For The Rest Of Today: Plenty of sunshine is expected throughout the rest of today as an area of high pressure controls our weather. High temperatures today will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Tonight & Wednesday: An area of low pressure will track well offshore of the New England coast during Wednesday. A trough of low pressure extending northwestward from this low pressure center will cross Southern New England late tonight into Wednesday. Skies will become cloudy this evening and some light precipitation will overspread the entire area very late tonight. This precipitation looks to be in the form of some light freezing rain and freezing drizzle, especially in the Worcester Hills and the Hilltowns of Western Mass where colder air may get dammed up due to a northerly wind flow. Outside of the Worcester Hills and the Hilltowns of Western Mass, the precipitation looks to be in the form of drizzle and some very light rain late tonight. On Wednesday morning, some freezing drizzle and very light freezing rain is expected mostly in the Worcester Hills and across the Hilltowns of Western Mass, while other areas of Western and Central Mass remain as light rain and drizzle on Wednesday morning. All precipitation will come to an end by about midday Wednesday. The freezing drizzle and light freezing rain threat may be just enough to create some slippery roads in the Worcester Hills and the Hilltowns of Western Mass late tonight and Wednesday morning. Skies will gradually clear out during Wednesday afternoon with high temperatures near 40 Degrees expected. Thursday: An area of high pressure will very briefly control our weather for Thursday with plenty of sunshine expected. High temperatures Thursday will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Christmas Eve: A warm front is expected to pass through the area during the morning on Christmas Eve. It looks like there may be just enough lift and moisture with this warm front to produce a little bit of light snow during the morning on Christmas Eve. It appears that some light snow will overspread Western and Central Mass just before sunrise on Christmas Eve. This very light snow is then expected to continue during the entire morning on Christmas Eve. The light snow is expected to come to an end around early afternoon on Christmas Eve. As I already said, I think that snow accumulations may be on the light side with perhaps around one inch of snow accumulation possible. High temperatures on Christmas Eve will be near 35 Degrees. Christmas Day & Sunday: I am still keeping an eye on a couple of areas of low pressure for Christmas Day and Sunday as they could bring some winter weather impacts. The weather forecast guidance are all over the place and not in all that great agreement on what may occur on not only Christmas Day, but also on Sunday as well. Some of the weather forecast guidance, such as the GFS model, is showing a weak storm system to come through on Christmas Day with a little bit of light snow for Christmas Day, but then shows a followup much stronger storm system for Sunday that brings significant snow amounts to the area on Sunday. At this point, I’m not buying into this idea because there is no support from other weather forecast guidance for this type of scenario. Other weather forecast guidance, such as the European model, is forecasting a weak storm system to move through on Christmas Day bringing with it a mixture of light rain and light snow. The European model then points to the possibility of a followup weak storm system for Sunday that brings a round of light snow to the area during the day on Sunday. Finally, other weather forecast guidance, such as the Canadian model, is forecasting a long duration light snow event that begins just before sunrise on Christmas Day and then continues all day Christmas Day and lasts into Christmas night and into Sunday. This scenario leads to several inches of snow accumulation, just because of the long duration of the snow falling. Here Are My Thoughts: The best and most appropriate way to go with the forecast is to take out the two extreme weather forecast model scenarios. So, I’m not quite buying into a significant snowfall for Sunday and I’m not buying into the idea of a snowfall that lasts 36 plus consecutive hours. Instead, given the trends in the data, I think we may see two rounds of light snow this coming weekend. The first round looks to occur beginning during the predawn hours of Christmas morning and continues through all of Christmas morning before ending around midday. It appears that the precipitation type with this first round may be in the form of light snow to begin with that changes to a snow, sleet and rain mixture. The snow amounts on Christmas morning look to be very light and probably on the order of perhaps 1 to 2 inches or so. This will not cause travel problems, but it will be enough snow for there to be an actual White Christmas. The second round may occur beginning around sunrise on Sunday morning and then continues though all of Sunday morning before ending around midday Sunday. Sunday morning’s precipitation type looks to be in the form of all light snow. Snow amounts on Sunday morning also looks to be on the light side with amounts of 1 to 2 inches possible. Impacts to travel on Sunday morning look very minimal.
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