There aren’t a whole lot of changes to the forecast, except for some minor refinements to when the rain begins this evening and also to when I’m expecting a “flash freeze” across the region late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. A strong storm system now located over the central Great Lakes region is still expected to move into the eastern Great Lakes region by late tonight and Friday morning. That storm system is still anticipated to move into eastern Ontario and southern Quebec provinces by late Friday. This storm system is going to bring multiple hazardous weather types across the region, including strong winds, heavy rain and then a “flash freeze” at the very end of the storm. Let’s try to detail each hazard individually: Strong Winds: The pressure gradient between the strong low pressure system moving into Ontario and Quebec provinces and a strong high pressure system over Newfoundland and Labrador will lead to strong winds to be a real concern with this storm system. Current data indicates that the strongest winds will occur from about mid-morning Friday until about midnight Friday night. During this time, wind gusts of up to 50 to 60 mph are expected, especially when the Arctic front moves through during the late afternoon and early evening hours of Friday. These strong winds during the day Friday into Friday evening will lead to downed trees, downed power lines and power outages. Heavy Rainfall: Heavy rain is expected to occur throughout tonight and Friday morning before there’s a brief break early Friday afternoon. This will likely be followed by a line of heavy showers that will accompany the front during the mid and late afternoon hours of Friday. It’s possible that the rain will change to a brief period of snow late Friday afternoon and Friday evening before it ends towards midnight Friday night. Total rainfall amounts tonight and Friday will be around 2 inches with local amounts of up to 3 inches possible. The heavy rainfall tonight and Friday will lead to widespread ponding of water on streets, highways and areas that have poor drainage. In addition, there’s also the possibility for minor river and stream flooding. It appears likely that this rainfall will push a majority of the rivers and streams across the region to near flood stage with some seeing minor flooding. Any flooding of rivers and streams may occur this weekend when they reach their crests. A “Flash Freeze” With Very Icy Conditions Expected From Mid To Late Friday Afternoon Through Friday Evening: A rush of Arctic air will push into the area from southwest to northeast leading to an almost immediate 10 to 20 degree fall in temperatures. The biggest uncertainty is when exactly will the Arctic front move through. This is extremely important as we need to know exactly when streets, highways, parking lots and driveways will become icy and hazardous for travel. Some of the high resolution weather forecast guidance shows the rapid fall in temperatures to well below freezing by 3 to 4 pm Friday afternoon. Other high resolution weather forecast guidance delays the rapid temperature fall to well below freezing to about 5 to 6 pm or so Friday. This minor time difference in when the Arctic front moves through is actually extremely important. This is because if we see the “flash freeze” occur around the 3-4 pm time frame, it’s going to lead to a very difficult and hazardous afternoon and evening commute. On the other hand, a 5-6 pm Arctic push would allow most people to get home from work and school safely, but Friday evening travel is still going to be extremely hazardous. Based on all of the data that I’ve looked at, I think that we’ll see the rush of Arctic air push into Western Mass between 3 and 4 pm Friday afternoon leading to “flash freezes” across the region & conditions will be very icy by 4 pm across Western Mass. Across Central Mass, it appears that the push of Arctic air with a rapid fall in temperatures to well below freezing will occur between 4 and 5 pm Friday afternoon. “Flash freezes” and very icy conditions are likely to develop across Central Mass during that 4 to 5 pm time period. One thing that I want to emphasize is that “flash freezes” do not happen very often and because of this forecasting them are very difficult. These sort of flash freeze events only happen once or twice every 5 years or so. That said, my best educated guess right now is that there will be icy streets, highways, parking lots and driveways. The temperature drops with this Arctic front have already been insanely dramatic and many locations over the Central United States have recorded 40 to 50 degree temperature drops in one hour! While the temperature drop across Western and Central Mass will be dramatic, it will not be that dramatic. At this point, I think we’re looking at a 10 to 20 degree temperature drop in about an hour when the Arctic front moves through. One thing that is going to be important in determining how icy it may get is the time difference between the rain ending and the Arctic air arriving. If it’s still raining when the Arctic front arrives, then road surfaces will not have any time at all to dry out and thus they will ice up for sure. On the other hand, if we see the rain end for a while, even up to an hour before the Arctic front arrives, the strong winds may be able to “blow dry” the roads leading to just lingering puddles to freeze up and prevent widespread icy conditions. Unfortunately, current indications are that there may be very little time, if any, between the rain ending and the Arctic air arriving. Because of this, I’m very, very concerned that water on streets, highways, parking lots and driveways will freeze up leading to very icy and very dangerous travel conditions across Western Mass by 3 to 4 pm Friday and across Central Mass by 4-5 pm