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Significant Snow Accumulations Are Looking Quite Likely On Tuesday Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: A frontal boundary is expected to cross the region early this evening bringing with it some scattered showers and the very outside chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two between about 5 pm and 9 pm.

Once this frontal system pushes to the east by midnight tonight, I expect some breaks in the clouds during the after midnight hours of tonight.

Low temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be West at 8 to 16 mph.

Sunday: A partly sunny day is expected on Sunday with high temperatures near 45 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 15 mph.

Monday: Monday will be the “calm before the storm” type day with lots of sunshine expected and high temperatures near 45 Degrees. Winds will be West at 5 to 10 mph.

Don’t let the nice weather on Sunday and Monday deceive you because the weather on Tuesday is going to be quite stormy and potentially very snowy.

Significant Amounts Of Snow Is Looking Quite Likely On Tuesday: An area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Mid-Atlantic coast late Monday night and then track just to the south of the Southern New England coast during the day on Tuesday. The anticipated track of this storm system looks to be a favorable one if you’re looking for a solid snowstorm across a large part of Western and Central Mass.

That said, the weather forecast guidance are not in total agreement with this. While major models such as the GFS and the European models are pointing towards widespread snow amounts of 8 to 15 inches across all of Western and Central Mass, other model guidance members such as the Canadian and the UKMET models are actually forecasting a near-miss with the entire area seeing no snow at all. This, obviously, makes for a very challenging forecast for sure.

My educated and experienced gut call on this is that it is very likely to snow on Tuesday and it’ll probably come down very hard for several hours. I don’t think that the Canadian or UKMET models are correct in their forecast of no snow at all. What these two models are showing is enough of a jet streak to cause the storm to zip by well south of our area. Instead, I think that we’ll see just enough of a trough to cause this storm to track slow enough and far enough north to lead to a heavy snowfall across much of, if not all of Western and Central Mass.

Here Are My Latest Thoughts: Snow will overspread the entire area between about 4 am and 7 am Tuesday morning.

Once the snow begins, it is expected to quickly become heavy in intensity with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour likely. In fact, snowfall rates of up to 3 inches per hour at times is a possibility across areas of Central Mass that are near and south of I-290 and the Mass Pike and this does include the Worcester Metro.

This heavy snow is likely to occur throughout the morning on Tuesday right through midday Tuesday.

The snow is then anticipated to lighten up in intensity by early afternoon Tuesday with light to occasionally moderate snow expected throughout Tuesday afternoon.

The snow will come to an end late Tuesday afternoon and early Tuesday evening.

Our first snowfall forecast map for this storm is attached to this post.



Travel conditions throughout the morning on Tuesday into early Tuesday afternoon could be extremely difficult due to the heavy to very heavy snowfall rates. Road conditions may improve a little by mid and late afternoon Tuesday as the snow lightens up in intensity.

My recommendation, and it’s a bold one, is to close non-essential businesses and cancel functions that are set for Tuesday. Also, I highly recommend to cancel all schools on Tuesday across the entire area.

Temperatures during Tuesday are expected to remain in the low 30s during much of the day. Temperatures may gradually fall into the upper 20s by late afternoon.

Winds during Tuesday will be North to Northeast at 10 to 20 mph.

I continue to closely monitor the progress of Tuesday’s snowstorm and I will most definitely have many more updates for you as we get into Sunday and Monday.


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