A Prolonged Wind-Swept Rain Is Still Expected All Weekend Long Across Western & Central Mass

Prolonged Wind-Swept Rain Is Still Expected All Weekend Long: Weather analysis this afternoon showed a strengthening low pressure system that’s located to the east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This low pressure system is expected to strengthen as it moves very slowly northward reaching a position just south of Long Island by late Saturday. The low pressure system is then expected to stall & then sit and spin just south of Long Island from Saturday night through Sunday and even Monday. This stalling of the low pressure system is going to mean that we will have a prolonged wind-swept rain across all of Western and Central Mass throughout all of this weekend. This rain is even expected to last through the day on Monday before it comes to an end Monday night and Tuesday.

So, let me break down what to expect from this storm this weekend across Western and Central Mass:

Rain: Radar imagery as of this afternoon showed a shield of rain pushing northwestward and now reaching parts of the Cape.

The shield of steady rain is expected to slowly expand northwestward and should begin to overspread Central Mass between 8 pm and midnight this evening. The rain then looks to overspread Western Mass during the after midnight hours of tonight.

The rain is then expected to continue throughout all of this weekend with the rain expected to continue through all of Monday.

One thing that I wanted to mention is that it may not actually rain steadily the entire time this weekend. The reason why I think this is because there are signals in the data that suggest the rain will break up into bands of moderate to heavy rain that rotate through at times as that low pressure system strengthens and then mills around to the south of Long Island. That being said, it definitely will rain enough this weekend to make it a washout.

Total Rainfall Amounts This Weekend Through Monday will range from 1 to 2 inches across Western Mass to 2 to 3 inches of total rainfall across Central Mass. I do think that there will be locally higher rainfall amounts across southern and southeastern parts of Worcester County where there may be more frequent bands of moderate to heavy rain rotating through during this weekend.

Given the long-duration that the rain will be falling, I don’t think that we’re looking at any sort of flood concerns across the region this weekend. There could, however, be areas where street, highway and poor drainage flooding could be an issue when any bands of heavy rain rotate through.

Wind: It is going to be a windy weekend across all of Western and Central Mass & combined with the rain will lead to a pretty miserable weekend.

Northeast winds are expected to increase to 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph during tonight & continue through all day Saturday.

A period of stronger northeast winds of 20 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph looks to occur during Saturday night & Sunday morning and this is when the peak of this storm should occur.

During Sunday afternoon and Sunday night, expect northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph. These winds should decrease on Monday with north winds of 10 to 20 mph expected all day long.

These strong winds occurring for an extended period of time combined with trees that are still fully leafed will lead to broken tree limbs and the potential for isolated to even scattered power outages throughout this weekend. I think the time frame that may see the highest concentration of broken tree limbs and possibly some power outages will be from late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night and Sunday morning.

Many more updates on this storm will be posted as needed.

A Prolonged Wind-Swept Heavy Rain Is Expected All Weekend Long Across Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon & Tonight: A big high pressure system will control the weather throughout this afternoon and tonight.

Lots of sunshine can be expected throughout this afternoon. Temperatures will be around 65 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Clear skies are expected throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be around 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Friday: It’s quite possible that our big high pressure system will control our weather throughout Friday before we are impacted by a strong low pressure system that’ll be moving northward and then northwestward up the East Coast of the United States.

Skies look to start out partly sunny during the morning. Skies are then expected to become cloudy during the afternoon. High temperatures will be around 65 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph.

Prolonged Wind-Swept Heavy Rain Is Expected All Weekend Long: It is looking more and more likely that a wind-swept rain, which will be heavy at times, will affect all of Western and Central Mass throughout all of this weekend. That being said, there are still some questions as to where the low pressure system that’ll bring our rain and wind will track in relation to our area.

Weather analysis today shows an area of low pressure forming offshore of the North Carolina coastline. This low pressure system is expected to strengthen significantly over the next day or two as it heads northward towards our area. At some point, it appears that this low pressure system will stall and then meander around throughout this weekend into early next week. The big question to the entire forecast is where exactly this low pressure system will stall and meander around.

A majority of the weather forecast guidance are forecasting that this low pressure system will stall just south of the eastern tip of Long Island throughout this weekend before it’s ejected to the northeast by later Monday and Tuesday. This would lead to a wind-swept heavy rain to occur starting late Friday night and then continuing through the entire weekend. Widespread rain totals of 2 to 3 inches, along with northeast winds that gust over 40 mph would be common this weekend across all of Western and Central Mass.

I do want to mention that there is a minor number of weather forecast guidance members that show the low pressure system stalling much further to the south near the south coast of New Jersey. In this case, these weather forecast guidance members show our area being on the northern fringe of the storm & thus we’d see very different weather this weekend. This weather would include occasional bands of rain throughout this weekend that leads to rain totals of between one-half of an inch (0.50”) and one inch. Additionally, the winds would be a bit lower & would gust up to 30-40 mph at times throughout this weekend.

Based on my analysis of all of the weather data, I think that the weather forecast guidance that are showing the low pressure system stalling much further south might be strengthening the low pressure system too much. This over strengthening of the storm system by these particular weather forecast guidance cause the low pressure system to wrap up too early & stall prematurely.

Because of this, I think that we will probably see the low pressure system stall just south of Long Island throughout this weekend & this position will be close enough to produce rain, that will be heavy at times & windy conditions all weekend long across all of Western and Central Mass.

