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Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Is Likely Thursday Afternoon & Thursday Evening

Thursday is expected to be a busy weather day in terms of strong to severe thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are expected to bring with them flash flooding, strong wind gusts of 50-70 mph, quarter size hail, frequent lightning and a few tornadoes. A robust low pressure system is expected to push eastward from the Great Lakes region during the day on Thursday. A warm front is forecast to lift northward into our area during the morning and this may lead to a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two to occur from about mid-morning to about early afternoon. The main show, so to speak, is expected to accompany a trough of low pressure that moves through during Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. The atmosphere ahead of this trough of low pressure is expected to be at least moderately unstable with fairly strong amounts of low-level wind shear. These ingredients are favorable for a potentially robust severe weather day. One factor that may be detriment to a robust severe weather event is the possibility for a layer of warm and dry air to set up at about 20,000 feet above the ground. This could cap the atmosphere to some extent and lead to thunderstorms having a hard time really exploding up into the sky. This could limit the number of severe thunderstorms that actually occur during Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Here Are My Thoughts On What May Occur Thursday Afternoon & Thursday Evening: Strong to severe thunderstorms look to form initially across eastern New York State around the 1-3 pm time frame Thursday. These storms are expected to push into Western and then Central Mass around the 4-6 pm time frame. These storms are then anticipated to continue into early Thursday evening before pushing off to the southeast and ending by about 10-11 pm. Given the amount of wind shear, the degree of instability and the amount of forcing, we should see the potential for multiple individual supercell thunderstorms rather than a squall line. These severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 50-70 mph, quarter size hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours with a flash flood threat and a few tornadoes. I have been watching the severe weather this afternoon across the lower part of Michigan and so far there has been quite a bit in the way of wind damage due to the thunderstorm activity. This says to me that strong winds probably will be the main threat with the severe weather Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening here in Western and Central Mass. The reason why is because there is a 24 hour teleconnector between severe weather in lower Michigan and southern New England. Meaning if there is severe weather across lower Michigan, we should see similar activity in Southern New England one day later. I am watching the severe weather potential for Thursday afternoon and evening very closely and will have updates as needed. Beyond This, it appears that another round of strong to severe thunderstorms may be in the cards during Saturday afternoon as a cold front crashes into a hot and very humid air mass. The storms Saturday afternoon will have the potential to produce very gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning and torrential downpours with flash flooding. Finally, it is expected to be hot and very humid on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. High temperatures Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be between 90 and 95 Degrees. Heat Index readings on Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be around 100 Degrees.

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