An Intense Coastal Storm Looks To Be Either A Glancing Blow Or A Near Miss For Western & Central Mass On Sunday

For Tonight & Thursday: Varying amounts of cloud cover can be expected throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be around 5 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 6 to 12 mph.

Thursday looks to feature a mixture of sunshine and clouds. High temperatures will be between 15 and 20 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday Night & Friday: Yet another shot of Arctic air will push into the area during Thursday night and Friday bringing the possibility of below zero low temperatures on both Thursday night and Friday night.

Thursday night looks clear to partly cloudy with low temperatures between Zero and 5 below zero. Winds will be West to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chill temperatures on Thursday night will be around 20 below zero.

Friday is expected to be sunny to partly sunny and quite cold with high temperatures between 10 and 15 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 15 to 20 mph. Wind chill temperatures during Friday will be 10 to 20 below zero during the morning and around 5 below zero during the afternoon.

Friday night is expected to be clear to partly cloudy with low temperatures between Zero and 5 below zero. Winds will be West to Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. Wind chill temperatures on Friday night will be around 20 below zero.

Saturday: Cold but sunny weather is expected on Saturday with high temperatures around 15 Degrees.

Intense Coastal Storm Looks To Be Either A Glancing Blow Or A Near Miss On Sunday: First things first, I do not think a direct hit is likely from an intense coastal storm system on Sunday across Western & Central Mass (famous last words). Instead, I’m leaning towards either this being a glancing blow or a near miss (a glancing blow seems very slightly more possible than a near miss).

An area of low pressure system is expected to form off of the North Carolina coast on Saturday and Saturday night. This storm system is then expected to rapidly strengthen and become an intense storm as it heads northeastward during the day on Sunday.

The exact track of this storm system in relation to our area remains uncertain. Where this storm system tracks is critical in figuring out what sorts of impacts this storm will have on our weather here across Western and Central Mass. Even slight shifts in the track of the storm can have large changes in the overall weather on Sunday.

Looking at the latest weather forecast guidance reveals that there has been some trends towards a slightly further offshore storm track. This bolsters my confidence in that this will either be a near miss with no snow at all occurring or a glancing blow which would lead to some snow accumulation across the entire area on Sunday.

Here Are My Thoughts: I currently think that this low pressure system will pass just south and east of Nantucket during the day on Sunday. This sort of track will spare all of Western & Central Mass from widespread significant impacts in terms of snow & wind.

Instead, I think that this track may end up being just close enough to bring some snow to Central Mass with either snow showers or no snow at all across Western Mass during the day on Sunday.

As for snow amounts, should this storm bring a glancing blow to the area, it would mean snow amounts that range from nearly nothing across Western Mass to something like 1 to 3 inches or 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation across Central Mass.

Bottom line is that while all options are still on the table from a complete miss to a direct hit, I’m leaning much more towards it being a glancing blow. That being said, we are still 4 days away from this storm affecting our weather & any small changes in the track of the storm would lead to big changes in the forecast for Sunday.

It goes without saying that I’m watching this storm extremely closely & will have more updates for you in the coming days.