First of all - I'M SORRY in advance for this forecast of accumulating snow!! This is the type of April forecast that I don't like to or don't want to write!!
This Afternoon: Quiet weather is expected for this afternoon with sunny skies expected to become partly sunny skies by mid-afternoon. In addition, a late day isolated shower is possible in some areas. Temperatures this afternoon will be between 65 and 70 Degrees.
Tonight: Skies are expected to become cloudy this evening with some scattered shower activity expected well after midnight tonight. Low temperatures tonight will be between 40 and 45 Degrees.
Thursday: An area of low pressure is expected to take shape off of the Mid-Atlantic coast during the day on Thursday. This is going to be a slow progressing system and this means that much of the morning may be dry across Central Mass while it rains across much of Western Mass. Rain is then expected to overspread Central Mass by early to mid-afternoon Thursday.
The warmest temperatures of the day Thursday are expected to occur in the morning with temperatures in the mid 40s expected. Temperatures are then expected to gradually fall into the low 40s during the afternoon.
Accumulating Snow Is Expected For Thursday Night Into Friday Across All Of Western Mass & Much Of Central Mass: That low pressure system is expected to strengthen on Thursday night into Friday as it heads from offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast to Nantucket.
This is going to be a very energetic and very dynamic system that packs a lot of moisture. In addition, the track of the low pressure system is such that it will be able to pull down some cold air leading to the likelihood of accumulating snow across the entire area. With that said, this is still a very, very difficult forecast as the smallest changes in either the storm track, surface temperatures or moisture feed could mean the difference between mostly all rain for many and a widespread significant snowfall across much of the area.
Here Are My Latest Thoughts - A changeover from rain to snow looks to occur first across the Berkshires and across areas along and north of Route 2 during Thursday evening.
By midnight, it is expected to be snowing across much of Western Mass, except the lower Pioneer Valley where it’ll probably still be raining or a rain-snow mix. Across Central Mass, it is likely to be snowing by midnight Thursday night across the Worcester Hills, but raining or a rain-snow mix elsewhere across Central Mass.
Turning to the time period from after midnight Thursday night into Friday morning, snow is expected to be occurring across much of, if not all of Western Mass, including the entire Pioneer Valley. Across Central Mass, the proximity of the low pressure system to the area leads me to think that it may be a rain or rain-snow mix along and south of the Mass Pike and snow north of the Mass Pike.
Depending on how quickly this low pressure system strengthens and how much dynamics are involved, there could be a period of moderate to heavy snow across mostly Western Mass as well as across the northern Worcester Hills from just before midnight Thursday night to about sunrise Friday morning.
The precipitation is expected to lighten up significantly in intensity during Friday afternoon and I expect that it will probably be a rain-snow mix.
I want to emphasize once more that this is a very, very tough forecast in terms of precipitation type and how much snow actually accumulates. One factor that could lead to a few to several inches of wet, heavy snow to accumulate is the fact that it will be night when much of the snow accumulates and there will be no solar insulation involved that would otherwise melt the snow on contact. Also, any periods of moderate to heavy snow would also “override” any melting involved due to the warm ground leading to the snow to accumulate rather quickly.
My Forecast Snow Total Map For Thursday Night Into Friday Can Be Found Below:
I continue to monitor this storm closely and will continue to keep you updated.