Absolutely Gorgeous Temperature & Humidity Levels Expected Through Wednesday

For This Afternoon: Absolutely gorgeous weather is expected for this afternoon with temperatures expected to be near 75 Degrees and refreshing humidity levels (dew point temperatures in the 50s). Winds will be Northwest at 10 to 20 mph. In addition to this, partly sunny skies are expected this afternoon. Tonight: An area of high pressure will build into the region tonight giving us a night that the central air & A/C units can be given a break & we can all sleep with the windows open. Skies tonight will be clear to partly cloudy with low temperatures near 55 Degrees. Winds will be West to Northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Monday: Monday wont be quite as nice as today, but temperature and humidity levels are expected to remain quite comfortable. Skies on Monday will start out sunny to partly sunny, but clouds will build up during the afternoon as a cold front pushes southward from northern New England. There might be just enough unstable air around to produce a few showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening hours as that front moves through. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. Winds will be West at 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Through Thursday: Dry and quiet weather is expected from Tuesday right through Thursday. In addition, Tuesday and Wednesday will be very comfortable in terms of temperatures and humidity levels. Tuesday looks sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures near 75 Degrees. Winds will be North at 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday night is expected to be the coolest night since early June across the region. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy with low temperatures between 48 and 53 Degrees. Wednesday looks sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees. Thursday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 80 Degrees. Friday Through Saturday: A frontal system is expected to slowly push its way through the region at the end of this coming week. This front is likely to bring another round of wet weather potentially throughout all of Friday and Saturday. That said, there is uncertainty as to how quick the front will move out of the area. Some weather forecast guidance show the front out of our area by Friday night and Saturday, which would lead to a wet Friday, but a nice day on Saturday. Other weather forecast guidance show the front getting hung up across the region, which would lead to wet weather on both Friday and Saturday. At this point, I think we’re looking at widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms throughout Friday with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees. As for Saturday, I’m leaning towards showers continuing through the morning with the possibility for the showers ending by early afternoon. This would lead to improving weather conditions Saturday afternoon. High temperatures will be near 80 Degrees.

Thunderstorms This Afternoon Into Early This Evening; A Few Of The Storms May Be Strong To Severe

It looks the entire area will see at least a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms right through this afternoon and this evening. The question continues to be which areas have the greatest chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms. As of late this morning, an area of showers is currently pushing east-northeastward from eastern New York State into northern Connecticut and into the lower Pioneer Valley. These showers will push east-northeastward and will affect areas near and south of the Mass Pike until about 1-2 pm. Once this first round of showers exits, we will likely see a lull in the shower and thunderstorm activity during the early and mid-afternoon hours. This will give the atmosphere plenty of time to warm up to 85 to 90 Degrees and for things to become quite unstable. By late this afternoon, I expect to see thunderstorms develop across areas of the region that are near and south of the Mass Pike. Some of these storms could be on the strong to severe side with 50-60 mph wind gusts, dime size hail, torrential downpours with flash flooding and frequent lightning. At the same time this is occurring, we should see a line of thunderstorms, some of which will be on the strong side move from northwest to southeast across the region. It’s expected that these storms will first affect areas from the Berkshires to the Route 2 corridor beginning about 5-6 pm and then push southeastward reaching areas near the Mass Pike by 7-8 pm. This line of thunderstorms will continue moving southeastward and should exit our area by about 9-11 pm. I do think that some of the thunderstorms with that southeast moving line of storms will be on the strong to possibly severe side with 50-60 mph wind gusts, dime to penny size hail, torrential downpours with flash flooding and frequent lightning. In terms of where the greatest chance for strong to severe thunderstorms may set up, based on the latest data, I think that areas from the lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass east-northeastward to about the Worcester Metro and points south from there has a higher chance of seeing a few of the thunderstorms being on the strong to severe side this afternoon and early this evening. Again, any strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing 50-60 mph wind gusts, dime to penny size hail, torrential downpours with flash flooding and frequent lightning. Keep checking back for updates regarding this afternoon and evening’s thunderstorms as I will most certainly be posting updates as needed. In addition, make sure you have multiple ways of receiving severe weather warnings. Finally, it’s not a bad idea to have a good radar app on your smart phone. I highly recommend and frequently use both RadarOmega and RadarScope for looking at radar data.

