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Some Light Snow Late Friday Night Into Saturday Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: A mixture of clouds and stars and moonlight is expected tonight. Low temperatures will be between 25 and 30 Degrees. Winds will be Northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Friday: Skies are expected to start out partly sunny during the morning with an increase in clouds expected during the afternoon. High temperatures will be near 45 Degrees. Winds will be West at 5 to 10 mph. Some Light Snow Is Expected Late Friday Night Into Saturday: The weather setup for late Friday night into Saturday has become mildly more interesting as it appears that a low pressure system tracking off of the Mid-Atlantic coast may track closer to our area than what was thought at this time yesterday. This means that it appears that a period of snow now looks likely to occur across the entire area beginning late Friday night. This snow is then expected to continue through at least Saturday morning. I do want to point out that we are going to have to watch this setup extremely closely as the upper level dynamics with this storm are pretty robust and any trends towards a stronger system could mean a more important snowfall late Friday night into Saturday. It’s something that I will be keeping close tabs on and will have updates as needed. For now, I think that we’ll see snow initially overspread Western Mass by midnight Friday night and then begin across Central Mass just after midnight Friday night. It appears that the snow will then continue through Saturday morning before coming to an end by early Saturday afternoon. In terms of snow amounts, for now it looks like no big deal in terms of accumulations with less than one inch expected near and north of the Route 2 corridor. South of there, it appears amounts of 1 to perhaps 2 inches of snow can be expected across the rest of Central Mass. Across Western Mass, current indications are that snow amounts could range from 1 to 2 inches across areas along and east of I-91 and from 2 to 3 inches of snow across areas west of I-91. Low temperatures Friday night will be near 30 Degrees. High temperatures Saturday will be near 35 Degrees. Winds Friday night will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph. Winds Saturday will be Northeast at 10 to 20 mph. A Potential Very Significant Winter Storm Remains Possible Early Next Week: The chances for a potential very significant snowfall across the entire area continues to increase for the early part of next week. This storm currently looks to begin late Monday afternoon or Monday evening and then potentially continue through all day Tuesday and possibly into the day on Wednesday. A word of caution though before I go over the latest data with you – Your weather apps and posts on Facebook and Twitter may be starting to look crazy in terms of snowfall accumulation forecasts. While a very large and potentially crippling winter storm is very much on the table, a lot needs to go “right” for that to occur. The weather setup for early next week is expected to consist of 2 atmospheric disturbances phasing, or merging together, right over the Northeastern United States. At this time, these 2 weather disturbances are still located over the North Pacific Ocean and are expected to push onshore onto the West Coast of the United States late Friday. I think that by Friday evening and certainly by Saturday morning, we should get a really clear focus of what sort of a storm we may be dealing with. At this time though, there are about 3 different ways this storm could unfold for our area: The first is for an intense low pressure system to stall just south of Nantucket and just dump snow on us from late Monday all the way through the day on Wednesday. This scenario would lead to not only snow amounts measured in feet, but also very strong winds, which would lead to blizzard conditions. This is what the European model has been hinting at for at least the last couple of days. The second way this weather setup could unfold is for a storm system to track well south and east of Nantucket, which would lead to snow to occur from Monday night until Tuesday night with perhaps up to 5 to 10 inches of snow accumulation. An impactful storm, yes, but not crippling like the first scenario. This is what the GFS model seems to be showing. The third scenario is for this storm system to bisect Southern New England leading to a messy snow to rain scenario across the region and any significant snow amounts limited to the far northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires. This is what the Canadian model seems to be showing. I think that the GFS model (second scenario) may be too progressive and stringing everything out too quickly. Alternatively, I think that the Canadian model and some forecast runs of the European model may be too tucked in with its forecast track. What we need to watch is how the southern piece of energy interacts with the northern piece of energy. If that northern piece of energy races out ahead of the southern piece of energy, it would lead to a storm blowing up too far east to really impact our area. Alternatively, if that northern piece of energy is slower than the southern piece of energy, it would lead to a strong storm tracking inland across Southern New England. One thing that I can say for sure is that a storm that completely misses us early next week is very unlikely. So now I have to avoid letting the weather geek in me that would love to see a huge snowstorm not overtake the objective scientific analysis that needs to be done. So Here Are My Latest Thoughts On The Potential Winter Storm Early Next Week: I do think that we’ll see snow begin sometime during late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. The snow then looks to continue through all of Monday night and all of Tuesday. Snow then looks to come to an end during Tuesday evening. It goes without saying that I’m watching the storm early next week extremely closely and will continue to send out frequent updates to you in the coming days. I could be in for a lot of very long days tracking and forecasting this storm, which could be, by far, the biggest storm of not only this winter, but also possibly the last couple of years.

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