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Western & Central Mass Weather Outlook For Both November & This Winter

Weather Outlook For The Month Of November: It looks like the month of November, as a whole, may end up slightly colder than average along with near to slightly above average precipitation. In addition, I do think that the first widespread accumulation of snow may occur during November with the most probably time line of this occurring around the weekend of November 11-12 and then again possibly around Thanksgiving weekend. The upper level weather pattern for the month of November looks to consist of one that includes an upper level trough over the eastern United States and a high pressure ridge over the western United States. This is the type of weather pattern that leads to colder than average temperatures over Southern New England with the possibility of snow chances at times. At the surface, the overall weather pattern looks pretty fast moving with the typical downshift into winter. This will include frequent passages of low pressure through the area every 5-7 days or so. The track of each low pressure system will certainly need to be watched as it will dictate whether the precipitation will be all rain, mostly all snow or a mixed bag across the region. All-in-all, I don’t think that November will be a boring month in terms of weather. Temperature: As a whole, I’m forecasting temperatures during the month of November to be between 1 and 2 degrees below average. The coldest temperatures of November look to occur during the first 10 days or so of the month with readings that are 3 to 5 degrees below average. As we get into the later parts of November, temperatures may “warm” up to near average to even a little above average. Precipitation: I’m forecasting near average precipitation for the month of November. This will be in the form of rain, snow and any mixed precipitation. Current indications point towards the possibility of the first appreciable precipitation event may occur around next Tuesday and next Wednesday and this looks to be in the form of rain. Beyond this, another round of possible appreciable precipitation may occur during the weekend of November 11-12 & it’s ***possible*** this could be in the form of snow or a mixed bag of snow and rain. In terms of total precipitation amounts for the month of November, my thinking is for between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation and this is about average for November. Snowfall: As I have mentioned already, I do think that the first widespread accumulating snow will occur during November. As a whole, between 3 and 6 inches of snowfall looks possible during November. Amounts closer to 3 inches look possible across areas near and south of the Mass Pike and snow amounts closer to 6 inches look possible across areas near and north of Route 2. Snowfall forecasting a month in advance is always very difficult and one winter storm could blow my snow forecast for November away. If there is going to be a winter storm during November, I currently think that the highest chance of it occurring may be either during the weekend of November 11 & 12 and during Thanksgiving weekend. Winter Outlook: Winter outlooks are extremely difficult to come up with and send out as there are so many different & conflicting signals for an outlook that goes from December until March. This means that this outlook could go very right or it could go down in flames (like last winter’s snowfall forecast). Anyways, here it goes: I do think that the first half of this winter will be dominated by El Nino conditions, which will lead to an active southern storm track. This could lead to any coastal storms to safely pass to the south and east of our area. In addition, I do think that the first part of the winter may end up warmer than average. As we get into the later parts of this winter and towards the first part of Spring, it’s possible that the El Nino conditions may vanish leading to a storm track that may end up closer to our area. Also, the later parts of this winter may end up colder than average with most of the snow occurring then. December: Most of the data seems to be pointing towards a warmer than average December with temperature readings that are 2 to 3 degrees above average. Above average precipitation looks quite possible during the month of December with a storm track that takes any low pressure systems right over or just north of our area. This means that I currently think we’ll see below average snowfall for the month of December. In terms of possible snow amounts in December, I think amounts may range from 5 to 10 inches across areas near and south of the Mass Pike to 10 to 15 inches across areas near and north of Route 2. January: January could be a big transition month where things start out warm with more rain than snow at the beginning of the month to colder than average temperatures and a snowy weather pattern towards the end of the month. Overall, I think that January may end up about 1 to 2 degrees above average for temperature with most of that warmth occurring during the first part of January. The snow forecast for January is a huge wildcard as I do think that the southern storm track could be quite active and potent. This could either lead to a very snowy month as coastal storms are able to impact out area or it could lead to all of the storms impacting the Mid-Atlantic States and leaving our area with little snow. My current thinking is for snow totals across the region may end up between near average to slightly above average. This means that snow totals for January may range from about 15 inches across areas near and south of the Mass Pike to about 30 inches across areas near and north of Route 2. February: If there are going to be any really big winter storms this winter, I think that February has the greatest chance of seeing them. Widespread colder than average temperatures with above average snowfall is a distinct possibility across the entire area. My take is that February may end up being colder than January overall with temperature readings that are up to 2 degrees below average. As for snowfall, a lot is going to hinge on what looks to be a very active southern storm track that could really give us some notable storms in February. On the other hand, if the storm track is even a little suppressed, it could mean areas just to our south get blasted by winter while we remain quite cold, but with little snow. My current thinking is that snow totals for February may range from near average to slightly below average across the far northern Worcester Hills to slightly above average for snowfall across areas south of the Mass Pike. In terms of possible snow totals during February, it’s possible that totals may range from near 10 to 15 inches across areas near and north of Route 2 to about 25 inches of total snowfall across areas near and especially south of the Mass Pike. March: There’s the possibility of one last gasp of winter during the first of March before temperatures warm up to above average for the later parts of March. If there’s going to be any appreciable snow, it’d potentially occur during early March before we get into a fairly mild weather pattern later in March. Temperatures during March look to be about 1 to 2 degrees above average with most of that warmth occurring during the later parts of the month. Near average precipitation looks possible during March with slightly below average snowfall for the month. My thinking is that snow totals during March may end up ranging from 3 to 5 inches across areas near and south of the Mass Pike to perhaps as much as 10 inches of snow during March across areas near and north of Route 2. In Summary - The winter of 2023 to 2024 could end up being about 1 to 2 degrees above average for temperature as a whole. That said, it’s possible that late January into much of February could be particularly quite cold. As for snowfall, I'm forecasting total snow amounts that are about average for a winter as a whole across the entire area. You can find a more “detailed” map of what I’m forecasting in terms of total snowfall below.


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