Midday Wednesday Update On The Potential Winter Storm For Sunday Into Monday

It’s looking increasingly more likely that our upcoming storm for Sunday into Monday is going to be a big snowstorm.

All of the weather forecast guidance and other weather data continue to trend towards a scenario where low pressure will track near the south coast of New England by Sunday night. This is a storm track that’s a lot closer than what was thought even 24 hours ago.

Because of this closer storm track, it means that the chances of a big snowstorm across our area have increased significantly since yesterday. Most of the latest weather forecast guidance, including the GFS, Canadian, UKMET and European models are now pointing towards the very real chance for at least one foot of snow to accumulate.

Here Is My Latest Thinking: At this point, it appears that snow will begin by about midday on Sunday. Once it begins snowing, it is expected to continue through all of Sunday afternoon, all of Sunday night and possibly through all day Monday. The heaviest intensity (worst part of the storm) looks to occur from late Sunday afternoon through all of Sunday night.

At this point, I'm going with snow totals of AT LEAST 8 to 12 inches for this storm. Please note that these forecast snow totals will very likely need to be increased in future forecasts.

A full detailed forecast covering not only Sunday into Monday's potential major winter storm, but also the Arctic cold this weekend & some light snow that can be expected this evening will be posted later this afternoon.

A Blast Of Arctic Air Is Expected This Weekend Across Western & Central Mass; In Addition To This, Snow Is Quite Possible On Sunday Into Monday – How Much Snow Accumulates Remains To Be Determined

For Tonight: An area of high pressure is expected to control the weather throughout tonight.

The combination of clear skies, diminishing winds and fresh snowpack means that temperatures will likely bottom out to between 2 and 7 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 15 mph before midnight and West at 5 to 10 mph after midnight.

Wednesday Through Thursday: Milder temperatures are expected on Wednesday and especially Thursday before the Arctic express invades the region by Friday night and Saturday.

Wednesday looks to start out sunny, however, varying amounts of clouds can be expected during the afternoon. High temperatures will be between 30 and 35 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

A frontal system is expected to push through the area during Wednesday evening. This front will bring a round of scattered snow showers throughout Wednesday evening. These snow showers will have the potential to produce a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow accumulation. Low temperatures Wednesday night will be near 25 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Thursday looks partly sunny with high temperatures around 40 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Friday: An Arctic cold front is expected to push through the region during Friday afternoon and Friday evening. It appears that this front will be a “dry frontal passage” and because of this, little or no snow shower activity is expected with its passage. What this front will do is usher in the coldest air seen so far this season for this weekend.

Skies throughout the day on Friday will be cloudy with high temperatures between 25 and 30 Degrees.

Friday Night: And here comes the Arctic express!! Friday night looks clear and very cold. Low temperatures will be between 5 below zero and 10 below zero. A gusty westerly wind is likely to drive wind chill temperatures down to around minus 25.

Very Cold Temperatures Are Expected This Weekend Thanks To An Arctic Airmass: A significant Arctic outbreak will impact all of Western and Central Mass throughout this weekend. This will lead to not only the coldest temperatures thus far this winter, but also some of the coldest temperatures in the last 2-3 years or so.

High temperatures Saturday will struggle to make it much above 10 Degrees. Wind chill temperatures on Saturday will be in the 10 to 20 below zero range in the morning and around 5 below zero in the afternoon.

Low temperatures Saturday night will be between 5 below zero and 10 below zero.

High temperatures on Sunday will be around 15 Degrees.

Snow Looks Quite Possible From Sunday Into Monday – How Big Of A Storm This Will Be Is Yet To Be Determined: It continues to look quite possible that a coastal storm may track close enough to our area to bring the entire area snow from Sunday into Monday. The big question is how close will this storm track to our area & this is important because it’ll determine how much snow accumulates across the region.

Looking at the weather forecast guidance reveals that models such as the GFS model is showing a suppressed storm track due to the strong Arctic air over us. This would lead to this storm tracking well south of our area leaving us with no snow at all.

Other weather forecast guidance such as the Canadian model and the European model has trended northward with its forecast storm track. Because of this, these models are now forecasting snow to occur from Sunday into Monday. Given the Arctic air mass over us, this would end up being a light and very powdery snow & would be able to add up quick. Because of this, these two models are forecasting upwards of a foot or more of snow accumulation due to the very low water content of the snow.

Here Are My Thoughts: I am not yet buying into the idea of major winter storm here in Western and Central Mass. The reason why is because the big Arctic high pressure system might be strong enough to suppress much of the moisture and snow with this storm just to our south.

Now, any snow that does make it into our area will be very light and fluffy and because of that it’ll have a low water content. This means that it will not take much moisture to produce a decent snowfall across our area.

For now, I’m thinking that we’ll see snow occur across the entire area beginning by about midday Sunday and then continuing throughout all of Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and Monday morning. The snow may end sometime around early Monday afternoon.

