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Snow Continues To Look Possible From Sunday Afternoon Through Monday Morning Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight & Saturday: There’s going to be an abundant amount of low-level moisture hanging around throughout tonight and Saturday.

This will lead to plenty of clouds along with periods of drizzle throughout tonight and all day Saturday. I do think that areas in the Worcester Hills may see some freezing drizzle at times late tonight and during Saturday morning leading to some slick spots.

Temperatures tonight will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. High temperatures Saturday will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds tonight will be North at 5 to 10 mph. Winds on Saturday will be North at 5 to 10 mph.

Snow Continues To Look Possible From Sunday Afternoon Through Monday Morning: A challenging and particularly uncertain snowfall forecast is in the cards for Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and Monday morning as a coastal storm system tracks to the south of New England.

The reason why the snowfall forecast is so uncertain is due to marginally cold temperatures across the entire area, especially in the Pioneer Valley. Also, this storm is going to have to create its own cold air meaning if we see a storm with weaker dynamics and forcing than what’s forecast right now, then only the Berkshires and the northern Worcester Hills would only see enough snow to plow with other areas of Western and Central Mass would see a sloppy inch or two of snow at most.

On the other hand, if this storm system is able to tap into stronger dynamics and forcing, it would be able to not only create its own cold air, but also it would be able to pull down sub-freezing air from southern Quebec and northern New England into our area. This would lead to 6 inches or more of wet snow to accumulate across much of, if not all of Western and Central Mass.

Not an easy forecast at all!!

A moisture filled low pressure system is expected to track across the southeastern United States during Saturday and then move off of the Mid-Atlantic coast by Sunday morning. This storm system will then head northeastward tracking to the south of New England during Sunday night into Monday. This is usually an ideal storm track for a January blockbuster snowstorm. This time though, this time there is a lack of a really cold air mass and temperatures will start out well above freezing. This means that precipitation should start out as rain across most areas with any snow limited to the northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires at the start of the storm.

At this time, it appears that there will be strong enough dynamics and forcing available to cause rain to change to snow from north to south during Sunday evening and it should be snowing everywhere by late Sunday night. Snow then continues through Monday morning across all of Western and Central Mass. Snow then comes to an end, first across Western Mass by late Monday morning and then across Central Mass by early Monday afternoon.

Bottom Line Is That the snow accumulation forecast for Sunday afternoon through Monday morning is very uncertain in the lower elevations, especially across the Pioneer Valley. I think that confidence in at least 6 inches of snow accumulation to occur is highest across the Berkshires and the central and northern Worcester Hills.

My first shot at a snowfall forecast is attached to this post:



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