Friday. These very icy conditions are expected to continue through Friday evening. My blunt and to the point recommendation to you is to be off of the roads, if you can avoid it, by 3 pm Friday across Western Mass and by 4 pm Friday across Central Mass. It’s going to take time for DPW crews to respond and for treatments to take effect and thus icy and dangerous travel conditions are likely for several hours late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. So, Let’s Break It Down Even More: For The Rest Of This Afternoon & Tonight: Rain is expected to rapidly overspread the entire area during the 6 to 7 pm hour and it will be raining everywhere shortly after 8 pm this evening. The rain is then expected to become heavy at times across the entire area by midnight. Heavy rain is then expected after midnight tonight. Temperatures will remain between 35 and 40 Degrees the rest of this afternoon and this evening and then rise to the mid to upper 40s very late tonight. Winds the rest of this afternoon will be East at 10 to 20 mph. Winds tonight will be East at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph before midnight and East to Southeast at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph after midnight. Friday: Heavy rain is expected throughout the morning, which will become more showery in nature during the afternoon. A line of heavy showers is expected to push across Western Mass by mid-afternoon and then across Central Mass during the mid and late afternoon hours. This line of heavy rain will be the Arctic front and will bring with it wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph, the potential for a quick change to snow, a rapid temperature drop of up to 10 to 20 degrees to readings well below freezing and a “flash freeze” leading to very icy and dangerous travel. As I already mentioned, I expect this to occur across Western Mass by 3 to 4 pm Friday and across Central Mass by 4 to 5 pm Friday. To make things even more icy, any snow that falls on ice will lead to even more slippery conditions during late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Any snow looks to come to an end by about midnight Friday night with a dusting of snow expected. It’s also expected to be very windy throughout Friday and Friday night. During the day Friday, South to Southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph are expected. An enhanced period where wind gusts of up to 60 mph is expected when the Arctic front moves through during the mid and late afternoon hours on Friday. On Friday night, Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph are expected during the evening and Southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected after midnight. The strong winds on Friday and Friday night could lead to downed trees, downed power lines and power outages. High temperatures during the day Friday will be near 55 Degrees with temperatures rapidly falling to 25 to 30 Degrees by 4 pm Friday across Western Mass and by 5 pm Friday across Central Mass. Low temperatures Friday night will be between 10 and 15 Degrees. This means that everything will be frozen solid by sunrise Christmas Eve morning. Bottom Line Is That this is NOT your typical December wind and rain storm & this is a storm that means business. I will be continually updating you on the latest regarding this storm, which is going to have many different impacts from heavy rain to strong winds and very icy & dangerous travel conditions. Be safe out there!! Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays everyone!
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For Tonight & Thursday: An area of high pressure will push to the east tonight while a strong low pressure system pushes into the central Great Lakes region by Thursday evening. Partly cloudy skies are expected this evening with skies becoming cloudy after midnight tonight. Low temperatures will be between 20 and 25 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Thursday is expected to be cloudy and I do still think that rain with that storm system will hold off until evening. This means that dry conditions still looks likely all day on Thursday. High temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be East at 5 to 10 mph in the morning and East at 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. A Strong Storm System Will Bring Heavy Rain, Strong Winds On Thursday Night & Friday & Then A “Flash Freeze” Occurring Friday Evening: A strong storm system is expected to track from the eastern Ohio Valley on Thursday evening to western New York State by Friday morning. This storm system is then anticipated to move into Quebec province during Friday afternoon and Friday night. Because this storm system will be tracking to the west of our area, this is going to be a nearly all rain event. The exception may be at the very start of the storm Thursday evening when precipitation may start as a very brief period of snow and sleet, especially across areas north of the Mass Pike and in the Berkshires. The other exception looks to be at the very end of the storm when Arctic air rushes into the region causing the rain to change to a period of snow everywhere late Friday afternoon and Friday evening before it ends. There are three threats with this storm system and they are strong winds, heavy rainfall with street, highway and poor drainage flooding and the possibility of river and stream flooding and a flash freeze at the very end of the storm. Strong Winds: The pressure gradient between the strong low pressure system moving into Quebec province and a strong high pressure system over Newfoundland and Labrador will lead to strong winds to be a real concern with this storm system. It appears that there may be two periods where there’s going to be potentially really strong winds, along