Snow, Sleet & Freezing Rain Expected This Afternoon Into Tonight Across Western & Central Mass; A Nor'Easter Really Needs To Be Watched For Snow Impacts Sunday Night Through Monday

Radar imagery and weather reports indicate that snow has begun across all of Western Mass as of the time of this posting. This is a decent burst of snow with reports of moderate snow falling.

It has actually just begun snowing here in Sturbridge at the time of this post & it will likely begin snowing across the rest of Central Mass over the next hour or two. Once it begins to snow, it'll probably fall at a moderate intensity at times. Be aware that roads will likely become slick rather quickly shortly after the snow begins, especially where the snow will come down at a moderate intensity. Because of this, use caution if you are out and about.

The snow still looks to mix with sleet and freezing rain beginning about mid-afternoon across areas near and south of the Mass Pike. For areas north of the Mass Pike, the snow will begin to mix with freezing rain and sleet by late afternoon. Areas near and north of Route 2 probably will stay as all snow throughout this entire storm.

A change back to all snow is expected across the entire area during this evening. The snow is then expected to come to an end across the entire area by just before sunrise Saturday morning.

Snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected for areas near and south of the Mass Pike. 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation look likely across areas north of the Mass Pike. It should be noted that areas near and north of Route 2 may end up with 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation.

FINALLY, I continue to keep very close tabs on the potential Nor'Easter that looks increasingly more likely for Sunday night through Monday. Weather forecast guidance are trending away from a complete miss & more towards either a storm that brings a light to moderate snowfall or a storm that is a major snowstorm with a lot of wind across the entire area. These trends are going to have to be watched very closely as the low pressure system with the snow on Sunday night & Monday will be very intense. Because of this, this could be a major snowstorm with a lot of blowing and drifting snow if it tracks close to our area. There seems to be three possible scenarios with this storm:

SCENARIO NUMBER 1 WHICH HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRING: The low pressure system tracks just south and east of Nantucket. This would lead to a light to moderate sized snowfall on the order of 2 to 4 inches or 3 to 6 inches from Sunday night through all day Monday.

SCENARIO NUMBER 2 WHICH NOW HAS A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRING: This would be the big snowstorm scenario where low pressure tracks very near, if not right over the Cape and Nantucket. In this scenario, it’d be a classic major snowstorm that dumps 1 to 2 feet of snow & is accompanied by a lot of wind with considerable blowing and drifting snow across all of Western and Central Mass.

SCENARIO NUMBER 3 WHICH NOW HAS A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRING IS for the low pressure system to track completely out to sea leading to no snow at all across the entire area.

This is definitely a storm that's going to need to be watched very closely in the coming days. So, keep checking back for the latest.

A Messy Winter Storm Is Expected During Friday Afternoon & Friday Night Across Western & Central Mass

A Messy Winter Storm Is Expected During Friday Afternoon & Friday Night: A warm front is expected to push northeastward into our area during the day on Friday. At the same time this is happening, an area of low pressure may form off of the New Jersey coast Friday afternoon & then track near the south coast of New England during Friday night. These two weather systems are expected to bring a messy winter storm that includes snow, sleet and freezing rain during Friday afternoon and Friday night leading to hazardous travel conditions.

Snow is expected to initially overspread the entire area between 11 am and 1 pm Friday. The snow looks to then mix with freezing rain and sleet across areas near and south of the Mass Pike by mid-afternoon while it continues to snow across areas north of the Mass Pike. The mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain looks to push as far north as about Route 2 by very late afternoon and early evening Friday. Areas north of Route 2 looks to remain as all snow right into Friday evening.

As we get into Friday night, it appears that the icy mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will change back to snow from north to south during the evening hours. Snow then looks to continue across all of Western and Central Mass during the after midnight hours.

All precipitation with this storm looks to come to an end by late Friday night.

My forecast snow total map can be found attached to this post.

The messy mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain across much of the area will lead to hazardous travel conditions during Friday afternoon and Friday night. Those of you out and about during Friday afternoon and Friday night should plan on slow going & using extreme care.

Temperatures during Friday will be in the lower 30s. Low temperatures Friday night will be near 25 Degrees.

Winds on Friday will be East to Southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Winds on Friday night will be North to Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday: Cloudy skies with scattered snow showers can be expected throughout the day on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the low 30s. Winds will be

Latest On The Possible Storm From Sunday Afternoon Through Monday: I continue to keep close tabs on the possibility that a nor’easter may affect our area in some way from Sunday afternoon through Monday. That being said, there remains a decent amount of uncertainty as to where this storm might track in relation to our area. It seems though that there are still three potential scenarios with this storm:

Scenario Number 1 which has a 50 percent chance of occurring: The low pressure system tracks to the south and east of Nantucket. This would lead to this being a glancing blow with something like a couple to perhaps a few inches of wind-blown snow from Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Scenario Number 2 which has a 30 percent chance of occurring: This would be the big snowstorm scenario where low pressure tracks very near, if not right over the Cape and Nantucket. In this scenario, it’d be a classic major snowstorm that dumps 1 to 2 feet of snow & is accompanied by a lot of wind across all of Western and Central Mass.

Scenario Number 3 which has a 20 percent chance of occurring is for the low pressure system to track completely out to sea leading to no snow at all across the entire area.

While it seems that the glancing blow scenario seems to be the scenario that has the slightly higher probability of occurring, it is still way too soon to completely rule out any of the scenarios. So, keep checking back for the latest updates with Sunday & Monday storm.

