Rain Is Expected From Thursday Afternoon Through Friday With The Possibility Of A Change To Some Wet Snow Friday Afternoon & Friday Evening Across Some Parts Of Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon Through Wednesday: A westerly wind flow is expected to be in place across the region from this afternoon through Wednesday. This means that dry conditions can be expected across Western and Central Mass.

A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected throughout this afternoon. Temperatures will be near 55 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph.

Wednesday is looking like a day where we’ll see a mixture of sunshine and clouds. High temperatures will be around 55 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 15 mph in the morning and West at 6 to 12 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Through Saturday: It appears that we are going to turn rainy as we get into Thursday, Thursday night and Friday as an area of low pressure tracks off of the Mid-Atlantic coast and heads towards coastal parts of Southern New England. The big question with this forecast is whether the rain will change to any wet snow or not during Friday and Friday night.

While the weather guidance is in pretty good agreement on the idea that it’s going to rain starting Thursday afternoon and then last through Thursday night and Friday, they are in poor agreement with each other in the forecast of whether the rain will change to some wet snow during Friday and Friday night.

Some of the weather forecast guidance such as the European model keeps the precipitation as mostly all rain from Thursday through Friday. Although, even this model does show a rain-snow mix to possibly occur across the Berkshires and the northern Worcester Hills during Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

Other weather forecast guidance such as the GFS model and especially the Canadian model seems to suggest a definite flip from rain to wet snow across much of Central Mass (areas east of Worcester and across the Blackstone Valley stays as all rain) and across parts of Western Mass (the Pioneer Valley stays as rain) during Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

So, Here Are My Thoughts: I do still think that a majority of the late week storm will be rain. That said, there could be just enough cold air pulled in during Friday afternoon and Friday evening for the rain to at least mix with wet snow & maybe even change to all wet snow in the hills. Even if this occurs, I think any snow accumulation will be limited to a very slushy inch at most on non-pavement and grassy surfaces.

Rain looks to begin across all of Western and Central Mass by early Thursday afternoon. The rain is then expected to continue through Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. I do think that the intensity of the rain will be mainly light to occasionally moderate. High temperatures Thursday will be near 50 Degrees. Winds on Thursday will be East at around 10 mph. Low temperatures Thursday night will be between 35 and 40 Degrees.

Turning to Friday, rain looks to continue through the morning hours across all of Western and Central Mass. As we get into Friday afternoon and Friday evening, it’s possible that the rain will mix with or even perhaps change to some wet snow across parts of Western and Central Mass. Areas that have the best chance of seeing a change from rain to wet snow looks to be across the Worcester Hills, across the hilltowns of Western Mass and across the Berkshires. Lower elevation areas & especially valley locations will probably stay as all rain during Friday afternoon and Friday evening.

Up to one inch of very slushy snow on non-pavement surfaces and grassy surfaces is possible across the Worcester Hills, the hilltowns of Western Mass and across the Berkshires. I want to emphasize that roads and other paved surfaces will very likely stay wet even if the rain changes to wet snow.

High temperatures Friday will be around 40 Degrees. Low temperatures Friday night will be between 30 and 35 Degrees.

During Saturday, I expect to see cloudy skies throughout the day. In addition, I do think that we will see some on and off scattered rain and snow showers throughout the day. No snow accumulation is anticipated from any of the snow shower activity. High temperatures will be near 40 Degrees.

Sunday: Sunday looks cloudy & it’s possible that there could be a couple of isolated showers around from time to time. High temperatures will be near 45 Degrees.

A Few Showers Are Expected This Afternoon With Some Rain Possible From Thursday Night Through Friday Across Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon & Tonight: A west to northwest wind flow is expected to be in place across the region during this afternoon. At the same time this is occurring, it is expected that a weather disturbance will cross the region.

This means that generally cloudy skies can be expected during this afternoon. In addition, a few showers can be expected during this afternoon, especially during the early and mid-afternoon hours. Temperatures this afternoon will be near 55 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 15 to 20 mph.

