For Tonight: A warm front is expected to lift across the region tonight leading to milder temperatures as compared to the last few nights. Skies tonight will be cloudy with low temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees. Winds will be South at 10 to 20 mph. Thursday & Thursday Night: A showery day is expected on Thursday as a cold front approaches the region. Skies on Thursday will be cloudy with scattered showers expected, especially during the afternoon. High temperatures will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. That cold front is expected to push through the region during Thursday evening before moving to the east after midnight Thursday night. This means that Thursday night will start out cloudy with a continuation of scattered shower activity. That shower activity will come to an end by midnight with skies becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Low temperatures will be near 40 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Friday: That cold front will continue to push to the east during Friday. This means that skies will be partly sunny with high temperatures between 50 and 55 Degrees. Winds will be Northwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. This Weekend: An area of low pressure is expected to lift northeastward through the eastern Great Lakes region Saturday afternoon before heading into southern Ontario and southern Quebec on Saturday night. While I think a majority of the region will probably see mostly rain Saturday afternoon and Saturday night, it appears the northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires will probably deal with more of a wintry mixture of precipitation. Saturday looks cloudy and initially it appears that a mix of wet snow and sleet will overspread the entire area by early afternoon. This snow and sleet mixture will be fairly brief for areas south of Route 2 and areas east of the Berkshires with precipitation changing to all rain by late afternoon. No snow or sleet accumulation is expected. For areas, including the northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires, sleet looks to continue through the late afternoon hours, however, any accumulation will be limited to grassy surfaces. High temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Turning to Saturday night, it appears that rain will continue across a majority of Western and Central Mass throughout much of the night. The exception looks to be across the far northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires where a mix of snow and sleet will continue. Any accumulation on Saturday night should be less than one inch and that should occur on grassy surfaces. Temperatures will remain between 35 and 40 Degrees. That low pressure system moves away by Sunday morning and because of this any morning clouds will give way to afternoon sunshine. High temperatures will be near 50 Degrees.
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For Tonight: A weak cold front is expected to move across the area tonight. Skies tonight will be cloudy and there may be an isolated shower or two. Low temperatures will be near 35 Degrees. Winds will be West to Southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Saturday: That cold front will push to the east and away from our area during the day on Saturday. This means that skies during Saturday will feature a mixture of sunshine and clouds. High temperatures will be near 50 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 20 mph. Sunday: A partly sunny, windy and much colder day is expected on Sunday. High temperatures will be near 35 Degrees. Winds on Sunday will be West at 20 to 30 mph. Next Week: A quiet weather pattern looks pretty likely for the first half of next week with no notable storms to really watch. Monday looks sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures near 45 Degrees. Tuesday is expected to be sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures between 50 and 55 Degrees. Wednesday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 50 and 55 Degrees. Turning to the later parts of next week, it appears that a frontal system will cross the region during Friday. Thursday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 45 and 50 Degrees. Widespread rain showers look possible during Friday with high temperatures near 50 Degrees.
The winter storm that blasted areas from the northern Worcester Hills to parts of the Worcester Metro is now done and we close the books on that storm.
So why did areas near and south of the Mass Pike see less snow than what I forecast. Very close analysis of the data reveals that a small separate area of low pressure formed over Connecticut during Monday night and Tuesday morning. This was separate from the coastal storm that moved near the Cape. The Connecticut low pressure system set up a bit of a milder flow across areas immediately to its east, which were areas near I-84, I-395 and Route 146. This led to a much longer delay in the change from rain to snow and thus caused much of the precipitation from this storm to be "wasted" as rain while areas just north from Worcester and points north snowed like anything.
Once that low pressure system over Connecticut weakened and dissipated, it allowed the coastal storm to pull in that cold air and allowed it to wrap in moisture into areas that didn't really snow. This led to a burst of snow that added up to 3 to 5 inches or so between about 6 pm and 9 pm this evening. You can actually see that with the map attached to this post. One thing that absolutely stands out is that the line between areas that received relatively minor snow amounts and areas that received a ton of snow matched up with I-84, the Mass Pike and I-290/I-495.
Not an easy forecast at all and lots of frustrating and aggravation on my end trying to forecast it. I'm more than happy that this storm is now done!
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