The 2025-2026 Winter Outlook For Western & Central Mass

After over two weeks of a lot of time and work, here is your 2025-2026 Winter Outlook for Western & Central Mass. Before I get into the nuts and bolts of the forecast, I'm hoping you might be able to alleviate the costs that were required to research and write-up this forecast. This includes the costs for the data I used for researching and also for the amount of time I put into coming up with the winter outlook.

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HERE IS THE WINTER OUTLOOK: We’re at that time of year when everyone is getting ready for all of the things that winter brings. Because of that, here are my thoughts on what this winter might bring in terms of weather. This winter forecast, I hope, will help you in preparing your holiday travel, snow removal budgets & knowing how much heating oil, propane or firewood you might need to use.

I do think that this winter may start out snowier & colder than average as we are in weak La Nina conditions. It is expected that these La Nina conditions will “warm” to neutral ENSO conditions by later this winter leading to things turning warmer and less snowy than average by later this winter. Additionally, the ocean water temperatures over the North Pacific are warmer than average & it appears that the “polar vortex” will be disrupted often, leading to the potential for numerous waves of Arctic air to be pushed in the eastern United States, especially during December and early January.

All-in-all, I think that we’re probably looking at slightly above average temperatures and slightly below average snowfall for this winter. Additionally, I think that we’re going to have a fast start to this winter. This means that I think that we’re going to see colder than average temperatures and a snowier than average weather pattern from about Thanksgiving through all of December right into the first part of January.

This looks to be then followed by warmer than average temperatures and below average snowfall from late January into a good part of February.

There’s then the possibility that we could see a return to winter weather during March and April. This, however, is not a sure thing & it’s quite possible that this part of the winter outlook could end up not verifying.

The Rest Of November Through The Month Of December: All of the signals are pointing towards colder than average temperatures and above average snowfall starting around Thanksgiving and continuing through the month of December.

I do think that overall temperatures the rest of this month will average slightly below average with most of the cold temperatures occurring this week & then again during the final week of November. The month of December looks colder than average for temperatures & possibly even much colder than average in terms of temperatures.

As for snowfall, I think that we’re looking at possible snowfall amounts from the second half of this month through the month of December to be as follows:

Western Mass:

Pioneer Valley Of Western Mass: Around 18 Inches.

Hilltowns Of Western Mass: Around 25 to 30 Inches.

Berkshires: Around 30 Inches.

Central Mass:

Northern Worcester County & Northern Worcester Hills: Around 25 Inches.

Worcester Hills West Of I-190: Around 24 Inches.

Worcester Metro: 20 Inches Lower Elevations To 24 Inches up around Airport Hill.

Easternmost Worcester County (I-495): Around 17 Inches.

Southern Worcester County (Areas Near & South Of The Mass Pike): 18 to 22 Inches.

January: January looks to start out cold and snowy with below average temperatures and above average snowfall.

This looks to potentially change, however, by the second half of January as we could see southeastern US ridging flexing a bit leading to a storm track that takes low pressure systems either right over us or over northern New England. Should this occur, it would lead to not only above average temperatures and below average snowfall, but also any storms that do occur could end up being messy mixed precipitation storms or full-on ice storms.

All-in-all, I do think that January will end up being near average in terms of temperatures & near average in terms of snowfall.

This is what I’m thinking in terms of snow amounts for the month of January:

Western Mass:

Pioneer Valley Of Western Mass: Around 10 to 15 Inches.

Hilltowns Of Western Mass: Around 15 to 20 Inches.

Berkshires: Around 20 Inches.

Central Mass:

Northern Worcester County & Northern Worcester Hills: Around 15 to 18 Inches.

Worcester Hills West Of I-190: Around 18 Inches.

Worcester Metro: 15 Inches Lower Elevations To 18 Inches up around Airport Hill.

Easternmost Worcester County (I-495): Around 12 Inches.

Southern Worcester County (Areas Near & South Of The Mass Pike): Around 12 to 15 Inches.

February: February looks warmer than average with the potential for below average snowfall as the storm track looks to stay right over central and northern New England. This could, in turn, lead to any storms bringing us either a mix of snow, ice and rain or full-blown ice storms.

This is what I’m currently thinking in terms of snow amounts for the month of February:

Western Mass:

Pioneer Valley Of Western Mass: Around 5 Inches.

Hilltowns Of Western Mass: Around 10 Inches.

Berkshires: Around 10 to 15 Inches.

Central Mass:

Northern Worcester County & Northern Worcester Hills: Around 12 to 15 Inches.

Worcester Hills West Of I-190: Around 12 Inches.

