Snow & Then Mixed Precipitation Is Expected From Tonight Through Saturday

An area of low pressure is forecast to track near the south coast of New England on Saturday morning. This is going to be a challenging and difficult forecast as it remains dubious as to how far north the changeover line from snow to sleet & rain will push into the region. The area that has the greatest uncertainty is near and south of the Mass Pike while areas further north close to the Route 2 corridor seems to have a better chance of seeing mostly all snow with this storm. Even 12 hours away from this storm beginning, the various weather forecast guidance are not in good agreement with the milder guidance showing as little as 1 to 3 inches of snow tonight before the changeover to sleet and rain near and south of the Mass Pike. Alternatively, the slightly colder weather forecast guidance is showing as much as 5 to 10 inches of snow accumulation near and south of the Mass Pike. At this point, I think that the Berkshires and the northern Worcester Hills have the greatest chance of seeing almost all snow with this storm with accumulations of 8 to 10 inches expected. Further south, a mixed bag that starts as heavy snow this evening and then changes to sleet later tonight before changing back to snow during Saturday looks possible as we get near and south of the Mass Pike with snow amounts that range from near 3 inches near the Mass-Connecticut border to 5 to 6 inches as you get into the Worcester Metro. Here Is What I’m Currently Thinking Region By Region: For Areas Near & South Of The Mass Pike: Snow will begin across areas near and south of the Mass Pike during the 9-11 pm time frame this evening. A period of heavy snow with snowfall rates of about 1 inch per hour looks likely from the time the snow begins until about the 2-4 am time frame when the snow changes to sleet. I wanted to mention that some the latest high resolution weather guidance are showing that rounds of very heavy snow with snow rates of up to 2 inches per hour could occur at times between 11 pm and 3 am tonight. Should this occur, it could lead to slightly higher snow totals than what I’m currently forecasting. Snow looks to change to sleet first across the lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass by about 1-2 am and then across other areas near and south of the Mass Pike by about 3-4 am. Sleet then looks to continue right through the very late night hours of Friday night and through sunrise Saturday morning across areas near and south of the Mass Pike. During Saturday morning, it appears that a mixture of sleet and rain is expected across areas near and south of the Mass Pike. A change back to snow is expected by early Saturday afternoon with the snow ending from west to east between about 4 and 6 pm Saturday afternoon. Combined snow and sleet totals for areas near and south of the Mass Pike looks to be between 3 and 5 inches with 2 to 4 inches of snow accumulation expected for the lower Pioneer Valley of Western Mass. For Areas North Of The Mass Pike, But South Of Route 2: Snow will begin across areas north of the Mass Pike during the 9-11 pm time frame this evening. A period of heavy snow with snowfall rates of about 1 inch per hour looks likely from the time the snow begins until about 4 am when the snow changes to sleet. I wanted to mention that some the latest high resolution weather guidance are showing that rounds of very heavy snow with snow rates of up to 2 inches per hour could occur at times between 11 pm and 3 am tonight. Should this occur, it could lead to slightly higher snow totals than what I’m currently forecasting. Snow looks to change to sleet across areas north of the Mass Pike by about 4 am Saturday morning. Sleet then looks to continue right through not only sunrise Saturday morning, but right through all of Saturday morning. Some rain may mix in with the sleet across areas near and south of the I-290 corridor during Saturday morning. A change back to snow is expected by early Saturday afternoon with the snow ending from west to east between about 4 and 6 pm Saturday afternoon. Combined snow and sleet totals for areas north of the Mass Pike look to be from about 5 inches in the Worcester Metro and I-290 corridor to as much as 7 to 8 inches of snow as you head up I-190. For Areas Near & North Of Route 2: Snow will begin across areas near and north of Route 2 by about 10-11 pm this evening. A period of heavy snow with snowfall rates of about 1 inch per hour looks likely from the time the snow begins until about 4-5 am when the snow begins to mix with sleet. I wanted to mention that some the latest high resolution weather guidance are showing that rounds of very heavy snow with snow rates of up to 2 inches per hour could occur at times between 11 pm and 4 am tonight. Should this occur, it could lead to slightly higher snow totals than what I’m currently forecasting. The snow is expected to mix with sleet across areas near and north of Route 2 beginning around 4-5 am Saturday morning. A mixture of snow and sleet then looks to continue through not only sunrise Saturday morning, but through much of Saturday morning. A change back to snow is expected by about midday Saturday with the snow ending from west to east between about 4 and 6 pm Saturday afternoon. Combined snow and sleet totals for areas near and north of Route 2 looks to range between 8 and 10 inches.