with an enhanced threat for downed trees, downed power lines and power outages. The first looks to be from mid to late morning Friday through the early afternoon hours on Friday when south to southeast winds may gust up to 50 mph thanks to a low-level jet moving through the region. The second period of potentially very strong winds looks to be between about mid to late afternoon Friday through Friday evening when the Arctic air rushes into the region. During this time, southwest winds may gust up to 50-60 mph at times, especially when the Arctic air initially moves in late Friday afternoon. Heavy Rainfall With Street, Highway & Poor Drainage Flooding & The Threat For River & Stream Flooding (Especially Along The Connecticut River): Heavy rain is expected to occur throughout Thursday night and Friday with total rainfall amounts of around 2 inches expected with local amounts of up to 3 inches possible. This will lead to significant and widespread ponding of water on streets, highways and areas that have poor drainage. In addition, there’s also the possibility for minor river and stream flooding. In particular, the Connecticut River is of concern to at least see minor amounts of flooding due to the combination of heavy rain and snow melt in Vermont and New Hampshire contributing to the river rising with these river rises moving downstream into Western Mass. A “Flash Freeze” With Very Icy Conditions Expected By Friday Evening: The rush of Arctic air will push into the area from southwest to northeast, first across Western Mass during the late afternoon hours of Friday and then across Central Mass during the early afternoon hours. This will lead to both a rapid drop in temperatures and also the possibility of a brief period of snow across the area during the late afternoon and evening hours of Friday with a dusting of snow possible. This rapid drop in temperatures could lead to a “flash freeze” of everything with very icy conditions possible. Current indications reveal that temperatures will fall below freezing across Western Mass by about 5-6 pm and then across Central Mass around 6 pm or so on Friday. This means that extreme caution is going to be needed if you are out and about after 5-6 pm Friday. Why am I so concerned about how quickly it’s going to become icy? It’s because the temperatures will fall from about 40-45 Degrees at 4 pm to 25-30 Degrees by 6 pm to 20-25 Degrees by 7 pm across Western Mass. Across Central Mass, I’m forecasting that temperatures will fall from about 40-45 Degrees around 4 pm to about 35 Degrees by 6 pm to near 25 Degrees by 7 pm. This almost immediate 10 degree drop in temperature to well below freezing will cause water on streets, highways, parking lots and driveways to freeze almost immediately leading to very icy conditions and thus, this is why it’s called a “flash freeze”. So, Let’s Break It Down A Little More In Terms Of Details: Thursday Night: Rain is expected to overspread Western Mass around the 6-7 pm time frame Thursday evening and then begin across Central Mass by about 7-8 pm Thursday evening. The rain is then expected to become heavy at times across the entire area by midnight. Heavy rain is then expected after midnight on Thursday night across the entire area. Temperatures will rise from the mid to upper 30s during the evening to the mid to upper 40s by Friday morning. Winds on Thursday night will be East to Southeast and increase from 10 to 20 mph during the evening to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph late at night. Friday: Heavy rain is expected throughout the morning, which will become more showery in nature during the afternoon. The heavy rain during Thursday night and Friday is very likely to lead to street, highway and poor drainage flooding. In addition, there’s the possibility for some stream and river flooding across the region. As we get into late Friday afternoon, the rain will change to some snow by about the 5-6 pm time frame. In addition, a rapid drop in temperatures to well below freezing will lead to a “flash freeze” of everything with very icy conditions expected, first across Western Mass by about 5-6 pm and then across Central Mass around 6 pm or so. To make things even more icy, any snow that falls on ice will lead to even more slippery conditions during Friday evening. Any snow looks to come to an end by about midnight Friday night with a dusting of snow expected. It’s also expected to be very windy throughout Friday and Friday night. During the day Friday, South to Southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph are expected. An enhanced period where wind gusts of up to 60 mph looks possible during the mid and late afternoon hours on Friday. On Friday night, Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 to 60 mph are expected during the evening and Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph are expected after midnight. The strong winds on Friday and Friday night could lead to downed trees, downed power lines and power outages. High temperatures during the day Friday will be between 55 and 60 Degrees with temperatures rapidly falling to near 30 Degrees by 6 pm or so Friday. Low temperatures Friday night will be between 10 and 15 Degrees and this means that everything will be frozen solid by sunrise Christmas Eve morning. Christmas Eve & Christmas Day: Christmas Eve is expected to be partly sunny, windy and bitterly cold with high temperatures struggling to make it to between 20 and25 Degrees. Wind chill temperatures will hover between Zero and 10 Degrees all day long. Christmas Day looks sunny to partly sunny, windy and cold with high temperatures near 25 Degrees. Monday & Tuesday: Monday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 30 Degrees. Tuesday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures near 35 Degrees.
