Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Still Expected This Afternoon & This Evening

A very active afternoon and evening is expected across Western and Central Mass with strong to severe thunderstorms likely. These thunderstorms are expected to bring with them flash flooding, wind gusts of 55-75 mph, quarter size hail, frequent lightning and a few tornadoes. Weather analysis as of just before midday reveals an area of low pressure is located near far northern New York State. A trough of low pressure extends southward into central and eastern New York State. This trough of low pressure is going to be the focus and the trigger to set off thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and quite a few of these thunderstorms will be on the strong to severe side. The atmosphere setup for these thunderstorms are going to include hot and very humid air producing a very unstable air mass. This will combine with a strong low-level wind shear that could lead to a thunderstorm environment that’s uncommon here in Western and Central Mass. Digging deeper into the data reveals that the winds in the lower part of the atmosphere are stronger than what they are in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. This is uncommon to see unless it’s during a tropical storm passage as usually we see stronger winds at the mid and upper levels than at the low levels of the atmosphere. Additionally, there is a fairly decent amount of turning of winds in the low-levels of the atmosphere at the time of this writing. All this means is that the wind profiles are supportive of sustaining severe thunderstorms that may try to rotate. There are a couple of factors that may dampen the severe weather threat (fail modes, so to speak). These include temperatures struggling to warm much more due to cloud cover leading to less instability than what is currently forecast. Also, it’s possible that a layer of warm and dry air could set up at about 20,000 feet above the ground. This could cap the atmosphere to some extent and lead to thunderstorms having a hard time really exploding up into the sky. This could limit the number of severe thunderstorms that actually occur during this afternoon and this evening. Here Are My Latest Thoughts On This Afternoon & Evening’s Weather: Thunderstorms are now beginning to develop over eastern New York State as of midday. I think that we’ll see these storms intensify with many of these storms becoming strong to severe over the next couple of hours. These strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to push into the area from the Berkshires to the northern Worcester Hills by about 1-3 pm or so this afternoon. These storms are expected to head in an east-southeasterly direction and reach areas from the lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass through the western Worcester Hills to the I-190 corridor by about the 3-5 pm time frame. It’s currently anticipated that these strong to severe thunderstorms will make their way into the corridor that includes the Mass Pike, I-84, I-395 and Route 146 by about 4-6 pm. These storms are expected to continue into early this evening before pushing off to the southeast and ending by about 9-10 pm. Given the amount of wind shear, the degree of instability and the amount of forcing, we should see the potential for multiple individual supercell thunderstorms rather than a squall line. These severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 55-75 mph, quarter size hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours with a flash flood threat and a few tornadoes. I am watching this afternoon and evening’s severe weather threat extremely closely and will have many more updates as needed.

Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Is Likely Thursday Afternoon & Thursday Evening

Thursday is expected to be a busy weather day in terms of strong to severe thunderstorms. These thunderstorms are expected to bring with them flash flooding, strong wind gusts of 50-70 mph, quarter size hail, frequent lightning and a few tornadoes. A robust low pressure system is expected to push eastward from the Great Lakes region during the day on Thursday. A warm front is forecast to lift northward into our area during the morning and this may lead to a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two to occur from about mid-morning to about early afternoon. The main show, so to speak, is expected to accompany a trough of low pressure that moves through during Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. The atmosphere ahead of this trough of low pressure is expected to be at least moderately unstable with fairly strong amounts of low-level wind shear. These ingredients are favorable for a potentially robust severe weather day. One factor that may be detriment to a robust severe weather event is the possibility for a layer of warm and dry air to set up at about 20,000 feet above the ground. This could cap the atmosphere to some extent and lead to thunderstorms having a hard time really exploding up into the sky. This could limit the number of severe thunderstorms that actually occur during Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Here Are My Thoughts On What May Occur Thursday Afternoon & Thursday Evening: Strong to severe thunderstorms look to form initially across eastern New York State around the 1-3 pm time frame Thursday. These storms are expected to push into Western and then Central Mass around the 4-6 pm time frame. These storms are then anticipated to continue into early Thursday evening before pushing off to the southeast and ending by about 10-11 pm. Given the amount of wind shear, the degree of instability and the amount of forcing, we should see the potential for multiple individual supercell thunderstorms rather than a squall line. These severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 50-70 mph, quarter size hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours with a flash flood threat and a few tornadoes. I have been watching the severe weather this afternoon across the lower part of Michigan and so far there has been quite a bit in the way of wind damage due to the thunderstorm activity. This says to me that strong winds probably will be the main threat with the severe weather Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening here in Western and Central Mass. The reason why is because there is a 24 hour teleconnector between severe weather in lower Michigan and southern New England. Meaning if there is severe weather across lower Michigan, we should see similar activity in Southern New England one day later. I am watching the severe weather potential for Thursday afternoon and evening very closely and will have updates as needed. Beyond This, it appears that another round of strong to severe thunderstorms may be in the cards during Saturday afternoon as a cold front crashes into a hot and very humid air mass. The storms Saturday afternoon will have the potential to produce very gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning and torrential downpours with flash flooding. Finally, it is expected to be hot and very humid on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. High temperatures Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be between 90 and 95 Degrees. Heat Index readings on Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be around 100 Degrees.

Severe Weather Is Quite Possible Thursday Afternoon & Evening Across Western & Central Mass

I am becoming increasingly more concerned for the potential for severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. In fact, if all of the parameters come together, we could be looking at quite the severe weather event Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. The weather setup for Thursday is going to consist of a trough of low pressure pushing through the region during late Thursday and Thursday night. The air mass during Thursday is expected to be very warm with afternoon temperatures of 85 to 90 Degrees and very humid with dew point temperatures of 70 to 75 Degrees expected. This will lead to the atmosphere becoming unstable by Thursday afternoon. One factor that may put a cap on the severe weather potential is that the amount of lifting in the mid-levels of the atmosphere may not be very strong. This could lead to thunderstorms having a hard time really exploding in development. On the other hand though, the dynamics and energy with the trough passage is expected to be rather strong and there could be some turning of winds as you go up in the atmosphere. This means that storms that do develop during Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening may be able to rotate and spin. My take on this is that we should see numerous thunderstorms develop across the region during the mid and late afternoon hours of Thursday and continue into Thursday evening before wrapping up around midnight Thursday night. Based on the latest available data, the combination of strong wind shear, strong forcing from the trough of low pressure and the unstable, very warm and very humid air mass will lead to scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms which will be capable of producing wind gusts of 50-70 mph, quarter size hail, frequent lightning, torrential downpours with a flash flood threat and even a couple to a few tornadoes. If we end up see more lift occur in the mid-levels in the atmosphere and that capping disappears, then we could see a much greater severe weather event across the region. Something to watch, but for now, I’m not going that robust of a forecast. One final thing to watch during the day on Wednesday is to track the robustness of the severe weather across lower Michigan and look for the 24 hour teleconnector severe weather rule as it relates to southern New England. This means that if lower Michigan sees significant or major severe weather during Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday evening, like is currently forecast, then southern New England will have a much higher chance of seeing the same sort of severe weather 24 hours later or on Thursday afternoon and evening. On the other hand, if the severe weather fails to measure up across lower Michigan during Wednesday, then we may luck out here on Thursday. The key thing to look out for is to see how bad the severe weather is across lower Michigan on Wednesday and this should give us a gauge on how bad the severe weather may be during Thursday afternoon and evening here in Western and Central Mass. I will be watching the severe weather potential for Thursday afternoon and evening very closely and will have updates as needed.