The Late Week Weather Really Needs To Be Watched Closely

For This Afternoon: A big high pressure system will control our weather for this afternoon with lots of sunshine expected. High temperatures this afternoon will be between 25 and 30 Degrees. Tonight: Another clear and cold night is expected across Western and Central Mass. Low temperatures tonight will be between 5 and 10 Degrees. Tuesday: A partly sunny day is expected on Tuesday with high temperatures between 30 and 35 Degrees. Tuesday Night & Wednesday Morning: The weather on later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning still needs to be watched closely for the potential for some spotty areas of freezing drizzle and light freezing rain to occur. A southwesterly wind flow is expected to set up over the region and this could lead to some spotty areas of freezing drizzle and very light freezing rain to develop over the region during the late night hours of Tuesday night and during Wednesday morning. While not every area of Western and Central Mass will see freezing drizzle or light freezing rain (it’ll be very spotty and showery in nature), areas that do will see some very slippery conditions develop. Temperatures on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be in the 20s, but should rise to above freezing by late morning Wednesday. Wednesday Afternoon: Cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday afternoon with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. The Late Week Storm Really Needs To Be Watched Closely: What a complicated and uncertain forecast for the end of this week as an Arctic front pushes down into New England while, at the same, a ton of moisture streams northeastward towards our area. The weather pattern set up for late this week includes an Arctic frontal boundary that is expected to press southward across New England on Wednesday night and Thursday. At the same time this is occurring an Arctic high pressure over southern Canada is also expected to press southward, which will lead to some very cold air to drain southward into New England. How far south this cold air pushes remains in question. Meanwhile, a ton of moisture is expected to stream northeastward along this front and will make it into our area during the day on Thursday and remain over our area right through Friday. The big question is how quickly will the cold air move in and will it combine with that moisture to produce ice and snow over Western and Central Mass. Some of the weather forecast guidance (GFS model) have trended towards this becoming a big snow and ice problem across all of Western and Central Mass on Thursday night and Friday after it rains on Thursday. Other weather forecast guidance (Canadian model and the European model), however, shows a slower push of cold air leading to just ice and snow near the end of Friday after it rains on Thursday, Thursday night and Friday morning. While it's fairly rare to see heavy snow and ice on the backside of a southward moving front, this could be one of those exceptions. With that said, the uncertainty to this forecast is VERY high as it's possible that the weather forecast guidance could be over doing the amount of cold air being pushed in. This means that all options are still on the table. Here Are My Thoughts: Rain is expected all day Thursday and all night Thursday night across all of Western and Central Mass (that's the easy part of this forecast!!). I think that we will see colder air drain southward into Western and Central Mass during Friday morning. This will lead to rain to change to sleet from north to south during Friday morning as temperatures fall into the lower 30s. During Friday afternoon, I think that we may see a changeover from sleet to snow – first north of the Mass Pike early Friday afternoon and then near and south of the Mass Pike by mid to late afternoon Friday. Temperatures during Friday afternoon will fall into the 20s. I'm still not completely convinced yet that this is going to be a significant ice or snow producer. With that said, the trend in the guidance towards colder temperatures during this storm are very concerning and changes to this forecast are very possible. Be aware that even if we don't see any appreciable sleet or snow accumulations, the fall in temperatures during the day on Friday will likely lead to puddles and wet roads from the rain Thursday into Friday morning to freeze up leading to icy conditions, especially during Friday afternoon. I am watching the late week storm extremely closely and will have updates as needed. If the late week storm wasn’t enough winter for you, I'm also watching a possible storm for next Monday that could bring even more snow and ice problems and maybe a follow up storm for late next week that could bring even more snow. Saturday & Sunday: Much colder air moves in for the weekend. It looks like both Saturday and Sunday will be sunny. High temperatures Saturday will be between 20 and 25 Degrees. High temperatures Sunday will be near 30 Degrees.