For This Afternoon: An upper level low pressure system is expected to continue pushing westward this afternoon. This means that lots of clouds with areas of drizzle and some scattered showers are expected across Central Mass. Meanwhile, Western Mass and especially areas from the Connecticut River Valley and points westward may be far enough away from the upper level low so that a mixture of sunshine and clouds will persist throughout this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will range from around 50 Degrees across Central Mass to 55 to 60 Degrees across Western Mass. Winds will be North at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Tonight: Pretty much the same sort of weather can be expected tonight with Western Mass seeing partly cloudy skies and Central Mass seeing cloudy skies with areas of drizzle and some scattered showers. Low temperatures tonight will be between 45 and 50 Degrees. Winds will be North at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Monday: That upper level low pressure system will slowly shift to the east away from our area during Monday. Much like today, the nicest weather on Monday will occur across Western Mass with generally partly sunny skies expected. Across Central Mass, another day with lots of clouds, areas of drizzle and some scattered showers can be expected. High temperatures will be near 65 Degrees. Winds will be North at 10 to 20 mph. Tuesday: A cold front is expected to drop southeastward into the region during the afternoon and evening. Weather forecast guidance seems to be trending towards a scenario that has this cold front interacting with a somewhat unstable air mass. Also, there is going to be ample amounts of very cold air aloft leading to favorable conditions for not only thunderstorm development, but also for these storms to be hail producers. The big question with the forecast for Tuesday is how much sunshine will there be. On one hand, if we are still socked in the clouds, then the amount of unstable air will be meager leading to more showers and little in the way of thunderstorms. On the other hand, should there be at least some sunshine on Tuesday, then the atmosphere may be unstable enough to produce thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Something to watch, for sure. For now, I’m going with a mixture of some sunshine and lots of clouds during Tuesday. In addition, fairly widespread showers and some thunderstorms are expected across the entire area during the afternoon and early evening hours. A couple of the thunderstorms may be on the strong side and capable of producing small hail, very gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. High temperatures will be near 70 Degrees. Winds will be Northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Wednesday Through Friday: Yet another upper level low pressure system will park itself over the region for the second half of this coming week. This means that there will be a threat for scattered showers every afternoon from Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday looks cloudy with scattered afternoon showers. High temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Thursday looks like there will be a mixture of sunshine and clouds with scattered afternoon showers. High temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Friday looks partly sunny with some scattered afternoon showers around. High temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Weather Outlook For Next Weekend: That upper level low pressure system looks to finally move to the east with an area of high pressure pushing into the region for next weekend. This, hopefully, will mean more sunshine and warmer temperatures for next weekend. Saturday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 75 Degrees. Next Sunday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees.
Thunderstorms Expected This Afternoon & This Evening: The main weather story for this afternoon will be the coverage and intensity of thunderstorms that are expected to accompany a southward moving cold front. Moisture and forcing from the cold front will combine with some unstable air from afternoon temperatures of 90 to 95 Degrees to produce the development of scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening. Latest indications point towards thunderstorms quickly developing across the entire area by about 2-3 pm or so. Thunderstorms will become numerous in coverage across the area by the 4-6 pm time frame with the thunderstorms continuing through this evening before diminishing by midnight tonight. The environment across the region is expected to be favorable enough for a few thunderstorms to be strong and capable of producing wind gusts of up to 40-60 mph. Another concern with thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening will be heavy downpours that persist for a while due to the slow movement of the thunderstorms. This means that rain totals of up to 1 to 2 inches are possible in localized areas that see stronger and slower moving thunderstorms. This means that street, urban and poor drainage flooding could be a concern in some localized spots. Saturday: I have good news for Saturday’s weather as it looks a lot less wet than it did previously. While there could be some early morning scattered showers, the rest of Saturday looks cloudy with perhaps some peeks of sunshine possible at times. High temperatures will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Sunday: Sunday also is trending much drier than what it looked like previously as low pressure may remain further offshore. That said, we still will need to watch how far west the rain pushes into the area as its quite possible that areas near and east of I-190 and I-395 see rain in the afternoon, while areas west of I-190 and I-395 stay dry all day Sunday. For now, I think that Sunday will be cloudy and there could be some scattered showers in the afternoon across Central Mass, while Western Mass stays dry. High temperatures will be near 60 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
