Warm & Humid From This Afternoon Through Tuesday Along With The Threat For Showers & Thunderstorms From Time To Time

For This Afternoon: A mixture of some sunshine and lots of clouds can be expected throughout this afternoon. It will be warm and humid with dew point temperatures between 70 and 75 Degrees.

One question regarding this afternoon’s weather is whether there will be any showers or thunderstorms or not. The atmosphere is plenty unstable to support thunderstorms, however, the closest forcing is a stationary frontal system located over northern New England.

My thinking is that there may be some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible primarily during the mid and late afternoon hours. While strong or severe thunderstorms are not expected, any thunderstorms that do occur will be capable of producing heavy downpours.

Temperatures this afternoon will be between 85 and 90 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

Tonight: A warm and humid night is expected across the area under generally cloudy skies. Given that the difference between low temperatures and dew point temperatures will be nearly zero, I do think that some areas of fog is likely during the after midnight hours.

Low temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday & Tuesday Night: A very warm and humid day is expected on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures of 85 to 90 Degrees combined with dew point temperatures of 70 to 75 Degrees will lead to a fairly unstable air mass across the region. This unstable air mass will combine with the forcing from a frontal boundary draped across the region to produce shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening hours. How widespread the showers and thunderstorms will be remains uncertain.

Looking at the weather forecast guidance, it seems that some of the guidance is showing most of the showers and thunderstorms to occur across Connecticut, Rhode Island and the Cape with perhaps some scattered storms making it into our area by Tuesday evening. Other weather forecast guidance keeps our area dry all day Tuesday and all of Tuesday evening & doesn’t bring any thunderstorms into our area until the predawn hours of Wednesday morning.

At this point, my thinking is that we’ll probably see scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours. Heavy downpours look to be the main threat from any thunderstorms. That said, an isolated strong thunderstorm is a possibility, which could produce wind gusts of up to 40-50 mph.

Turning to later Tuesday night, there is the possibility for a second round of showers and thunderstorms to move through between about 3 am and 7 am Wednesday morning. Heavy downpours look to be the main threat from any thunderstorms.

Wednesday Through Friday: A humid moisture laden southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across our area throughout Wednesday and Thursday. This means that rounds of showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times on both Wednesday and Thursday. The timing of exactly when they will affect our area is uncertain.

For now, this is what I’m thinking -

Wednesday will be cloudy and there may be some late afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees.

Thursday looks cloudy with at least scattered showers expected during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be near 70 Degrees. Dew point temperatures are expected to be around 65 Degrees.

Friday looks cloudy and continued humid with high temperatures near 75 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees.

This Weekend: The weather looks to turn nice for this weekend as a high pressure system builds over the area. This will provide the area a little cooler than average temperatures with comfortable humidity levels.

Saturday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be between 55 and 60 Degrees.

Sunday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 80 Degrees. Dew point temperatures will be between 55 and 60 Degrees.