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3 To 4 Inches Of Rain This Afternoon To Monday Morning Will Lead To Significant Amounts Of Flooding

An extremely potent and wet frontal system is pushing its way eastward from the eastern Great Lakes. This front will slowly move through Southern New England tonight leading to the likelihood of many hours of heavy to very heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms. This will lead to a significant flood threat and I have very serious concerns for quite a bit in the way of flash flooding tonight into Monday morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to overspread the entire area this afternoon with a steady rain moving in around sunset or so today. Extremely heavy rain is expected throughout much of tonight, which will last until just after sunrise Monday morning. This will likely lead to significant flood issues across the entire area.

Once we head through Monday morning, it is expected that a strong cold front will move through, which will usher in a rapid drop in temperatures and a brief changeover from rain to snow by late morning Monday. Any snow that occurs should be brief and be done by early afternoon Monday. Also, any dusting of snow will occur on non-pavement surfaces.

The biggest story, by far, will be the extremely heavy rain with 3 to 4 inches of rain expected with most of that occurring tonight. In addition, there are strong signals in the data that suggest up to 5 inches of rain cannot be ruled out across Central Mass, especially in the area around I-84, I-395 and I-190, as well as across the Worcester Metro.

The threat for significant amounts of flash flooding with the heavy rainfall is both extremely high and extremely concerning. Flooding of rivers, streams and creeks seems quite likely. In addition, flooding of roads, highways and underpasses is also extremely likely tonight into the first part of Monday morning. One thing that could exacerbate the flooding is the fact that the ground is partially frozen and the ground will not be able to absorb the rain that falls leading to increased amounts of runoff and a significant increase in the flood threat.

As for the wind threat this afternoon through Monday, I think that this is a secondary threat as winds this afternoon will be South at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph and winds tonight look to be South at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph. As we get into Monday, winds look to be West to Northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35-40 mph.

So, while isolated to perhaps scattered areas of downed trees with power outages are possible due to the gusty winds pushing over trees that are saturated with rain water, I think the extremely heavy rain and the flood threat is the much, much bigger threat.

Temperatures this afternoon into tonight will be well up into the 50s. Temperatures are then expected to fall to between 40 and 45 Degrees by sunrise Monday morning and then fall further through the 30s during Monday morning. Temperatures will then remain in the middle 30s during Monday afternoon.

More updates on this storm will be posted as needed.


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