An Active Day Of Weather Is Expected Across Western & Central Mass: A warm front is expected to continue pushing northward into our region through midday. Radar imagery as of mid-morning indicates heavy showers and thunderstorms are pushing northeastward into western Mass and western Connecticut. It is expected that this heavy shower and thunderstorm activity will continue overspread the rest of Western Mass and then Central Mass by late morning and then continue into the early to mid-afternoon hours before ending by mid-afternoon. We will then be in a brief break before another round of thunderstorms overspreads the area late this afternoon and then continues into the first half of tonight. The intensity of the thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening is something that will need to be watched extremely closely and this will hinge on how quickly the showers and thunderstorms end around early afternoon. If the warm front pushes through quickly and we heat up and become quite unstable this afternoon, we would really need to watch out for a severe thunderstorm threat late this afternoon and this evening. On the other hand, if the first round of showers and thunderstorms persist well into this afternoon, it could lead to a more stable atmosphere and a much lower threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Looking at the regional radar imagery, it appears to me that the first round of showers and thunderstorms may be done around the Mass Pike by about 2 pm and then done along the Route 2 corridor by about 3-4 pm today. This could be just enough time for the atmosphere to become unstable enough to produce severe weather, especially over the Berkshires and west of I-91 and also near and south of the Mass Pike. Any strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and this evening will be capable of producing wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph, extremely heavy downpours with localized rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches possible, at least a couple of tornadoes and frequent lightning. Given the possible tornado threat due to strong low-level turning in the atmosphere, the thunderstorms late this afternoon & this evening will REALLY need to be watched. Many more updates will be posted as needed depending on how the thunderstorm situation unfolds later today.
