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The uncertainty with exactly when the rain will change to snow and how much snow may accumulate during Saturday and Saturday night remains very high. One big reason why there is so much uncertainty is because this storm is going to have to produce its own cold air from its rapid strengthening and the amount of energy it produces. This is something that the weather forecast guidance struggles with most times. There are three ways that this forecast could go “south”. The First Way is that the temperatures don’t fall quick enough during the day on Saturday leading to either the rain not changing to snow at all or not occurring until the very end of the storm. The Second Way is if the precipitation shield from this storm moves out just as the rain is changing to snow. This would lead to the rain changing to snow on Saturday morning, but ending quickly around early afternoon Saturday. It would also lead to the heaviest snow amounts occurring in Maine with very light accumulations here in Western and Central Mass. The Third Way is if we change from rain to snow during Saturday morning and then see several hours of moderate to heavy snow on Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening as a band of particularly heavy snow sets up from the eastern Hilltowns of Western Mass into much of Worcester County. Should this occur, it would mean upwards of a foot of snow could accumulate in this region. With that said, Here Are My Thoughts: Rain will overspread all of Western and Central Mass this evening and then continue throughout the rest of the night tonight. The rain, I think, will change to snow fairly quickly across Western and Central Mass by mid to late morning Saturday. Snow then continues through Saturday afternoon and I think that a band of heavy snow with snowfall accumulation rates upwards of 2 inches per hour may set up from much of Worcester County westward into the eastern hilltowns of Western Mass. This heavy snow is expected to occur throughout Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening and travel may be extremely difficult during this time due to the heavy snow rates. The snow will continue through Saturday evening before coming to an end just after midnight Saturday night. Our latest snowfall total forecast map is attached to this post. This is going to be a wet, sticky and very heavy snow and I do have considerable concerns that we may see snapped tree limbs and downed power lines due to the wet, heavy snow accumulation across Worcester County into the eastern hilltowns of Western Mass. North winds are also expected to gust up to 30 to 40 mph at times and this will add to the threat for snapped tree limbs and downed power lines from the eastern hilltowns of Western Mass through Worcester County. Please be aware that the forecast of this storm continues to be VERY uncertain and additional changes to the forecast may be needed.


Thank you for reading my latest forecast for Western and Central Mass. I do not charge for this information, but I am asking for donations to offset operating costs. All donations go to directly offsetting my costs of running Route 20 Weather which include (but not limited to) website hosting & bandwidth, subscriptions to weather data services, as well as electricity and broadband internet. Any amount that you can donate is truly appreciated! Donations can be made by PayPal using E-Mail address contact@route20weather.com or by going to https://www.route20weather.com/donate . If you would rather donate by check or money order, please e-mail me at contact@route20weather.com & I can send you my mailing address. Thank you again for your support of Route 20 Weather!

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The latest weather guidance I look at seems to be pushing our storm system a bit further east with its forecast track. This could do two things - first is allow enough cold air to push into the area quicker than previously thought & two is focus the highest snow amounts across Central and Northeast Mass rather than Western Mass.

So, it still looks as if rain will overspread the entire area during Friday afternoon and Friday evening. The rain is likely to continue throughout Friday night and Saturday morning.

During Saturday afternoon, the rain is expected to change to snow across all of Western and Central Mass with the snow continuing through Saturday night. It looks like the snow will be light in intensity across Western Mass with a bit more heavier intensity in snowfall across Central Mass where a period of moderate to heavy snow is possible late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. The snow is expected to come to an end during the first part of Sunday morning. My latest snowfall accumulation forecast map is attached to this post. Please be aware that the forecast of this storm continues to be VERY uncertain and additional changes to the forecast may be needed. It's possible that the storm system may track even further east and if that happens, it could limit the area of heavier snow amounts (3-7") to areas along and inside of 495 with little snow occurring along and west of I-91.


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For Tonight: An area of high pressure will begin to build into the area tonight. This means that any early evening clouds and snow flurries will give way to clear to partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures tonight will be near 25 Degrees. Thursday: An area of high pressure will control the weather throughout Thursday. Plenty of sunshine is expected on Thursday with high temperatures between 45 and 50 Degrees. In addition, much lighter winds are expected on Thursday. Friday: Moisture ahead of a developing storm system over the southeastern United States is expected to reach Southern New England during Friday. This means that skies on Friday will be cloudy and there may be some rain shower activity during the afternoon. High temperatures Friday will be between 45 and 50 Degrees. Weekend Storm System Expected Across Western & Central Mass: A storm system is expected to head across southeastern Mass on Saturday afternoon before moving towards Eastern Maine and Nova Scotia on Saturday night. This is a complicated forecast and it is a forecast that is probably going to change over the next couple of days, so stay tuned. The two uncertain parts of this forecast are the exact track of the storm in relation to Southern New England and how much cold air will this storm be able to tap into. A storm that tracks across the Cape on Saturday may be able to pull down just enough cold air for the rain to change to snow across the Berkshires and along and north of Route 2 during later Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. The changeover from rain to snow may occur across all of Western and Central Mass during Saturday night with snow gradually ending on Sunday morning. One thing that is for certain is that I don’t think that this will be an all rain event and I also don’t think that this will be an all snow event either. Instead, we may be looking at something where it rains for a while on Saturday and then changes to snow during Saturday night. Here is my thinking as of right now – Rain overspreads all of Western and Central Mass during Friday night with rain continuing through Saturday morning. During Saturday afternoon, the rain is expected to change to snow from northwest to southeast across the Berkshires and along and north of Route 2. Elsewhere across the region, rain is expected to continue. Snow is expected to continue on Saturday night into Sunday morning before ending across the Berkshires and along and north of Route 2. Elsewhere, rain may change to snow across the rest of Western and Central Mass during Saturday night with snow continuing into Sunday morning. All precipitation is expected to come to an end around midday Sunday. It is too early to even start mentioning how much snow may accumulate this weekend, especially considering how complicated and uncertain the forecast is. I have created a preliminary map of what to expect this weekend & an extremely early call at possible snow amounts. As I already mentioned, this is a forecast that will likely change over the next couple of days – so, keep checking back!



Thank you for reading my latest forecast for Western and Central Mass. I do not charge for this information, but I am asking for donations to offset operating costs. All donations go to directly offsetting my costs of running Route 20 Weather which include (but not limited to) website hosting & bandwidth, subscriptions to weather data services, as well as electricity and broadband internet. Any amount that you can donate is truly appreciated! Donations can be made by PayPal using E-Mail address contact@route20weather.com or by going to https://www.route20weather.com/donate . If you would rather donateby check or money order, please e-mail me at contact@route20weather.com & I can send you my mailing address. Thank you again for your support of Route 20 Weather!

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