A Coastal Storm Is Expected To Bring Rain & Gusty Winds To Western & Central Mass From Sunday Afternoon Until Sometime On Tuesday

For Tonight & Saturday: An area of high pressure is expected to push offshore of the New England during tonight and Saturday.

Clear to partly cloudy skies can be expected throughout tonight with low temperatures near 40 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday looks to start out partly sunny, however, skies will become a mixture of some sunshine and lots of clouds during the afternoon. High temperatures will be between 60 and 65 Degrees. Winds will be South at 5 to 10 mph.

A Coastal Storm Is Expected To Bring Rain & Gusty Winds From Sunday Afternoon Until Tuesday Afternoon: While the chances of a coastal storm impacting the weather with rain & gusty winds between Sunday and Tuesday are there, the exact details and timing of this storm are uncertain.

An area of low pressure is now beginning to form offshore of Florida’s East Coast this afternoon. This storm system is expected to strengthen and head northward reaching the coastal parts of North Carolina on Sunday & then possibly moving as far north as coastal New Jersey on Monday. The uncertainty lies with exactly how far north will the shield of rainfall push before the low pressure system and its rain shield is shunted to the east on Tuesday.

Some of the weather forecast guidance such as the GFS model and the Canadian model shows it raining from Sunday afternoon until Tuesday morning. Other weather forecast guidance such as the most recent European model now shows the rain being beat back by strong high pressure & not arriving until Monday afternoon & only lasting until Tuesday morning.

Needless to say, this coastal storm has actually become more of a headache to forecast and the entire forecast of this storm has become less certain.

Why are we seeing the forecast become more uncertain? The reason seems to have to do with some of the weather guidance showing this low pressure system either being strung out to the northeast or having the development of two low pressure systems leading to the first low heading out to the northeast quickly & the second low causing a delay in the rain.

It is my opinion that the weather forecast guidance is not resolving the evolution of this storm system correctly. Instead, I think that the correct evolution is for one more cohesive low pressure system that stays near the Mid-Atlantic coast and heads towards the south coast of New England as the upper level trough captures it.

What this means for Western & Central Mass is that I think that we’ll probably see rain, which will probably be heavy at times, along with easterly winds that gust up to 40 mph or so at times starting on Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday and even into Tuesday. That being said, this is an uncertain forecast & because of this, changes in the forecast may occur over the next day or so.

Here is my latest forecast for Sunday through Tuesday based on what I’m currently expecting in terms of storm impacts on our area:

Sunday will be cloudy with rain overspread the area from south to north during the afternoon. High temperatures will be near 55 Degrees. Winds will be East to Northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph, especially during the afternoon.

Rain is expected throughout Sunday night and the rain may be heavy at times. In addition, it looks to be windy throughout the night on Sunday night with East to Northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph. Low temperatures will be near 45 Degrees.

Rain is expected to continue throughout the day on Monday. It appears that the rain may be heavy at times during the morning. Windy conditions also look quite possible throughout the day on Monday. High temperatures Monday will be between 50 and 55 Degrees. Winds will be East to Northeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

Steady rain looks to continue throughout Monday night and low temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.

Tuesday looks cloudy and it appears there will probably be occasional light rain from time to time. High temperatures will be near 55 Degrees.

My latest thinking in terms of rainfall totals from this storm are for anywhere between 1 and 2 inches of rainfall to accumulate. That being said, there’s the very real possibility that we could end up receiving more rainfall than what I’m forecasting right now as some data seems to suggest rain totals of upwards of 2 to 3 inches to occur. I’m just not confident enough in the forecast data to go that high in terms of rainfall totals.

I continue to keep close tabs on the progress of this coastal storm and I will be sending out many more updates throughout this weekend.

Wednesday Through Next Friday: Calmer weather looks to overspread the region as our storm system heads away & high pressure tries to build into the area for the second half of next week.

Wednesday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 60 Degrees.

Thursday is expected to be sunny with high temperatures near 55 Degrees.

Next Friday looks sunny with high temperatures between 50 and 55 Degrees.