Bands Of Rain, Which Will Be Heavy At Times, & Wind Gusts Of Up To 40 To 50 mph Are Expected This Afternoon Through Tonight & Sunday Across Western & Central Mass

Weather analysis as of midday showed a strong low pressure system that’s located to the east of the Delmarva Peninsula. This storm is most certainly producing some pretty windy conditions across the entire area with reports of downed trees and power outages already, and we’re not even into the worst part of the winds yet. The rain portion of this storm hasn’t quite reached our area as of yet. Bands of rain, some of it moderate to heavy in intensity are gradually pushing their way northward from southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and the Cape. These bands of rain are expected to gradually push their way into Western & Central Mass from south to north as we progress through this afternoon and this evening. The heaviest of the rain with this storm is expected from later this afternoon through tonight and Sunday.

Let’s break this storm down again in terms of what to expect across Western and Central Mass:

Rain: Bands of rain, some of it moderate to heavy in intensity, will rotate their way northward into Western and Central Mass during this afternoon. These bands of rain, some of it moderate to heavy in intensity, will continue to rotate through our area during tonight and during all day Sunday. Additionally, this storm is a bit more convectively active than what was previously expected. Because of this, an isolated thunderstorm or two is a possibility during late this afternoon and during tonight.

Given the fact that it appears likely now that we are going to see bands of rain, it means that it will not rain steadily the whole time this afternoon, tonight and Sunday. But when these bands of rain rotate through, it’s going to rain hard for somewhere between a couple of hours and a few hours at a time.

The rain is still expected to continue through Sunday night, all of Monday and all of Monday night. The rain looks to finally come to an end by Tuesday morning.

Bottom line is that the rain portion of this storm hasn’t even begun yet, but it will most definitely get underway during this afternoon.

Total Rainfall Amounts With This Storm still looks to range from 1 to 2 inches across Western Mass to 2 to 3 inches of total rainfall across Central Mass. I do think that there will be locally higher rainfall amounts across areas of Worcester County that are near and east of I-190 and near and east of I-395. In these areas, I expect to see much more frequent bands of moderate to heavy rain to rotate through.

Given the long-duration that the rain will be falling, I don’t think that we’re looking at any sort of flood concerns across the region. There could, however, be areas where street, highway and poor drainage flooding could be an issue when any bands of heavy rain rotate through.

Wind: The wind portion of this storm has already been causing problems across the entire region with reports of downed trees and power lines & we are not even into the worst part of the winds yet.

Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 45 mph are expected throughout this afternoon.

A period of stronger northeast winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph are expected during tonight with these strong winds persisting through all of Sunday morning. This is when the worst part of the storm, in terms of winds will be.

During Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, expect northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. These winds should decrease on Monday with north winds of 10 to 20 mph expected all day long.

These strong winds combined with trees that are still fully leafed will lead to both broken tree limbs and some downed trees. This, in turn, will lead to the likelihood of even more scattered power outages throughout this weekend. I think the time frame that may see the highest concentration of broken tree limbs, downed trees and scattered power outages will be from about 4 pm this afternoon through all of tonight and until about 11 am Sunday morning.

Many more updates on this storm will be posted as needed.

A Prolonged Wind-Swept Rain Is Still Expected All Weekend Long Across Western & Central Mass

Prolonged Wind-Swept Rain Is Still Expected All Weekend Long: Weather analysis this afternoon showed a strengthening low pressure system that’s located to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This low pressure system is expected to strengthen as it moves very slowly northward reaching a position just south of Long Island by late Saturday. The low pressure system is then expected to stall & then sit and spin just south of Long Island from Saturday night through Sunday and even Monday. This stalling of the low pressure system is going to mean that we will have a prolonged wind-swept rain across all of Western and Central Mass throughout all of this weekend. This rain is even expected to last through the day on Monday before it comes to an end Monday night and Tuesday.

So, let me break down what to expect from this storm this weekend across Western and Central Mass:

Rain: Radar imagery as of this afternoon showed a shield of rain pushing northwestward and now reaching parts of the Cape.

The shield of steady rain is expected to slowly expand northwestward and should begin to overspread Central Mass between 8 pm and midnight this evening. The rain then looks to overspread Western Mass during the after midnight hours of tonight.

The rain is then expected to continue throughout all of this weekend with the rain expected to continue through all of Monday.

One thing that I wanted to mention is that it may not actually rain steadily the entire time this weekend. The reason why I think this is because there are signals in the data that suggest the rain will break up into bands of moderate to heavy rain that rotate through at times as that low pressure system strengthens and then mills around to the south of Long Island. That being said, it definitely will rain enough this weekend to make it a washout.

Total Rainfall Amounts This Weekend Through Monday will range from 1 to 2 inches across Western Mass to 2 to 3 inches of total rainfall across Central Mass. I do think that there will be locally higher rainfall amounts across southern and southeastern parts of Worcester County where there may be more frequent bands of moderate to heavy rain rotating through during this weekend.

