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Scattered Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Expected Monday Afternoon & Monday Evening

For This Afternoon: Hot and humid weather is expected this afternoon across the entire area under sunny to partly sunny skies. In addition, there’s the possibility for a late day thunderstorm in some areas, however, most spots should stay dry. Temperatures will be around 95 Degrees across most areas with temperatures near 100 Degrees expected in the Connecticut River Valley. Winds will be southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Tonight: Some isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening, especially across Western Mass. During the overnight hours of tonight, expect varying amounts of clouds and it’ll be very warm and very humid. Low temperatures will be near 75 Degrees. Winds will be southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Scattered Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Expected Monday Afternoon & Monday Evening: There’s a fairly strong signal for a severe weather event across Western and Central Mass during Monday afternoon and Monday evening. The setup for this potential severe weather will include: 1. A strong trough of low pressure at the mid-levels of the atmosphere that’ll move eastward from the Great Lakes region. 2. Increasing northwest winds at the mid-levels of the atmosphere will combine with southerly surface winds to lead to strong amounts of low-level wind shear. 3. A very warm and very humid air mass on Monday will lead to at least moderate amounts of unstable air across the region. There are some uncertain factors in the forecast that could inhibit a truly significant severe weather outbreak. These include the possibility for some morning shower and thunderstorm activity as well as the possibility of lots of clouds persisting into the early afternoon hours. Either or both of these factors could limit the atmosphere from becoming very unstable. Here Are My Thoughts: I think that there’s enough evidence in the data to suggest that a robust line of strong to severe thunderstorms will enter far northwestern and far western Mass around the 12 pm-2 pm time frame and then push southeastward reaching areas near the Mass Pike by about the 3-5 pm time frame. Given the combination of a potentially quite unstable air mass, strong low-level wind shear and quite a bit of forcing from a cold front that’ll be pushing through the area, I think that we’re in for a squall line that’ll contain embedded supercells. This means that these storms will have the potential to produce wind gusts of up to 55 to 70 mph, a couple of tornadoes, frequent lightning and heavy downpours. All thunderstorm activity should push out of the area by about the 6-8 pm time frame. The severe weather threat for Monday is something that I’m watching extremely closely and additional updates will be sent out as needed. It will be very warm and very humid on Monday with high temperatures around 85 Degrees. Winds will be southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Tuesday Through Saturday: Tuesday and Wednesday look like fantastic days in terms of A LOT less humidity (dew point temperatures will be in the 50s) under sunny to partly sunny skies both days. High temperatures Tuesday will be between 80 and 85 Degrees. High temperatures Wednesday will be near 85 Degrees. A frontal system is expected to push through the area Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening bringing with it the potential for shower and thunderstorm activity. High temperatures will be near 85 Degrees. It’s possible that the frontal boundary may hang near the area during Friday bringing with it some scattered shower activity throughout Friday. High temperatures will be near 85 Degrees. An area of high pressure pushes into the region during Saturday and this will lead to a sunny to partly sunny day. High temperatures will be between 80 and 85 Degrees.

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