My thinking as of right now is for something like a 3 to 6 inch snowfall. Could we trend towards a much bigger snowfall for this storm? Absolutely & it is something that I’m going to be keeping extremely close tabs on in the coming days.

This storm is not only going to impact our area, but it’s going to be a large and sprawling winter storm that brings a full-blown ice storm to areas of the southern United States, including Dallas, Shreveport, Huntsville, Atlanta and Charlotte this weekend. This storm also has the potential to bring heavy amounts of snow to much of the Mid-Atlantic states, including Washington, DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia this weekend. This has the very real potential to be a very high impact winter storm for a large part of the Southern and Southeastern United States as well as across the Mid-Atlantic states. Major disruptions including travel being halted and widespread power outages are expected across these areas this weekend.

Things Turn Much Colder For Tuesday Across Western & Central Mass; I’m Already Closely Watching A Possible Winter Storm For Sunday Along With Very Cold Temperatures Next Weekend

For Tonight: An Arctic cold front will push through the region during this evening bringing with it a round of Arctic air that’ll affect the area during later tonight and Tuesday.

A few scattered snow flurries and snow showers will accompany the front during this evening. Any areas that do see snow flurries or snow showers may receive a quick light dusting of snow.

Once that front moves through, some much colder air will invade the region during the after midnight hours of tonight on a gusty west to northwest wind.

Low temperatures tonight will be between 10 and 15 Degrees. Winds will be West at 15 to 20 mph.

Finally, I wanted to mention that there’s a decent chance that a display of the Aurora Borealis (northern lights) will make an appearance tonight across our area. A severe solar storm is now in progress & because of this, it could produce some decent northern lights displays tonight across all of Southern New England. While there may be some clouds and snow flurries/snow showers to deal with this evening, I do think that there will be quite a few breaks in the clouds & skies will be clear by midnight tonight. I urge you to start taking a look outside once it gets dark this evening. I will post updates if the northern lights do make an appearance tonight.

Tuesday: Tuesday is expected to be partly sunny, cold and windy. High temperatures will be between 20 and 25 Degrees. Winds will be West at 15 to 20 mph.

Clear skies are expected on Tuesday night with low temperatures between 3 and 8 Degrees. Given the fresh snow cover that we have now, I do think some of the normally colder locations will probably drop to Zero to 5 below zero. Winds will be West at 8 to 16 mph.

Wednesday Through Thursday: The temperatures look to temporarily warm up a bit on Wednesday and Thursday before the expected Arctic blast for next weekend.

Wednesday looks partly sunny with high temperatures around 30 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph.

A frontal system is expected to push through the region during Wednesday night. This means that cloudy skies are expected on Wednesday night & there will be snow showers moving through during the evening hours. These snow showers will have the potential to produce a dusting to perhaps an inch of snow accumulation. Low temperatures will be near 25 Degrees.

Thursday looks partly sunny with high temperatures around 40 Degrees.

Friday: An Arctic cold front is expected to push through the region during Friday afternoon and Friday evening. This front will bring with it the possibility of a few snow showers during Friday afternoon. More importantly, this front will usher in a significant Arctic blast that’ll impact the region throughout the weekend.

High temperatures Friday will be around 30 Degrees.

Arctic Air Invades For The Weekend & There’s The Possibility Of A Winter Storm On Sunday: It is looking likely that a significant Arctic outbreak will impact the entire area throughout next weekend. In fact, this blast of Arctic air may be prolonged and last through at least the middle part of next week.

Saturday looks sunny with temperatures struggling to make it much above 10 Degrees.

Saturday night looks clear with low temperatures of minus 5 to minus 10.

Turning to Sunday, there are some signals in the weather data that suggest we may need to really watch a coastal storm system that could get close enough to our area to bring us snow throughout the day on Sunday. That being said, the uncertainty with Sunday’s possible snowfall is quite high.

Weather forecast guidance such as the European model is showing a storm that stays just too far south of our area to give us much snow. The European model does, however, bring a major snowstorm to the Mid-Atlantic states, including Philadelphia and Washington, DC.

Other weather forecast guidance such as the newer European AI model is forecasting a pretty significant snowstorm for all of Western and Central Mass throughout the day on Sunday. It should be noted that the European AI model did very well in forecasting yesterday’s snowfall days in advance. All of the other weather forecast guidance were too far south and east with yesterday’s snowfall & ended up trending towards a snowier forecast near the last minute. Because of this, the forecasts of the European AI model is something that should be taken with some seriousness.

That being said, I do have concerns that the Arctic air that’ll be in place over New England throughout the weekend may be strong enough to suppress any storm system to our south. Should this occur, it would lead to a significant snowstorm over the Mid-Atlantic states and little or no snow here in Western and Central Mass on Sunday.

No matter what occurs, I will be watching the winter storm potential for Sunday extremely closely & will have many more updates for you in the coming days.

Whether it snows or not on Sunday, it will be quite cold with high temperatures of 15 to 20 Degrees.