For This Afternoon: Sunny to partly sunny skies with continued windy conditions are expected throughout this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 25 and 30 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 18 to 28 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Tonight: An area of high pressure is expected to build right over the area tonight.
Skies will start out clear to partly cloudy this evening with an increase in high and mid-level clouds expected well after midnight tonight.
Low temperatures will be between 5 and 10 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 7 to 14 mph.
A Snow & Ice Storm Is Still Expected Beginning Late Saturday Afternoon & Lasting Until Sometime On Sunday Evening: If you have plans for anytime between about 4 pm Saturday afternoon and midnight Sunday night, my recommendation to you is to either cancel or reschedule those plans as quite the winter storm consisting of the combination of several inches of snow and a moderate glaze of ice is expected across the entire area.
An area of low pressure is expected to track northeastward across the entire area during Saturday night and Sunday. Unlike the last few storm systems, this low pressure system will move across the area at a little slower speed leading to a more prolonged winter weather event.
Snow is expected to begin across the entire area around the 4 pm time frame on Saturday afternoon. The snow is then expected to continue right through all of Saturday evening and the snow will be moderate to perhaps heavy in intensity at times.
As we get into the after midnight hours of Saturday night, some above freezing air at about 5,000 feet above ground level will try to start pushing into the area. This will cause the snow to change to freezing rain and sleet from south to north well after midnight on Saturday night into the first part of Sunday morning.
How quickly the snow changes to freezing rain and sleet very late Saturday night is uncertain as some pretty cold air seeping in from the northeast will be tough to scour out. Because of this, the changeover line from snow to ice may get “beaten back” for a few hours late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. This is important though as if there is a slower changeover from snow to ice, it could lead to higher snow accumulations than what I’m forecasting right now. Alternatively, if the changeover from snow to ice occurs faster than what I’m forecasting right now, then it would lead to less snow accumulations than what I’m forecasting.
At this time, I think that we’re probably looking at the snow to change to freezing rain and sleet from south to north across the entire area between about 4 am and 8 am Sunday morning.
Forecast Snow Amounts From Late Saturday Afternoon Through Saturday Night: You will find my forecast snow amounts with the map attached to this post. Generally, I’m thinking snow totals will range from 3 to 4 inches for areas south of the Mass Pike and from 4 to 6 inches of snow accumulation for areas near and especially north of the Mass Pike.
Long Duration Freezing Rain Event Expected Throughout The Day On Sunday That Lasts Into Sunday Evening: Freezing rain with some sleet mixed in will be occurring across all of Western and Central Mass throughout Sunday morning. Because of this, I expect very hazardous and downright treacherous travel conditions across the entire area throughout Sunday morning.
The big question continues to be whether the freezing rain changes to rain or not as we get into Sunday afternoon and if it does, how quick will this changeover occur. These parts of the forecast remain quite uncertain.
In looking at the higher resolution models, there continues to be strong evidence that points towards a cold air damming event occurring throughout the day on Sunday. A cold air damming event is when colder air at the surface from northern New England seeps down into our area leading to surface temperatures to either remain below freezing or struggle to rise to above freezing. This cold air damming signature is quite concerning because the precipitation throughout the day on Sunday will be moderate to heavy at times, so if the precipitation stays as freezing rain, we could have some big time icing problems. In fact, the weather forecast guidance that keeps the cold air locked into the area is forecasting widespread ice amounts of one third of an inch to one half of an inch.
At this point, I think the area that has the greatest chance of changing from freezing rain to rain will be across the lower Pioneer Valley and across southeastern parts of Worcester County.
For other areas of Western and Central Mass, including the Mass Pike from Palmer eastward to the I-495 interchange, the I-84 region, the Worcester Metro and all of the towns in the Worcester Hills, it’s beginning to look increasingly more likely that the freezing rain may continue all afternoon on Sunday right into Sunday evening. Also, the middle and upper Pioneer Valley may stay as all freezing rain during Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as cold air near the surface remains locked into the region.
Forecast Ice Amounts During Sunday Into Sunday Evening: You will find my forecast ice accumulation map attached to this post as well. Overall though, please know that I’m being pretty conservative with my forecast regarding freezing rain accumulations on Sunday as I don’t want to start pull out all of the stops in forecasting a significant to major icing event. It should be noted though that some of the most recent weather forecast guidance is showing a pretty significant ice storm on Sunday across the Worcester Hills west of I-190, so you might want to be prepared for this, just in case.
That said, I’m not forecasting a major ice storm at this time and this looks to be more of a moderate freezing rain event for many areas across the region.
Travel conditions throughout late Saturday afternoon, all of Saturday night, all of Sunday and much of Sunday night will be very hazardous to extremely hazardous due to the combination of snow and then ice. I strongly urge you to stay off of the roads from late Saturday afternoon until Sunday night, if you can.
Also, snapped and downed tree limbs and power lines are quite possible during Sunday into Sunday night due to the weight of the ice accumulating onto trees and power lines. This will be a particular concern across the Worcester Hills, the Hilltowns of Western Mass and across the Berkshires.
All precipitation is expected to come to an end by just before midnight on Sunday night.
Frequent updates on this weekend’s storm will be sent out as needed.
Very Windy Conditions Expected Monday Through Tuesday: Very windy conditions still looks very likely from Monday right through Tuesday. This means that any ice weighted tree branches and power lines from the weekend storm may be very susceptible to being snapped leading to power outage issues throughout Monday right through Tuesday.
How windy is it going to be? West to Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph are expected throughout all of Monday, all of Monday night and all of Tuesday.
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