Given the long-duration that the rain will be falling, I don’t think that we’re looking at any sort of flood concerns across the region this weekend. There could, however, be areas where street, highway and poor drainage flooding could be an issue when any bands of heavy rain rotate through.

Wind: It is going to be a windy weekend across all of Western and Central Mass & combined with the rain will lead to a pretty miserable weekend.

Northeast winds are expected to increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph during tonight & continue through all day Saturday.

A period of stronger northeast winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph looks to occur during Saturday night & Sunday morning and this is when the peak of this storm should occur.

During Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, expect northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. These winds should decrease on Monday with north winds of 10 to 20 mph expected all day long.

These strong winds occurring for an extended period of time combined with trees that are still fully leafed will lead to broken tree limbs and the potential for isolated to even scattered power outages throughout this weekend. I think the time frame that may see the highest concentration of broken tree limbs and possibly some power outages will be from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Many more updates on this storm will be posted as needed.

A Prolonged Wind-Swept Heavy Rain Is Expected All Weekend Long Across Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon & Tonight: A big high pressure system will control the weather throughout this afternoon and tonight.

Lots of sunshine can be expected throughout this afternoon. Temperatures will be around 65 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Clear skies are expected throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be around 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: It’s quite possible that our big high pressure system will control our weather throughout Friday before we are impacted by a strong low pressure system that’ll be moving northward and then northwestward up the East Coast of the United States.

Skies look to start out partly sunny during the morning. Skies are then expected to become cloudy during the afternoon. High temperatures will be around 65 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.

Prolonged Wind-Swept Heavy Rain Is Expected All Weekend Long: It is looking more and more likely that a wind-swept rain, which will be heavy at times, will affect all of Western and Central Mass throughout all of this weekend. That being said, there are still some questions as to where the low pressure system that’ll bring our rain and wind will track in relation to our area.

Weather analysis today shows an area of low pressure forming offshore of the North Carolina coastline. This low pressure system is expected to strengthen significantly over the next day or two as it heads northward towards our area. At some point, it appears that this low pressure system will stall and then meander around throughout this weekend into early next week. The big question to the entire forecast is where exactly this low pressure system will stall and meander around.

A majority of the weather forecast guidance are forecasting that this low pressure system will stall just south of the eastern tip of Long Island throughout this weekend before it’s ejected to the northeast by later Monday and Tuesday. This would lead to a wind-swept heavy rain to occur starting late Friday night and then continuing through the entire weekend. Widespread rain totals of 2 to 3 inches, along with northeast winds that gust over 40 mph would be common this weekend across all of Western and Central Mass.

I do want to mention that there is a minor number of weather forecast guidance members that show the low pressure system stalling much further to the south near the south coast of New Jersey. In this case, these weather forecast guidance members show our area being on the northern fringe of the storm & thus we’d see very different weather this weekend. This weather would include occasional bands of rain throughout this weekend that leads to rain totals of between one-half of an inch (0.50”) and one inch. Additionally, the winds would be a bit lower & would gust up to 30-40 mph at times throughout this weekend.

Based on my analysis of all of the weather data, I think that the weather forecast guidance that are showing the low pressure system stalling much further south might be strengthening the low pressure system too much. This over strengthening of the storm system by these particular weather forecast guidance cause the low pressure system to wrap up too early & stall prematurely.

Because of this, I think that we will probably see the low pressure system stall just south of Long Island throughout this weekend & this position will be close enough to produce rain, that will be heavy at times & windy conditions all weekend long across all of Western and Central Mass.

With That, Here Is My Forecast For This Weekend For All Of Western & Central Mass:

It appears that rain will overspread the entire area sometime between very late Friday night or during Saturday morning. Rain is then expected to fall across all of Western and Central Mass throughout all of Saturday afternoon & the rain may be heavy at times. In addition, it is expected to be windy throughout all of Friday night and all of Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night will be between 45 and 50 Degrees. High temperatures Saturday will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. Winds throughout all of Friday night and all of Saturday will be Northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph.

Rain is expected to continue throughout all of Saturday night and the rain will be heavy at times. It will also continue to be windy throughout all of Saturday night. Low temperatures will be around 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph.

Turning to Sunday, it appears that rain will continue all day long & it will continue to be windy. High temperatures will be around 60 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

It appears that the rain will continue through all of Sunday night and all of Monday before it comes to an end linger sometime on Monday night or Tuesday.

Forecast Rain Totals: I’m going with rain totals this weekend that’ll range from 1 to 2 inches across Western Mass to possibly as much as 2 to 3 inches of total rainfall across Central Mass. It should be noted that far eastern and southeastern parts of Worcester County could end up receiving upwards of 3 to 4 inches of total rainfall from this storm this weekend.

Downed Trees & Power Outages?? The combination of winds that will frequently gust up to 40 to 45 mph for an extended period of time from Friday night all the way through Sunday and trees that are fully leafed & will act like sails in the wind will probably lead to isolated to scattered downed trees & isolated to scattered power outages across all of Western and Central Mass throughout this weekend.

Many more updates on this weekend’s storm will be posted as needed.