The shower and thunderstorm activity that occurred across the entire area from the pre-dawn hours through mid-morning has now just about ended. This means that we are now left with some hazy sunshine and very humid conditions.
The question now becomes how extensive and how strong will the thunderstorm activity be a little later this afternoon? It appears that all of the shower/thunderstorm activity may have stabilized the atmosphere a little more than what was thought would occur. This means that we may be left with a lot less thunderstorm activity than what was previously anticipated.
With that said, I think that we will probably see scattered thunderstorms develop by about 3-4 pm this afternoon with most of this activity occurring near and especially south of the Mass Pike. In fact, areas across the upper Pioneer Valley and the northern Worcester Hills may not see any thunderstorm activity at all.
The scattered thunderstorm activity looks to continue into early this evening before ending by about 7-8 pm or so.
Given that the atmosphere should still be quite unstable, especially near and south of the Mass Pike, I think that some of the thunderstorms will be strong to severe with wind gusts of up to 50-65 mph, small hail and frequent lightning. Additionally, extremely heavy downpours are also expected with any thunderstorm activity, which will lead to localized urban, street and poor drainage flooding.
If you have outdoor plans this afternoon, be very aware of any approaching thunderstorms. If a thunderstorm does approach you, seek shelter. These storms are very likely to contain frequent lightning and because of this, I caution you that if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.
More updates will be sent out as needed.