Very Warm & Very Humid Weather Continues Through Sat; Possible Strong/Severe Storms Sat Afternoon

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: Sunny to partly sunny skies with very warm and very humid conditions are expected throughout the rest of this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 84 to 89 Degree range. Wind will be West at 5 to 10 mph. Tonight: A warm and very humid night is expected across the region under clear to partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be between 70 and 75 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Saturday: A fairly robust cold front will push through the region during Saturday afternoon. This front will set off some thunderstorm activity during the afternoon across much of the area. The question is how severe will the thunderstorms be and which areas of Western and Central Mass have the highest chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms. The high resolution weather forecast guidance is of no help in determining tomorrow’s severe weather risk as they are all over the place. Some guidance show a scenario that shows much of the severe weather affecting Connecticut and Rhode Island and completely missing Western and Central Mass. Other just as reliable guidance point to a scenario that has scattered strong to severe thunderstorms occurring across much of Western and Central Mass during the afternoon. The reason for the uncertainty is due to the uncertainty of the progression and track of thunderstorm complexes that occur this afternoon and tonight across the Midwestern United States and the Ohio Valley. These large thunderstorm complexes are always very difficult to forecast a day out and because of this, my confidence in how the thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon shakes out is very low. Unfortunately, we may not really know how things will progress until almost “game time” tomorrow. That said, My Current Thinking Is That the cold front will press southward into the upper Pioneer Valley and the northern Worcester Hills during the early afternoon hours and should make it to about the Mass Pike by late afternoon Saturday. The environment ahead of the front is expected to be strongly unstable with wind shear values that will support organized thunderstorms to develop within areas that are ahead of the front. I think that we’ll see thunderstorms develop across the region around the midday hour potentially first across Western Mass and the northern Worcester Hills with these storms gradually pushing southward towards the Mass Pike around mid-afternoon. These storms look to exit the region by about the 5-7 pm time frame. Based on my analysis, I think the area of greatest risk of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon will be areas that are located south of the Mass Pike. In fact, much of, if not all of the severe weather may occur across Connecticut, Rhode Island and across the Cape. Any strong to severe thunderstorms across areas that are located south of the Mass Pike will contain 50-70 mph wind gusts, dime size hail, torrential downpours and frequent lightning. For areas near and north of the Mass Pike, which includes a large percentage of Western and Central Mass, while I expect scattered thunderstorms Saturday afternoon which move from northwest to southeast, I think a majority of them should remain just below severe limits, but still may produce wind gusts of 25-45 mph, pea size hail, torrential downpours and frequent lightning. With all of that said, I will be monitoring things closely to determine whether changes to the forecast may be needed or not. Again, Saturday afternoon’s thunderstorm forecast and especially the extent of strong to severe thunderstorms, has a high amount of uncertainty and changes to the forecast are likely. High temperatures Saturday will be between 85 and 90 Degrees. Winds will be West to Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Sunday Through Wednesday: A much cooler and much less humid air mass will infiltrate the region on Sunday and remain in place for a large part of next week. This is, obviously, welcome relief to the hot and very humid air that we’ve endured for the last 6 weeks. I know all members, both two legged and four legged, of our house is looking forward to the cooler and much less humid air. I’m also looking forward to the break in having to forecast heavy rain and thunderstorms every other day! Sunday will be sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees with very comfortable humidity levels. Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday all look sunny to partly sunny with very comfortable humidity levels. High temperatures all three days will be between 75 and 80 Degrees. In fact, Monday night and Tuesday night may see low temperatures of 50 to 55 Degrees, which is going to feel downright chilly as compared to what we’ve seen lately. Late Next Week: It looks like a frontal boundary will push its way into the region for Thursday night and next Friday bringing with it widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms, along with an increase in humidity levels. Thursday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 80 Degrees. Next Friday is expected to feature widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees.