For This Afternoon: Quite the sunny afternoon is expected across the region as an area of high pressure controls the weather. High temperatures this afternoon will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Tonight: An area of high pressure will control the weather during the first half of tonight before a frontal system begins to approach the area late tonight. This all means that skies will be clear to partly cloudy this evening with skies becoming cloudy after midnight tonight. Some freezing drizzle is possible very late tonight across Western Mass as increasing moisture begins to move in from the west. Low temperatures tonight will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Thursday: A frontal boundary is expected to push through the region during the day on Thursday. Skies on Thursday will be cloudy throughout the day and it appears that there will be 2 time periods where showers will be a threat. The first will be between 7 am and 10 am with some scattered snow and rain showers possible. The second time period looks to be from about 4 pm and 8 pm with some scattered rain showers possible. All-in-all, the amount of rain that falls is expected to be light. High temperatures Thursday will be near 45 Degrees. Friday & Saturday: A sunny to partly sunny day is expected on Friday with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. Saturday is expected to be partly sunny and quite mild with high temperatures between 50 and 55 Degrees. A Storm To Keep A Close Eye On For Sunday Into Monday: I am still keeping a very close eye on a storm system that's expected to take shape near the North Carolina coast on Sunday morning and then head northeastward. The big question is how close will this storm system track to our area. The trend in the weather forecast guidance over the past 24 hours is for a sharper upper level trough of low pressure to form over the eastern United States late this weekend. This leads to a storm track that's closer to Southern New England as compared to what it looked like 24 hours ago. These trends in the weather guidance will need to be watched closely as the pieces of the atmospheric puzzle are very close to producing a good sized snowstorm on Sunday into Monday. With that said, everything is going to have to work out "perfectly" to get a full-blown snowstorm here in Western and Central Mass. The reason why is that there is no blocking in the atmosphere and the entire upper level wind flow is pretty fast. This means that all of the atmospheric disturbances are going to have to line up perfectly to produce a storm track that comes close to our area. If that doesn't happen, then we'd end up with a storm track that's well east of the Cape.
Here Are My Thoughts: I’m not ready yet to buy into a full blown snowstorm scenario. Instead, I think that we may end up seeing that storm system track just east of Nantucket on Sunday night and Monday morning. This means that snow may begin across the entire area around mid to late morning Sunday. The snow then is expected to continue through all of Sunday afternoon, all of Sunday night and part of Monday morning. At this point, it appears that the snow may come to an end by late morning Monday. Overall, it appears that the snow intensity may be light and because of this total snow amounts may range from 1 to 2 inches across Western Mass as well as across the northern Worcester Hills to 2 to 4 inches of possible snowfall across areas near and south of Route 9 in Central Mass (includes Worcester metro, the Brookfields, Spencer, Sturbridge, Charlton, Auburn, Oxford, Webster and Uxbridge). Now, could we see a much bigger storm Sunday into Monday? Absolutely!! As I already mentioned, it's not going to take much of a change in the atmospheric pattern and dynamics to produce a bigger storm and this is something that I'll be keeping a close eye on. With that said, I’m still skeptical that we’ll see a big snowstorm from this and I’m not yet ready to jump on that wagon.