Worcester Metro: 10 Inches Lower Elevations To 12 Inches up around Airport Hill.

Easternmost Worcester County (I-495): Around 5 Inches.

Southern Worcester County (Areas Near & South Of The Mass Pike): Around 5 to 10 Inches.

March & April: There’s the possibility of one last gasp of winter during March into the early part of April. That said, this part of the forecast has a huge amount of uncertainty to it and because of this, use with caution.

I think that temperatures during March may end up below average with temperatures in April average near average.

Snowfall during March into early April may end up close to average with a very low possibility of slightly above average snowfall.

Here is what I’m thinking in terms of snow totals during March into early April:

Western Mass:

Pioneer Valley Of Western Mass: Around 8 to 10 Inches.

Hilltowns Of Western Mass: Around 12 to 15 Inches.

Berkshires: Around 15 Inches.

Central Mass:

Northern Worcester County & Northern Worcester Hills: Around 15 Inches.

Worcester Hills West Of I-190: Around 12 to 14 Inches.

Worcester Metro: Around 10 Inches Lower Elevations To 14 Inches up around Airport Hill.

Easternmost Worcester County (I-495): Around 8 Inches.

Southern Worcester County (Areas Near & South Of The Mass Pike): Around 10 to 14 Inches.

In Summary - The winter of 2025 to 2026 could end up being about average to perhaps 1 degree or so above average for temperature as a whole. That said, the period from about Thanksgiving through Christmas and the New Year to about January 10 looks to be quite cold with below average to much below average temperatures anticipated.

As for snowfall, I'm forecasting total snow amounts that are slightly below average for a winter as a whole. It should be noted that most of the snow this winter looks to occur between Thanksgiving and about mid-January & because of this, it’ll certainly feel like a snowier than average winter for a while.

In terms of numbers, this is what I’m thinking across the region in the way of total snow amounts:

Western Mass:

Pioneer Valley Of Western Mass: Around 41 to 48 Inches.

Hilltowns Of Western Mass: Around 62 to 75 Inches.

Berkshires: Around 75 to 80 Inches.

Central Mass:

Northern Worcester County & Northern Worcester Hills: Around 67 to 73 Inches.

Worcester Hills West Of I-190: Around 66 to 68 Inches.

Worcester Metro: Around 55 Inches Lower Elevations To 68 Inches up around Airport Hill.

Easternmost Worcester County (I-495): Around 42 Inches.

Southern Worcester County (Areas Near & South Of The Mass Pike): Around 45 to 61 Inches.

In comparison to last winter (winter of 2024-25), it appears that this upcoming winter could end up being snowier than last winter by about 15 to 20 inches or so. Still though, it appears that this winter may see seasonal snow totals that are 5 to 10 inches below average.

Given everything that I’ve said, I want to point out that this winter could very well end up being much snowier than this. Alternatively, it’s also in the realm of possibilities that this winter could end up being less snowy than what I’m forecasting. My hunch though is that if we’re going to error either way, it may end up being on the snowier side this winter.

A snowfall forecast in any seasonal forecast has a very low amount of confidence. The reason why is because it only takes a couple of storms or so to make or break a season and this is something that just cannot be forecast months in advance. Because of this, my advice is to use my forecast as a general guide as to when the worst of winter might occur rather than a detailed outlook.

Quite A Bit In The Way Of Showers Are Expected From Tonight Through Monday; Tuesday Still Looks COLD Across Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon: An area of low pressure is expected to track across western Pennsylvania and western New York State this afternoon.

Some sunshine early this afternoon will quickly give way to cloudy skies as the afternoon progresses. Scattered showers are expected to overspread the entire area by about 4-5 pm this afternoon.

Temperatures will be between 50 and 55 Degrees. Winds will be Southeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: That low pressure system is expected to begin moving to the east from western New York State tonight reaching the New York-Mass border by early Monday morning.

Scattered showers are expected from time to time during tonight. It appears that most of the shower activity should occur during this evening. Additionally, areas of drizzle and fog can be expected throughout tonight.

Low temperatures will be near 45 Degrees. Winds will be East to Southeast at 5 to 10 mph for most of the night. The winds will become Westerly at 5 to 10 mph very late tonight.

Monday: An area of low pressure and its associated cold front is expected to push across Southern New England during the day on Monday. It appears that the front will move through Western Mass between 8 and 10 am and through Central Mass between 11 am and 1 pm. Falling temperatures can be expected once the front moves through your location.

Scattered to even widespread showers can be expected throughout Monday morning. As we move through Monday afternoon, the shower coverage will become much more scattered in nature.

