and south of the Mass Pike. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms are then expected to persist into this evening across the area.

It should be noted that the highest areas of unstable air are found to the southwest of our area across areas from central and southwestern Connecticut and southern and southeastern New York State southward into the Mid-Atlantic states. This is where I think most of the thunderstorm activity will occur later this afternoon and tonight. Also, this is the area where I think most of the severe weather will occur.

That being said, the atmosphere is unstable across the entire area & this means that some of the thunderstorms may be on the strong side. Any strong thunderstorms may produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours.

I will be keeping a very close eye on things throughout this afternoon & will have updates as needed. I know many of you have outdoor plans this afternoon and this evening. My advice to you is to not cancel those plans, but at the same time, keep a close eye on the weather.

Also, those of you that you will be outdoors this afternoon & evening, I urge you to drink lots of fluids, find a shaded spot to hang out & be aware if you are getting too hot. If you do find yourself becoming too hot, find an air-conditioned spot immediately as the risk of heat exhaustion and heat stroke will be high due to the continuing heat & humidity.