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An Unsettled Sunday Is Expected Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: Hazy, smoky skies are expected for the remainder of this afternoon. It will be warm and humid with temperatures between 80 and 85 Degrees. Winds will be South at 5 to 10 mph. Tonight: Skies are expected to start out partly cloudy tonight with skies becoming cloudy after midnight. In addition, some scattered showers will overspread Western Mass by very late tonight. Low temperatures will be between 60 and 65 Degrees. Winds will be South at 5 to 10 mph. Sunday: A more unsettled day is expected for Sunday as a warm front slowly crosses the region. This means that skies on Sunday will be cloudy and it will be humid. In addition, there will be on and off scattered showers throughout the day. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Winds will be South at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and South at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Sunday Night: That warm front will be located to the north of the area during Sunday night putting us in a very humid air mass. Skies will be cloudy and there will be scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the night. While Sunday night does not look like a washout, there will be the threat for a few showers and thunderstorms that will contain some very heavy downpours, given the very humid air mass. Monday: Some very early morning scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move out of the region by 8-9 am. We will then be left with several hours of dry weather with a mixture of sunshine and clouds likely from mid-morning right until about early to mid-afternoon. One unknown to the forecast right now is how much sunshine will there be on Monday. This is important because the more sunshine we see, the more unstable the atmosphere will be for incoming thunderstorms by late afternoon. Pulling out the severe weather “checklist” reveals that a few of the ingredients for strong to severe thunderstorms are being checked off. This includes the potential for an unstable air mass and plenty of humid air. One ingredient that is lacking right now is the amount of wind shear available. Right now, weather guidance points to low amounts of wind shear, which would preclude a significant severe weather event. For now, I think that scattered thunderstorms are likely during the late afternoon and evening hours of Monday. A couple of the thunderstorms could be strong to possibly severe with very gusty winds the main threat. In addition, torrential downpours and frequent lightning will also be likely with any thunderstorms. High temperatures will be between 80 and 85 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Independence Day: A trough of low pressure is expected to push across the region on Tuesday (Independence Day). Even though skies will feature a mixture of sunshine and clouds, I do think that the combination of the forcing from the trough passing through and an unstable air mass will lead to the threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. High temperatures will be near 85 Degrees. Wednesday Through Friday: It appears that a ridge of high pressure will build across the region for the second half of next week. This means that at least a couple of days of dry weather can be expected, but it will be very warm and humid. Wednesday looks sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures between 85 and 90 Degrees. Thursday is expected to be sunny, hot and humid with high temperatures between 90 and 95 Degrees. Friday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 85 and 90 Degrees. Outlook For Next Weekend: Current indications point towards a frontal system affecting the region next week into the the early part of the following week. In addition, a couple of waves of low pressure riding along this front could enhance the rainfall at times. Next Saturday looks cloudy with showers expected during the afternoon and at night. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Next Sunday could be quite the rainy day as a wave of low pressure moves through. For now, I’m thinking widespread showers for next Sunday, but we could easily be looking at steady rain that’s heavy at times during next Sunday. High temperatures will be near 75 Degrees. Finally next Monday’s (July 10) weather will depend on how quickly that wave of low pressure moves. Some weather guidance pushes that low pressure out of the region leaving us with a few showers next Monday. On the other hand, other reliable weather guidance is quite slow in moving that low pressure system. Because of this, it would lead to rain, heavy at times, continuing through next Monday. I’m thinking widespread showers for next Monday morning with the showers becoming more scattered in nature during the afternoon. High temperatures will be near 75 Degrees.

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