My wife, Meg, wanted me to send out a write up that addresses the extreme hype surrounding the very strong El Nino conditions without any context or explanation. So, I want to give you a non-hype and down to earth explanation of what to expect this winter here in Western & Central Mass.
What Is El Nino? El Nino is a global phenomenon that’s centered in the central and eastern Pacific when the ocean water temperatures become much warmer than average. This phenomenon oftentimes leads to a large disruption to the weather patterns across the globe.
The El Nino that we are currently having is one of, if not the strongest, on record. El Nino conditions usually peak in the late fall and winter months. I want to point out that the previous strongest El Ninos on record were during the winter of 1997-98 and the winter of 1997-98 & I do think that we will surpass both of those El Nino in terms of the amount of heat that’ll be present in the eastern and central Pacific.
Unlike what you may have seen on social media, this El Nino is not going to lead to the destruction of the United States or be the catalyst for the end of the world. It is going to be a very strong El Nino, that will have some large impacts on the weather this winter across not only here in Western & Central Mass, but also across the United States.
What About The Weather Here in Western & Central Mass: The big weather driver this winter is going to be the southern part of the jet stream, which is likely to curve northeastward up along the East Coast of the United States. It is likely that this southern part of the jet stream is likely to be very energized this winter & because of this, we will likely see some pretty strong storm systems move from California through the southern United States & Florida & then up the East Coast.
This all means that we will probably see a winter where precipitations are above average to possibly well-above average across Western & Central Mass. I want to strongly emphasize that this does not necessarily mean that it’s going to be a snowy winter across our area. In fact, I think that we are looking at a winter where there is below average snowfall, but that does not mean it’s not going to snow at all. More on that later….
Temperatures: I do think that we are likely looking at a winter where temperatures are above average. Looking month-by-month, November looks to be near average for temperatures; December could be about 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit above average; January looks to be about 3 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above average; February and March both look to be about 2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit above average.
Snow: As I already mentioned, I think that this winter will be quite stormy, thanks to that southern part of the jet stream driving some storm systems up our way. Now, the big bug-a-boo to this forecast is how much of this storminess will be in the form of snow. Seasonal snow forecasts are always extremely uncertain & these types of forecasts should always be taken with a pound of salt. The reason why is because typically it only takes one or two storms in a winter to make or break a winter in terms of snow here in Western & Central Mass.
Given that we are probably going to see a winter where the temperatures will be above average, it’s going to take a “perfect” storm setup to create some decent snowstorms. Does this mean that we won’t see a snowstorm or even a couple of snowstorms? No, because I do think that we will see a couple of chances where a well-timed push of cold air will collide with all of that moisture & energy and produce a big snowstorm or maybe even a couple of big snowstorms.
Big snowstorms have occurred during other strong El Nino winters here in Western & Central Mass. During the El Nino winter of 1982-83, a blizzard in February produced 12 to 18 inches of snow across the region; The El Nino winter of 1997-98 produced a 1 to 2 foot snowstorm just before Christmas that winter; The El Nino winter of 2015-2016 was pretty snowless until February when a foot of snow accumulated across the region early that month.
All-in-all, I do think that we are likely looking a winter where the snow amounts are about 15 to 20 inches below average. I also am leaning towards the idea that the snowiest month this winter may end up being February with perhaps one or even two big snowstorms occurring that month.
Ice Storm Potential: What I am pretty concerned about this winter is for the possibility of one or two significant ice storms across Western & Central Mass. Many past El Nino winters have produced some very notable and destructive ice storms across this region & this is something that’ll need to be watched during the months of January and February.
All-in-all, while this very strong El Nino WILL NOT bring upon a disaster of biblical proportions (wait for the Ghostbusters quote), “Fire & brimstone from the skies, rivers and seas boiling, forty years of darkness, earthquakes and volcanoes, the dead rising from the grave, human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together—MASS HYSTERIA!”, it will help to produce a winter that’s anything but quiet across Western & Central Mass.
FINALLY - I hope you got a lot out of my overview of what this winter may be like with the El Nino conditions. As you can see, A LOT of work went into researching & compiling the data & then writing out my thoughts. I'd greatly appreciate any donations you may be able to send over my way. They help to offset cost of the data that I pay for to analyze the weather and also for the amount of time I put into analyzing and forecasting the weather.
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