The high temperatures on Monday of 55 to 60 Degrees look to occur during the morning. Temperatures are then expected to fall into the 40s during the afternoon.

Winds will be West a 5 to 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy skies are expected throughout Monday night. I do think that the air mass should dry up enough to prevent any snow showers from occurring on the backside of that front.

Low temperatures will be near 25 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday Will Be A COLD Day: A cold and windy day is expected on Tuesday. In fact, temperatures on Tuesday will feel very much like its January outside with readings of at least 10 degrees to even 15 degrees below average.

A mixture of sunshine can be expected throughout the day on Tuesday. There is the possibility of some scattered snow flurries from late morning through the afternoon hours due to a very cold air mass aloft.

High temperatures will be between 34 and 38 Degrees. Winds will be West at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph. Wind chill temperatures on Tuesday will be in the middle 20s.

Tuesday Night: Generally mostly cloudy skies are expected during Tuesday night. There is the possibility that a weather disturbance could move across northern New England during the late night hours. This disturbance could be close enough to bring some scattered snow showers to the area during the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning.

Low temperatures will be between 20 and 25 Degrees.

Wednesday: It is anticipated that a weather disturbance will continue to move across northern New England during Wednesday morning.

It is possible that a couple of scattered snow showers could occur across the region during Wednesday morning. This should be followed by a mixture of sunshine and clouds during the afternoon.

High temperatures will be near 45 Degrees.

Thursday & Friday: Colder than average temperatures are expected to persist across the area through the end of this coming week.

Thursday and Friday both look partly sunny. High temperatures both days will be near 45 Degrees.

Next Weekend: Cold weather for this time of year is expected to persist through all of next weekend as we remain underneath an upper level trough of low pressure.

Saturday looks sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures near 40 Degrees.

Next Sunday is expected to be sunny with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees.

Widespread Showers Are Expected Tonight Into Early Saturday Morning; Tuesday Looks COLD Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: An area of high pressure is expected to move offshore during this afternoon as a frontal system rapidly approaches from the west.

Skies throughout the rest of this afternoon will start out partly sunny early this afternoon & become cloudy by late afternoon. Temperatures will be near 50 Degrees. Winds will be South to Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Tonight: That frontal boundary is expected to push across the region during tonight bringing with it widespread showers.

It appears that widespread showers will overspread all of Western and Central Mass between 8 pm and 10 pm this evening. These widespread showers will continue through a large part of tonight before coming to an end between 3 am and 6 am Saturday morning. That said, some showers may hang on across southern and southeastern Worcester County through at least sunrise Saturday morning.

Low temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Saturday: A majority of the showers will be done by sunrise Saturday morning across much of the area. The only possible exception to this may be across far southern and southeastern parts of Worcester County (I-395 & Route 146 corridors) where some lingering isolated showers may hang on through mid-morning.

By Saturday afternoon, skies are expected to become partly sunny. High temperatures will be near 60 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday & Sunday Night: An area of low pressure is expected to track through the eastern Great Lakes region during Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. At the same time this is occurring, a secondary low pressure system is expected to form near coastal parts of Southern New England late Sunday & track towards the Maine coast on Sunday night.

Cloudy skies are expected throughout the day on Sunday. Rain will begin across the entire area by mid to late afternoon with the rain continuing through all of Sunday night.

High temperatures Sunday will be near 50 Degrees. Low temperatures Sunday night will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds during the day Sunday will be East to Southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Winds on Sunday night will be Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Monday: Monday looks to start out with rain continuing throughout the morning. The rain should be done by midday Monday with cloudy skies expected during Monday afternoon.

High temperatures will be near 50 Degrees.

It Looks COLD On Tuesday: A deep upper level trough will dig into the eastern United States leading to the likelihood of a Tuesday that feels very much like winter.

A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected throughout the day on Tuesday & it will be windy. In addition, there’s the possibility of an isolated snow flurry or two during the afternoon hours. This slight chance of a snow flurry or two is due to the very cold air mass aloft & streamers of Lake Effect snow squalls moving eastward from the eastern Great Lakes & possibly reaching our area in the form of a snow flurry or two.

High temperatures Tuesday will be between 35 and 40 Degrees.

Wednesday Through Next Friday: While temperatures may be a slight bit milder for the second half of next week, the overall weather pattern looks rather chilly across the region right through the end of next week.

Wednesday is expected to be cloudy with a passing isolated shower or two during the afternoon. High temperatures will be near 50 Degrees.

Thursday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees.

Next Friday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 40 Degrees.