Scattered Thunderstorms With A Few Becoming Strong To Severe Are Expected This Afternoon Into This Evening: A frontal boundary that is currently located over western New York State is expected to push eastward through all of Southern New England by later this afternoon and this evening. Radar imagery as of about the midday hour indicated that showers and thunderstorms are forming across eastern New York State with additional shower and thunderstorm activity developing over far western New York State and northwestern Pennsylvania. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the entire area by about the 1 to 2 pm time frame with the peak of the thunderstorm activity expected to occur between about 3-4 pm and about 6-7 pm or so. Most of the thunderstorm activity is expected to push out of the area by about 7-8 pm. As for the severe thunderstorm risk this afternoon and this evening – A combination of modest amounts of unstable air and wind shear, along with a hot and humid atmosphere will lead to the potential for a few of the thunderstorms to be on the strong to severe side. Wind gusts of up to 40-65 mph, extremely heavy downpours and frequent lightning strikes will all be the main threats with any strong to severe storms. That said, there’s the possibility that a storm or two could become a supercell and pose a threat for small hail and even an isolated tornado due to the moderate amounts of low-level wind shear. One thing that we’re going to have to keep a very close eye on with all of the thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening is the possibility for prolonged heavy downpours due to slow moving thunderstorms that redevelop over the same areas. Localized rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible, especially across areas near and south of the Mass Pike. These sorts of rainfall amounts over a short amount of time is probably going to lead to poor drainage flooding, urban flooding and road and highway flooding. Should one of these slow moving thunderstorms that redevelop over the same place moves over either the Springfield or Worcester Metro areas, it could lead to quite the urban flood event. Truth be told though, it’s nearly impossible to forecast the exact square mile that thunderstorms will develop hours in advance and thus I am going to be monitoring exactly where these thunderstorms develop and move towards this afternoon and this evening. Additional updates will be sent out as needed.
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