For This Afternoon: Full sunshine will make a return by later this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will fall through the 50s and into the 40s by late afternoon and early evening.
It will be windy this afternoon with west winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 to 45 mph.
Tonight & Thursday: Much colder air will push into the area tonight and remain in place through Thursday.
Skies tonight will be partly cloudy with low temperatures between 20 and 25 Degrees. Winds tonight will be northwest at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 to 40 mph.
Thursday is expected to be a partly sunny day with high temperatures near 35 Degrees. Winds on Thursday will be northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
A Messy Winter Storm Consisting Of Heavy Snow, Sleet & Freezing Rain Is Expected For Late Thursday Night Through Friday: It looks very likely that a winter storm consisting of snow, sleet and freezing rain will affect all of Western and Central Mass beginning late Thursday night and continuing through all day Friday.
An area of low pressure is expected to head northeastward from the Ohio Valley during Thursday night reaching southern New York State by Friday morning. It appears likely that this low pressure system will redevelop near the south coast of New England by midday Friday. This secondary low pressure system is expected to head eastward away from Southern New England by late Friday.
Snow is expected to begin across Western Mass around the 1 am time frame Thursday night and then across Central Mass around 2 am Thursday night.
Once the snow begins, it is likely to quickly become moderate to heavy in intensity within an hour or so of starting. This means that roads will quickly become slippery late Thursday night.
Moderate to heavy snow is expected to continue into Friday morning with snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour making the Friday morning commute a real mess.
The big questions with this storm are when will the changeover line from snow to sleet and freezing rain begin to push northward through the area and how far north will this changeover line make it before it collapses to the southeast.
Some of the latest weather forecast guidance such as the NAM model is forecasting that the changeover line will rapidly push northward from the Mass Pike by 6-7 am Friday morning to the Route 2 corridor by 8 am. This would limit snow amounts to 4 to 7 inches, but lead to significant sleet accumulations across the entire area.
Other weather forecast guidance such as the GFS model, the HRRR model, the HREF model and the Canadian model is forecasting a much slower push northward of the changeover line with it only reaching about the Mass Pike by about 11 am Friday morning. This would lead to snow amounts of 6 to 10 inches near and south of the Mass Pike and snow amounts of 10 to 14 inches north of the Mass Pike.
Interestingly, the European model is even colder and keeps the changeover line from snow to freezing rain and sleet just south of the Massachusetts border and forecasts all of Western and Central Mass to be all snow with widespread 10 to 14 inch snow amounts.
My thinking at this point is that the NAM model looks too fast with the changeover from snow to mixed precipitation. I also think that guidance such as the GFS, HRR, HREF, European and Canadian models may be a bit too cold and probably isn’t warming things up as quick as I think it may happen.
This all means that I think that we may see a change from heavy snow to heavy sleet and freezing rain first occur along and south of the Mass Pike by about the 9-11 am time frame Friday morning. From there, I think it’s possible that the changeover line from snow to freezing rain and sleet may reach as far north as about Route 2 by about 1-2 pm Friday afternoon. Areas north of Route 2 looks to stay as all snow through the entire storm.
All precipitation changes back to snow everywhere across Western and Central Mass by late Friday afternoon.
All snow with this storm system is currently expected to end by early Friday evening.
My Latest Forecast Impact Map In Terms Of Snow, Sleet & Freezing Rain Amounts Is Attached To This Post.
I will continue to keep a very close eye on this late week storm and will have updates for you as needed. This Weekend: Lots of sunshine is expected for Saturday with high temperatures between 30 and 35 Degrees. While most of Sunday looks partly sunny, a cold front is expected to push through the area late in the day bringing with it some late afternoon and evening snow shower activity. High temperatures Sunday will be near 35 Degrees.