Weather analysis indicates that a stationary currently extends from near southern New Hampshire and southern Vermont westward to near Lake Erie. To the south of this front, the air is hot, humid and very unstable across all of Western and Central Mass. The combination of the forcing of this front and the unstable air mass will lead to another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across Western and Central Mass between about 4-5 pm this afternoon and about midnight tonight. Thunderstorms are now developing across eastern and central New York State. These storms are expected to expand eastward into Western and Central Mass by late this afternoon with at least a couple of rounds of thunderstorms expected through the first half of tonight. Strong wind gusts of up to 60 to 70 mph is likely to be once again the main threat with any severe storms late this afternoon through the first half of tonight. In addition, given the very humid air mass that will be in place, extremely heavy rainfall with localized street flooding will also be a threat. Finally, very frequent lightning will also occur with all of the thunderstorms that occur late this afternoon and tonight. If that wasn’t enough, it appears that we will probably have another round of thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a warm front lifts northward across the area. Some of these thunderstorms may be on the strong to severe side with strong wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph. In addition, a tornado or two is also a possibility as there is likely to be more spin in the atmosphere on Thursday. Finally, I am closely watching Tropical Storm Elsa, which has made landfall in northern Florida. It is expected that Elsa will move northeastward and pass across eastern and southeastern Mass during the day on Friday. For Western and Central Mass, this type of track means that heavy rainfall with embedded thunderstorms will be the main threat, especially on Friday morning. Rainfall amounts on Friday look to average between about 1 to 2 inches with locally higher amounts. Any strong winds with Elsa is expected to be confined to the Cape.
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