Rain Gradually Changes To Snow Starting Late This Afternoon & Early This Evening With Some Snow Continuing Into This Evening Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon & Tonight: Rain is expected to continue across the entire area for a few hours this afternoon. A change from rain to snow still looks to occur as we get into late this afternoon and early this evening as colder air seeps into the area.

The change from rain to snow may occur across the Worcester Hills and the Berkshires as early as 4-5 pm this afternoon. This changeover from rain to wet snow will then occur across the rest of Central Mass by early this evening. As for Western Mass, the precipitation may remain as rain across the Pioneer Valley while the hilltowns change from rain to wet snow during early this evening.

Some snow looks to persist during this evening across all of Central Mass & across parts of Western Mass (except the Pioneer Valley where precip may stay as rain).

The steady precipitation looks to come to an end by just after midnight tonight.

All-in-all, snow amounts don’t look like they will be a big deal with a slushy dusting to up to a slushy inch of snow expected across the Worcester Hills into the Worcester Metro, as well as along I-395 and I-84. Eastern and southeastern parts of Worcester County may see little or no snow accumulation. As for Western Mass, no snow accumulation is expected across the Pioneer Valley with a slushy dusting to up to an inch of snow is expected across the hilltowns.

Finally, temperatures are expected to fall to below freezing this evening and remain below freezing right through sunrise Thursday morning. This means that any wet or slushy roads that aren’t treated will become icy by this evening & remain icy right through sunrise Thursday morning.

Temperatures this afternoon will be in the upper 30s to near 40 Degrees. Low temperatures tonight will be near 25 Degrees.

Winds during the rest of this afternoon will be North at 5 to 10 mph. Winds during tonight will be North at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: A quiet weather day is expected on Thursday with partly sunny skies expected. High temperatures will be around 40 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and South at 5 to 10 mph.

As For The Storm On Friday Afternoon & Friday Night: A warm front is expected to push northeastward into our area. At the same time this is happening, it appears that a low pressure system will track along the south coast of New England. This low pressure system may help to lock in colder air across the region leading to the precipitation being either all snow or a messy mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Additionally, there seems to be more energy and moisture available with the storm on Friday. Because of this, there could be at least a few inches of snow & the possibility of a glaze of ice.

Snow and ice looks to overspread the entire area by early Friday afternoon. At this point, it seems that the precipitation type looks to be mostly all snow for areas north of the Mass Pike & especially in the northern Worcester Hills. For areas near and south of the Mass Pike, a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain looks to occur.

I do think that there could be several hours of moderate to heavy precipitation during Friday afternoon. This would take the form of moderate to heavy snow across areas north of the Mass Pike and a moderate to heavy mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain for areas near and south of the Mass Pike.

As we get into Friday evening, the precipitation intensity looks to lighten up. When it does this, we could see the precipitation type change to a mix of light sleet, light freezing rain and freezing drizzle across the entire area.

All precipitation with this storm looks to come to an end by late Friday night.

One thing that will need to be watched is the evolution of the low pressure system that is expected to track near the south coast of New England. It’s possible that this low pressure system could pull in enough cold air to keep the precipitation as all snow across all of Western and Central Mass. Alternatively, if that low pressure system doesn’t form at all, then we’d probably be looking at widespread snow, sleet, freezing rain and even rain across the entire area. This is something that will be ironed out over the next day or so.

As for possible snow amounts – Areas north of the Mass Pike may end up with 3 to 5 inches or so of snow accumulation. For areas near and south of the Mass Pike, snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches look possible.

As for possible ice amounts – A light glaze of ice looks possible across areas near and south of the Mass Pike.

I do think that road conditions during Friday afternoon and Friday night will be slick leading to hazardous travel conditions. Those of you out and about during Friday afternoon and Friday night should plan on slow going & using extreme care.

High temperatures Friday will be in the lower 30s. Low temperatures Friday night will be near 25 Degrees.

Winds on Friday will be East at 6 to 12 mph. Winds on Friday night will be North to Northeast at 7 to 14 mph.

And About The Possible Storm From Sunday Afternoon Through Monday: I don’t have much to add regarding the possible storm from Sunday afternoon through Monday as I’m already busy enough covering this afternoon & this evening’s storm as well as Friday afternoon & Friday night’s storm.

What I will say is that the storm for late this weekend and early next week needs to be watched very closely. There are a number of possible scenarios with this storm & each have very different outcomes in terms of our weather.

One scenario is for a low pressure system to track to the south and east of Nantucket. This would lead to a glancing blow with perhaps a couple to a few inches of wind-blown snow from Sunday afternoon through Monday.

Another scenario is for the low pressure system to track completely out to sea leading to no impacts at all for our area.

And yet another scenario is for a much closer track of the low pressure system. In this scenario, the low pressure system would track very near, if not right over the Cape and Nantucket. If this happens, then it would be a classic major snowstorm that is accompanied by a lot of wind across all of Western and Central Mass.

Given that we are still 4-plus days away from this storm happening, it’s way too soon to lock into any one scenario.

My advice to you is to not to get bent out of shape & cancel plans after seeing some of the social media posts warning you of a big blizzard for Sunday afternoon through Monday. In reality, no one can say with any certainty how big or how small of a storm we’ll see. Could it be a big snowstorm? Absolutely!! Could it also be a nothing burger? Also, absolutely.