With That, Here Is My Forecast For This Weekend For All Of Western & Central Mass:

It appears that rain will overspread the entire area sometime between very late Friday night or during Saturday morning. Rain is then expected to fall across all of Western and Central Mass throughout all of Saturday afternoon & the rain may be heavy at times. In addition, it is expected to be windy throughout all of Friday night and all of Saturday. Low temperatures Friday night will be between 45 and 50 Degrees. High temperatures Saturday will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. Winds throughout all of Friday night and all of Saturday will be Northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph.

Rain is expected to continue throughout all of Saturday night and the rain will be heavy at times. It will also continue to be windy throughout all of Saturday night. Low temperatures will be around 45 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph.

Turning to Sunday, it appears that rain will continue all day long & it will continue to be windy. High temperatures will be around 60 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.

It appears that the rain will continue through all of Sunday night and all of Monday before it comes to an end linger sometime on Monday night or Tuesday.

Forecast Rain Totals: I’m going with rain totals this weekend that’ll range from 1 to 2 inches across Western Mass to possibly as much as 2 to 3 inches of total rainfall across Central Mass. It should be noted that far eastern and southeastern parts of Worcester County could end up receiving upwards of 3 to 4 inches of total rainfall from this storm this weekend.

Downed Trees & Power Outages?? The combination of winds that will frequently gust up to 40 to 45 mph for an extended period of time from Friday night all the way through Sunday and trees that are fully leafed & will act like sails in the wind will probably lead to isolated to scattered downed trees & isolated to scattered power outages across all of Western and Central Mass throughout this weekend.

Many more updates on this weekend’s storm will be posted as needed.

This Weekend Still Looks To Be A Washout Due To Rainy & Windy Weather Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight & Thursday: A big high pressure system is expected to control the weather throughout tonight and Thursday.

Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected throughout tonight. Low temperatures will be between 42 and 46 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday looks to be a partly sunny day with high temperatures around 65 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

A Rainy & Windy Weekend Is Expected: A strong low pressure system is expected to head northward over the next couple of days. This low pressure system is expected to stall somewhere between the south coast of New England and just offshore of the Cape throughout this weekend. The stalling of this strong low pressure system is expected to mean a prolonged period of rainy and windy weather across the entire area throughout this weekend. How heavy the rain will be and how windy it will get is going to depend on how close this low pressure system gets to our area. This is something that is still somewhat uncertain & because of this, the exact forecast for this weekend remains somewhat uncertain.

The various weather forecast guidance seem to be clustered in two potential scenario outcomes:

The first scenario is for the strong low pressure system to stall near the south coast of New England and then loop around near Long Island during this weekend before heading eastward away from our area by early next week. This first scenario would lead to rain, which would be heavy at times, starting by Friday night and then continuing through all of this weekend before it gradually comes to an end sometime on Monday. In addition, northeast winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of up to 40-50 mph would be common throughout all of this weekend. In this first scenario, widespread rain totals of 2 to 4 inches would be common across all of Western and Central Mass this weekend.

A second scenario would include the strong low pressure system staying a bit further east and tracking slowly to the east of the Cape during this weekend. This second scenario would lead to some periods of light to moderate rain to occur beginning by Saturday morning and then continuing through the entire weekend. It should be noted that in this second scenario, it would not rain all of the time & the rain would remain mostly light in intensity. Rain totals in this second scenario would range from one quarter of an inch (0.25”) to one half of an inch (0.50”) across Western Mass to one half of an inch (0.50”) to one inch across Central Mass. Additionally, northeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts of up to 35 mph would be common throughout this weekend across all of Western and Central Mass.

So, as you can see, two very different scenarios lead to two very different weekends in terms of weather across the entire area. Obviously, this makes for a very difficult and somewhat uncertain forecast.

Based on everything that I’ve looked at in terms of weather data, the final outcome of this weekend’s weather will probably be somewhere in the middle of the two scenarios I went over with you.

With That, Here Is My Forecast For This Weekend For All Of Western & Central Mass:

Friday may end up being dry, but cloudy and windy all day long. High temperatures will be around 65 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph at times.

Rain is expected to overspread the entire area some during the late night hours of Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night will be between 45 and 50 Degrees. Northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph are expected.

Rain is expected all day Saturday across all of Western and Central Mass and the rain may be heavy at times. It will also continue to be windy with northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph. High temperatures will be around 60 Degrees.

It appears that rain will continue throughout all of Saturday night and Sunday across all of Western & Central Mass and the rain could be heavy at times. Additionally, it will continue to be windy throughout Saturday night and Sunday with northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of up to 40 mph. Low temperatures Saturday night will be around 45 Degrees. High temperatures will be around 60 Degrees.

At this point, it appears that the rain will gradually come to an end during the day on Monday with sunshine returning by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Forecast Rain Totals: At this point, I think that rain totals may range from around one inch across Western Mass to somewhere between 1 and 2 inches of total rainfall with locally higher amounts across Central Mass.

Downed Trees & Power Outages?? The combination of winds that will frequently gust up to 40 mph for an extended period of time from Friday all the way through Sunday and trees that are fully leafed & will act like sails in the wind will probably lead to isolated to scattered downed trees & isolated to scattered power outages across all of Western and Central Mass throughout this weekend.

Bottom line is that I urge everyone to keep up-to-date with the latest forecasts as the forecasts will likely still change over the next day or two. Many more updates will be posted as needed.