Accumulating Snow Still Expected Tonight Into Friday Across All Of Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: Rain is expected throughout the rest of this afternoon and it is likely that the rain will be heavy at times. Temperatures this afternoon will gradually fall through the 40s. Accumulating Snow Is Still Expected Tonight Into Friday Across All Of Western & Central Mass: We will be in a prime setup for a late season snowstorm across Western and Central Mass, especially in the higher terrain, tonight into Friday. With that said, this continues to be an extremely difficult forecast as the smallest differences in temperature, precipitation intensity and low pressure track will mean the difference between mostly all rain and a very significant snowstorm across much of, if not all of Western and Central Mass. An upper level low pressure system now located over the eastern Great Lakes will track across southern New England during the day on Friday. The dynamics, energy and moisture with this upper level low pressure are quite strong and this will lead to the atmosphere to become colder tonight into Friday leading to a changeover from rain to snow. At the same time this is occurring an area of low pressure now taking shape off of the Mid-Atlantic coast will head for Nantucket on Friday. This will cause some extra energy and moisture to be pulled into this system. Here Are My Latest Thoughts: A changeover from rain to snow looks to occur first across the Berkshires and across areas along and north of Route 2 between about 8 pm and midnight this evening. By the period from midnight to 3 am or so tonight, a changeover from rain to snow is likely to occur in the Hilltowns of Western Mass, the upper Pioneer Valley of Western Mass and potentially across much of, if not ALL of Central Mass, including metro Worcester. Rain or a rain-snow mix is likely to be occurring across the lower Pioneer Valley, including the Springfield metro. Turning to the period from about 4 am through sunrise Friday morning, a changeover from rain to snow will reach the lower Pioneer Valley, so that it will probably be snowing everywhere across Western and Central Mass by 7 to 8 am Friday morning. During the day on Friday, snow is expected to continue across Western and Central Mass. The exception might be across the Pioneer Valley of Western Mass, where the snow will probably mix with rain at times. The snow or the snow-rain mix will be heavy at times late tonight into Friday and this will lead to significant snow accumulations in areas that stay all snow. All of the snow or rain-snow mix with this storm will come to an end between 9 pm and midnight Friday evening. This is going to be a wet and heavy snowfall and therefore some power outages are possible in areas that see 4 to 5 inches or more of snow accumulation. In addition, roads will be snow covered and quite slippery tonight into Friday in the higher terrain. In Summary, significant wet and heavy snow accumulations are expected across parts of Western and Central Mass (My latest forecast total snowfall map can be found below). Snow amounts are going to be highly dependent on how heavy the precipitation falls. Once again, I want to emphasize that this continues to be an extremely difficult forecast and the smallest changes in either the storm track, surface temperatures or moisture feed could mean the difference between mostly all rain for many and a widespread significant snowfall across much of the area. One other thing to note is that there are some similarities of this storm to the March 31 to April 1, 1997 snowstorm and the October 29-30, 2011 snowstorm. Both storms and especially the 2011 storm brought much more snow than what was originally forecast. So, keep this in mind for tonight into Friday. One final thing – I would greatly, greatly appreciate any reports tonight & Friday. This includes precipitation type and how much snow has accumulated at your location. This will make it easier for me to determine what is actually happening & will also help to facilitate the updating of the forecast, if necessary. My Forecast Snow Total Map For Tonight Into Friday Can Be Found Below:

I continue to monitor this storm closely and will continue to keep you updated.

Accumulating Snow Is Expected For Thursday Night Into Friday Across All Of Western & Central Mass