Partly cloudy skies are expected during tonight. Low temperatures will be near 35 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Through Wednesday: Tuesday is expected to be a partly sunny day with high temperatures between 55 and 60 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph.

Clear skies are expected during Tuesday night with low temperatures between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 55 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday: An area of low pressure is expected to take shape near the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. This storm system is going to play a factor in our weather for Thursday night and Friday with its lingering effects persisting through the weekend.

Skies are expected to become cloudy during the day on Thursday. In addition, some rain looks to move in by about sunset Thursday. High temperatures will be near 50 Degrees.

Thursday Night & Friday: That low pressure system is expected to track off of the Mid-Atlantic coast during Thursday night and then track to the south and east of the Cape during Friday.

The weather guidance are not in good agreement on the effects this storm will have on our area & thus the uncertainty with the late week weather is moderate.

Some guidance such as the GFS model is showing a much closer track to the region & thus would tuck in mild enough air to keep the precipitation as all rain across all of Western and Central Mass throughout Thursday night and Friday.

Other weather guidance such as the European model seems to show a more offshore track, which would keep a majority of the rain to our south and east, although some light rain could occur during the day on Friday.

At this point, all of the model guidance have trended away from showing wet snow during the day on Friday. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, I was very skeptical with the guidance that were showing accumulating snow with the late week system & thus this trending towards all rain is not a surprise to me.

At this point, I think that we’ll see some rain occur during Thursday night and Friday. At this point, it appears that the intensity of the rain should be light & probably will be more in the way of a heavy drizzle at times with light rain occurring occasionally at times.

Low temperatures Thursday night will be near 40 Degrees. High temperatures Friday will be near 50 Degrees.

This Weekend: As that low pressure system pulls away, it’ll leave a northwesterly unstable air mass in its place. This means that lots of clouds can be expected throughout this weekend & there will be some scattered showers around from time to time.

Saturday looks cloudy & there will be some scattered showers around from time to time. It should be noted that there could be enough cold air aloft to produce mixed scattered rain and snow showers across the Berkshires and across the northern Worcester Hills during Saturday. No snow accumulation is expected. High temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees.

Sunday looks cloudy & it’s possible that there could be a couple of isolated showers around from time to time. High temperatures will be near 45 Degrees.

Saturday Evening Weather Update Regarding A Possible Storm Late Next Week Across Western & Central Mass

Since social media is abuzz & filled with hype regarding the possibility of a storm late next week, I wanted to give everyone "my take" on what could occur.

The weather setup for late next week is expected to consist of an area of low pressure forming over the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. This low pressure system is then expected to track northeastward and move near Southern New England as we get into Thursday night and Friday. At the same time this is occurring, there is the possibility of cold air being pulled into the area while it rains. If, and this is a HUGE if, this does occur, it could lead to temperatures eventually being cold enough to support the rain changing to some wet snow later Thursday night and during Friday.

MY TAKE ON THIS IS THAT a cold rain will begin during Thursday evening and continue through the rest of the night Thursday night. This rain could mix with or even change to wet snow by the predawn hours of Friday morning. Wet snow or a mixture of rain and wet snow is then possible during Friday morning. As we get into Friday afternoon, it’s possible that the wet snow or mix rain and snow could change back to a cold rain. All precipitation will come to an end sometime on Friday night or Saturday morning.

Now, the areas that I think has the higher chances of seeing wet snow late Thursday night and Friday morning will be across areas of Central Mass that are north of the Mass Pike & especially in the Worcester Hills & also across the Hilltowns & the Berkshires of Western Mass.

I don't even want to discuss possible snow accumulations for a couple of reasons - First, any snow will likely be pretty wet & slushy in content & because of this, it would have a really hard time accumulating. The second reason is because this is still a 6 day forecast & putting snow amounts in a 6-day forecast is pretty irresponsible & would be plain hype. Beware of any social media weather pages that are posting snow maps. They are pure hype & should be viewed as such.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT this potential storm is still some 6 days away and because of this, the uncertainty with the forecast is moderate to high. Because of this, changes to the forecast are almost guaranteed & thus, I will be sending out updates on the latest in the coming days as needed.