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Thunderstorms Will Continue To Be A Threat Through Monday Across Western & Central Mass

Thunderstorms are going to be a threat from time to time over the next couple of days or so as a frontal boundary hangs out close to our area.

Some scattered thunderstorms will continue to be a threat this evening before there's a break for a while after midnight tonight. Another round of scattered thunderstorms could be a threat near sunrise Sunday morning.

Turning to Sunday, it appears that there could be a few round of thunderstorms during the day. First round looks to be during the late morning and early afternoon hours. A second round of scattered thunderstorms are likely during the late afternoon and evening hours of Sunday. A third round of scattered thunderstorms are possible well after midnight Sunday night.

On Monday, some leftover scattered thunderstorms are possibly first thing Monday morning. A break in the action looks possible the rest of the day with another round of thunderstorms possible later Monday afternoon.

Partly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday with another threat for thunderstorms expected on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Latest Update On Hurricane Lee As It Pertains To Southern New England: Some westerly wind shear of 10-15 knots are still affecting Lee and because of it, the hurricane hasn’t been really able to strengthen over the last 24 hours. It appears that this wind shear should decrease to less than 10 knots as we get into Sunday and Monday. Because of this, it looks possible that we could see another round of robust strengthening during Sunday and Monday with the hurricane strengthening up to about a Category 4 hurricane by Monday and hanging onto that strength through Tuesday.

There continues to be a decent amount of uncertainty as to how close Lee will ultimately pass to Southern New England next weekend.

One of the big unknowns to the forecast is going to be where exactly Lee will turn to the northwest and north. This is going to be important in figuring out who may be at the greatest threat.

I can say the weather forecast guidance are not in good agreement with this aspect of the forecast.

Weather forecast guidance like the GFS and Canadian models show the turn occurring around 65-67 West Longitude with the track producing a near direct impact on Nova Scotia with no impact here in Western & Central Mass. Obviously, this is the best case scenario by far.

The latest European weather model was a bit of a surprise as it now shows Lee getting completely blocked in from the east with one upper level trough missing out on grabbing it and pulling it out to the northeast. Instead, the latest European model shows a scenario of a strong second trough pulling Lee right into eastern New England as a pretty formidable storm next Sunday, which would be absolutely nasty for Western and Central Mass with extremely heavy rain and strong winds next Sunday.

I’m not buying into the solution of the European model, which is a hurricane heading northwestward from about 35 North Latitude, 70 West Longitude right into New England. It would be a historically very unusual track as usually hurricanes hitting New England usually pass very close to 35 North Latitude, 73-75 West Longitude for them to be a problem for our area.

So, while there is a strong likelihood that Lee will turn northwest and north and eventually pass to the west of Bermuda, there is a great amount of uncertainty as to how fast this is will occur. A delay of even a day or so would mean the difference between a hit on Nova Scotia and a direct hit on some part of Southern New England.

Here Are My Thoughts: Based on everything that I’ve looked at, I still think that we may see a track that takes Lee just east of the Cape next weekend, which would possibly lead to some rain for our area. How much will depend on how close the track actually is. If the storm’s track is fairly far east of the Cape, then we’d perhaps see some scattered showers with sunshine from time to time next weekend. On the other hand, if the storm’s track is right over the Cape, then a driving rain with 40-50 mph wind gusts would become likely next weekend.

A lot will still change with the forecasts around Lee. I know there are a number of weddings in the local area next weekend and just know that I'm not only rooting for no impacts all from Lee on our area, but I'm also keeping very close tabs on this storm for our weather next weekend.

More updates on Lee will be sent out as needed in the coming days.

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