First of all - I'M SORRY in advance for this forecast of accumulating snow!! This is the type of April forecast that I don't like to or don't want to write!! This Afternoon: Quiet weather is expected for this afternoon with sunny skies expected to become partly sunny skies by mid-afternoon. In addition, a late day isolated shower is possible in some areas. Temperatures this afternoon will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Tonight: Skies are expected to become cloudy this evening with some scattered shower activity expected well after midnight tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Thursday: An area of low pressure is expected to take shape off of the Mid-Atlantic coast during the day on Thursday. This is going to be a slow progressing system and this means that much of the morning may be dry across Central Mass while it rains across much of Western Mass. Rain is then expected to overspread Central Mass by early to mid-afternoon Thursday. The warmest temperatures of the day Thursday are expected to occur in the morning with temperatures in the mid 40s expected. Temperatures are then expected to gradually fall into the low 40s during the afternoon. Accumulating Snow Is Expected For Thursday Night Into Friday Across All Of Western Mass & Much Of Central Mass: That low pressure system is expected to strengthen on Thursday night into Friday as it heads from offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast to Nantucket. This is going to be a very energetic and very dynamic system that packs a lot of moisture. In addition, the track of the low pressure system is such that it will be able to pull down some cold air leading to the likelihood of accumulating snow across the entire area. With that said, this is still a very, very difficult forecast as the smallest changes in either the storm track, surface temperatures or moisture feed could mean the difference between mostly all rain for many and a widespread significant snowfall across much of the area. Here Are My Latest Thoughts - A changeover from rain to snow looks to occur first across the Berkshires and across areas along and north of Route 2 during Thursday evening. By midnight, it is expected to be snowing across much of Western Mass, except the lower Pioneer Valley where it’ll probably still be raining or a rain-snow mix. Across Central Mass, it is likely to be snowing by midnight Thursday night across the Worcester Hills, but raining or a rain-snow mix elsewhere across Central Mass. Turning to the time period from after midnight Thursday night into Friday morning, snow is expected to be occurring across much of, if not all of Western Mass, including the entire Pioneer Valley. Across Central Mass, the proximity of the low pressure system to the area leads me to think that it may be a rain or rain-snow mix along and south of the Mass Pike and snow north of the Mass Pike. Depending on how quickly this low pressure system strengthens and how much dynamics are involved, there could be a period of moderate to heavy snow across mostly Western Mass as well as across the northern Worcester Hills from just before midnight Thursday night to about sunrise Friday morning. The precipitation is expected to lighten up significantly in intensity during Friday afternoon and I expect that it will probably be a rain-snow mix. I want to emphasize once more that this is a very, very tough forecast in terms of precipitation type and how much snow actually accumulates. One factor that could lead to a few to several inches of wet, heavy snow to accumulate is the fact that it will be night when much of the snow accumulates and there will be no solar insulation involved that would otherwise melt the snow on contact. Also, any periods of moderate to heavy snow would also “override” any melting involved due to the warm ground leading to the snow to accumulate rather quickly. My Forecast Snow Total Map For Thursday Night Into Friday Can Be Found Below:

I continue to monitor this storm closely and will continue to keep you updated.

Snow Is Becoming More Likely For Thursday Night Into Friday Across Western & Central Mass

Partly sunny skies are expected for This Afternoonwith partly sunny skies also expected all day Wednesday across Western and Central Mass. Temperatures this afternoon will be near 65 Degrees and high temperatures Wednesday will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. On Thursday, an area of low pressure is expected to take shape near the Maryland coastline. Rain is expected to begin by mid to late morning across Western Mass and by late morning to early afternoon across Central Mass. Rain will then continue across the entire area throughout Thursday afternoon. Temperatures on Thursday will be much cooler with readings between 40 and 45 Degrees expected. Snow Is Likely For Thursday Night Into Friday Across Western & Central Mass: That low pressure system is expected to strengthen to the south of Long Island on Thursday night and then move slowly to the east on Friday. As this low pressure system strengthens, it will cause colder air to be pulled southward into Western and Central Mass. This is a setup that will need to be watched with extreme scrutiny as it’s quite possible that accumulating snow could occur across all of Western and Central Mass, both in the hills and in the valleys. A changeover from rain to snow looks to occur first across the Berkshires, the Worcester Hills and the Hilltowns of Western Mass during Thursday evening with the rain then changing to snow across the rest of Western and Central Mass, including the Pioneer Valley and the Blackstone Valley after midnight Thursday night. Depending on how quickly this low pressure system strengthens and how much dynamics are involved, there could be a period of moderate to heavy snow across the entire area from about 2 to 3 am to about 8 am Friday morning. Snow then continues for a while on Friday morning before it lightens up intensity and mixes with rain during Friday afternoon. The snow-rain mix with then come to an end during Friday evening. As I mentioned yesterday, this is going to be a very tough forecast in terms of precipitation type and how much snow actually accumulates. One factor that could lead to a few to several inches of wet, heavy snow to accumulate is the fact that it will be night when much of the snow accumulates and there will be no solar insulation involved that would otherwise melt the snow on contact. Also, any periods of moderate to heavy snow would also “override” any melting involved due to the warm ground leading to the snow to accumulate rather quickly. Here Are My Thoughts On Total Snow Accumulations For Thursday Night Into Friday: The highest snow amounts are probably going to occur in the Berkshires, the northern Worcester Hills and the western hilltowns of Western Mass with 3 to 6 inches of wet, heavy snow possible with higher amounts possible. Elsewhere across Western and Central Mass, the rest of the Worcester Hills and the eastern Hilltowns of Western Mass may end up with 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulations. As for the Pioneer Valley and the Blackstone Valley, 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation is currently possible. With that said, we will have to watch for the possibility of higher amounts across all areas of Western and Central Mass, especially where this will be a wet and heavy snow that could lead to tree damage and power outages in areas that see 4 inches or more of snow accumulation. I am monitoring this storm extremely closely and will continue to keep you updated.