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For Tonight & Wednesday: An area of high pressure will control the weather throughout tonight and Wednesday. This means that clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight with low temperatures between 15 and 20 Degrees. Winds will be Northwest at 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday will be a sunny day with high temperatures between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be West at 5 to 10 mph. Thursday: Even though Thursday will be dry across the region, clouds will begin to increase as a strong low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. High temperatures will be between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be East at 5 to 10 mph. A Strong Storm System Will Bring Heavy Rain, Strong Winds On Thursday Night & Friday & Then A “Flash Freeze” Occurring Friday Evening: A strong storm system is expected to track from the eastern Ohio Valley on Thursday evening to western New York State by Friday morning. This storm system is then anticipated to move into Quebec province during Friday afternoon and evening. This storm is expected to bring significant impacts in the way of heavy rain with flooding, strong winds, which could lead to downed trees, power lines with power outages and finally a “flash freeze” at the end of the storm, which looks to lead to very icy conditions Friday evening through the overnight hours of Friday night. Here Are The Latest Details On This Storm System: Thursday Night: Rain is expected to overspread Western Mass early Thursday evening and then begin across Central Mass by about 10 pm or so. The rain is then expected to become moderate to heavy at times across the entire area after midnight Thursday night. Temperatures will rise from the mid to upper 30s during the evening to the mid to upper 40s by Friday morning. Winds on Thursday night will be East to Southeast and increase from 10 to 20 mph during the evening to 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph late at night. Friday: Rain is expected throughout the day on Friday and it will be heavy at times. Rainfall amounts of around 2 inches are expected with this storm. Because of these heavy rainfall amounts, street, highway and poor drainage flooding is expected. In addition, there’s the possibility for some stream and river flooding across the region and this is something that’ll need to be watched very closely. Also, it’s expected to be very windy throughout the day on Friday with Southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph. This could lead to downed trees and power lines with power outages a possibility. It should be noted that a period of wind gusts of up to 50-60 mph is a possibility during the late afternoon and evening hours and this could enhance the threat for downed trees, downed power lines and power outages. High temperatures will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. A “Flash Freeze” Is Expected Friday Evening With Very Icy Conditions Expected: On the backside of this strong storm system, it’s expected that a rush of Arctic air will move into the region Friday evening leading to a rapid drop in temperatures. In addition to this, a brief change to snow is also possible Friday evening with a dusting of snow possible before all precipitation ends by midnight. This rapid drop in temperatures could lead to a “flash freeze” of everything with very icy conditions possible. Current indications reveal that temperatures will fall below freezing across Western Mass by about 5-6 pm and then across Central Mass by about 7 pm. This means that streets, highways, parking lots and driveways may be very icy during Friday evening and throughout the overnight hours of Friday night. This means that extreme caution is going to be needed if you are out and about after 5-7 pm Friday. How fast will the temperatures fall? Well, I’m expecting that across Western Mass temperatures will fall from the low 50s around 4 pm to the low 30s by 6 pm to the low 20s by 8 pm. Across Central Mass, I’m forecasting that temperatures will fall from the upper 40s to low 50s around 5 pm to the mid 30s by 6 pm to the mid 20s by 7 pm and then to the low 20s by 8 pm. Once the temperatures rapidly fall on Friday evening, expect a deep freeze by Saturday morning with low temperatures between 15 and 20 Degrees. Finally, it’s expected to continue to be very windy on Friday night with Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph throughout the night. This means that a continuing threat for downed trees, downed power lines and power outages are expected. Christmas Eve & Christmas Day: Even though it’s not going to look like a Christmas postcard, it sure is going to feel very much like Christmas this weekend. Christmas Eve is expected to be partly sunny, windy and cold with high temperatures struggling to make it to between 25 and 30 Degrees. Christmas Day looks sunny to partly sunny, windy and cold with high temperatures between 25 and 30 Degrees.
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