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For This Afternoon & Tonight: Lots of clouds with some peeks of sunshine can be expected throughout this afternoon. Temperatures will be around 55 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph.


Clear skies are expected throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Winds will be West to Southwest at 10 to 15 mph.


Monday: An unseasonably mild day is expected on Monday under lots of sunshine. High temperatures will be near 65 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.


Tuesday Through Wednesday: A mild southwesterly wind flow will be in place across the region throughout Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead to temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday to be well up into the 60s & possibly near 70 Degrees in some areas. I expect rapid melting of the snow pack across the region over the next 2 to 3 days leading to rises on rivers and streams. This means that some of the rivers and streams across the region will probably reach flood stage a little later this week & this is something that’ll need to be watched.


Tuesday looks sunny with high temperatures around 65 Degrees. It should be noted that near 70 Degree high temperatures are possible on Tuesday in the Pioneer Valley. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.


Tuesday night will be partly cloudy with low temperatures between 45 and 50 Degrees.


Wednesday is expected to be cloudy & there may be some late day scattered showers around. High temperatures will be near 60 Degrees.


Wednesday Night & Thursday: A strong cold front is expected to push through the area during Thursday. This front will bring an abrupt end to our spring-like warmth.


Wednesday night looks cloudy and there will be some scattered rain showers around. Low temperatures will be near 50 Degrees.


Widespread rain showers are expected throughout Thursday morning. These rain showers may change to some brief snow showers during Thursday afternoon as some much colder air pushes into the region. Morning high temperatures Thursday will be around 55 Degrees with temperatures falling into the 30s during Thursday afternoon.


Friday: Partly sunny skies are expected on Friday with high temperatures around 45 Degrees.

 
 
 

For The Rest Of This Afternoon & Tonight: Lots of clouds can be expected throughout the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will only be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 6 to 12 mph.


Cloudy skies are expected throughout tonight. It should be noted that the combination of residual moisture and below freezing temperatures will lead to areas of black ice across the entire area throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be between 25 and 30 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 5 to 10 mph before midnight and Southwest at 5 to 10 mph after midnight.


This Weekend: A southwesterly wind flow will be in place across the region throughout this weekend. This southwesterly wind flow will pull in some milder air into the region, especially on Sunday.


Saturday looks cloudy with high temperatures between 45 and 50 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.


A frontal boundary is expected to cross the region during Saturday night. I do expect to see some scattered rain showers accompany the front during the overnight hours of Saturday night. Low temperatures will be around 40 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.


Some leftover scattered showers can be expected during Sunday morning. Skies will then gradually become partly sunny during Sunday afternoon. High temperatures will be around 55 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 15 mph.


Next Week’s Weather Outlook: Monday and Tuesday both look quite mild & this will lead to a pretty quick snowmelt across the region (here comes mud season). This, in turn, is likely to lead to some pretty fast rises on the area rivers and streams. Because of this, we are going to have to keep an eye on the potential for river ice jams and the possibility of river and stream flooding during next week.


Monday looks sunny with high temperatures between 60 and 65 Degrees.


Tuesday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 60 and 65 Degrees.


A cold front looks to cross the region during Wednesday. Because of this, I expect widespread showers throughout the day on Wednesday with high temperatures between 45 and 50 Degrees.


Thursday will start out with some leftover scattered showers, but skies look to become partly sunny by afternoon. High temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees.


Next Friday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 45 Degrees.

 
 
 

An area of low pressure is expected to track just to the south of Long Island during tonight. The track of this low pressure is such that it’ll be able to pull down cold enough air to produce a very messy mixture of freezing rain, sleet and even some snow across the entire area starting as soon as late this afternoon and continuing through tonight and Friday morning.


Rain is expected to continue through mid-afternoon as temperatures mostly remain just above freezing across the region.


Things become a lot more complex in terms of when the precipitation will change to freezing rain and then sleet from north to south across the region & also how much sleet and ice accumulates. Trying to figure out the temperatures in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are going to be crucial in determining whether this is going to be an all-out ice storm across parts of the area or if this is going to be a sleet storm across much of the area tonight. Only a 1 to 2 degree Celsius change in the temperature is going to mean the difference between almost all sleet or almost all freezing rain. Not an easy forecast!!


I do think that areas north of the Mass Pike will change from rain to freezing rain by about 5-7 pm today. Areas near and south of the Mass Pike look to change from rain to freezing rain by about 7-9 pm or so this evening. The exception to this looks to be the lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass where rain may just change to sleet this evening between about 8 and 10 pm or so.


During tonight, I think that areas north of the Mass Pike will gradually change from freezing rain to a sleet storm between about 10 pm and midnight. Sleet then continues across areas north of the Mass Pike during the after midnight hours of tonight. It should be noted that the northern Worcester Hills may change from sleet to snow at some point during the after midnight hours.


For areas near and south of the Mass Pike, the predominant precipitation type may end up being freezing rain throughout tonight. This is something that’ll need to be watched very closely as ice amounts of over one quarter (0.25”) of an inch to perhaps up to one third (0.33”) of an inch could lead to ice buildup on trees and power lines leading to scattered power outages.


One big wildcard to tonight’s forecast is going to be whether there is a burst of snow during the after midnight hours of tonight or not. Should this occur, then there could be a quick few inches of wet snow that accumulates across northern Worcester County. In fact, some of the high-resolution model guidance show quite a heavy burst of snow pushing as far south as Worcester, the I-290 corridor & the Route 9 corridor during the after midnight hours of tonight. I’m not buying into that high-resolution guidance yet, but it’s something to certainly watch.


Turning to Friday morning, snow across the northern Worcester Hills, sleet across areas north of the Mass Pike and freezing rain across areas near and south of the Mass Pike will come to an end by mid-morning.


It goes without saying that roads are going to be one big mess tonight across the entire area. Freezing rain and then sleet across areas north of the Mass Pike will lead to some slick conditions during all of tonight. Freezing rain near and south of the Mass Pike will produce some icy conditions on roads and all other surfaces. It’s likely to be slick out there tonight!!


Additionally, the Friday morning commute is likely to be a mess as well due to snow across the northern Worcester Hills, sleet across areas north of the Mass Pike and freezing rain near and south of the Mass Pike.


 
 
 
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