Midday Tuesday Update On The Upcoming Storm For Tonight

It looks like snow will overspread Western Mass between 2 and 4 pm this afternoon and then overspread Central Mass between 4 and 6 pm today.

Once it starts snowing, it'll come down quite hard for a while leading to an accumulation of snow before the changeover to rain.

At this time, it appears that most areas of Western and Central Mass will probably pick up a quick inch or so of snow accumulation. The exception will be across the northern Worcester Hills, the Route 2 corridor and the Berkshires where 2 to 3 inches of snow looks quite possible.

A changeover from snow to rain looks to occur across areas near and south of the Mass Pike by about 7-8 pm or so this evening. For areas north of the Mass Pike and especially in the northern Worcester Hills, the changeover from snow to rain may not occur until about 9-11 pm this evening.

One thing that does concern me is the possibility for a brief period of freezing rain during the change from snow to rain. The ground is very cold right now due to the combination of the snow pack and the prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures. This means that even though the air temperature might be above freezing, the ground may remain below freezing for an hour or two leading to some icing issues.

This means that some icing is possible from about 7-8 pm to about 10 pm this evening across areas near and south of the Mass Pike and from about 9-11 pm to about midnight-1 am or so across areas north of the Mass Pike.

Once the precipitation changes to all rain, the rain intensity will be quite heavy. This heavy rain is then expected to continue until about dawn Wednesday morning. Also, a thunderstorm or two is also possible during the after midnight hours of tonight. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing 60 mph wind gusts and extremely heavy rainfall.

All rain will come to an end just after sunrise on Wednesday morning.

Total rainfall amounts from this storm looks to average between 2 and 3 inches.

The combination of the heavy rain and substantial amounts of snow melt will lead to significant flooding tonight, especially during the after midnight hours of tonight into the early morning hours of Wednesday. This flooding will include river, creek and stream flooding. Flooding of low-lying and flood prone areas is also likely. Also, flooding is also expected in poor drainage and urban areas.

The other threat tonight will be the potential for strong south to southeast winds, especially during the after midnight hours of tonight.

Winds this evening will be south to southeast at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. During the after midnight hours of tonight, south to southeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph are expected. These strong winds may lead to some downed trees and tree limbs leading to isolated to scattered power outages during the after midnight hours of tonight.

One thing that needs to be watched very closely is the thunderstorm activity as any thunderstorms could pull down some 70 mph winds that will be present at just 1000 to 2000 feet above the ground. This is something to keep very close tabs on, just in case.

Temperatures this evening will be in the low to mid 30s, but will rise substantially into the 45 to 50 Degree range during the after midnight hours of tonight. Temperatures during Wednesday morning will be in the 45 to 50 Degree range, but will fall back to near 40 Degrees by mid to late afternoon Wednesday.

An Extremely Active Weather Pattern Is Expected To Persist Well Into Next Week: It looks like there are at least two more storms that will affect us.

Storm Number 1 is expected during Friday night and Saturday morning. This storm is very similar to this current storm. It appears we’ll have snow to start with Friday evening that’ll become heavy rain late Friday night and Saturday morning. At least 1 to 2 inches of rain looks possible with the Friday night and Saturday morning storm and this rain will only exacerbate the flood issues.

One this storm ends, it looks likely that some pretty cold air will push into the area leading to a freeze up of any standing water. Something to keep in mind for sure.

Storm Number 2 - There is some pretty strong evidence in the data that suggests we may see a winter storm with moderate to heavy amounts of snow around next Tuesday (January 16) and next Wednesday (January 17). This is a storm to definitely keep an eye on if you have plans on either of these days.

Snow Tuesday Evening Which Will Be Closely Followed By Heavy Rain & Strong Southerly Winds Late Tuesday Night & Early Wednesday Morning Is Expected Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: An area of high pressure will move right over the area during tonight leading to clear skies. Low temperatures will be between 15 and 20 Degrees. Winds will be West at 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday: That high pressure system will be in place over the area during the morning before it moves to the east and a strong low pressure system begins to approach the region from the west.

Skies will start out partly sunny, but will quickly become cloudy by mid to late morning. Cloudy skies are then expected during the afternoon. In addition to this, precipitation in the form of snow looks to overspread the entire region around sunset Tuesday.

High temperatures will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Winds will be Southeast at 10 to 20 mph.

Snow Tuesday Evening Which Will Be Closely Followed By Heavy Rain & Strong Southerly Winds Late Tuesday Night & Early Wednesday Morning: A strong low pressure system is expected to push across western and northern New England late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing with it multiple hazards, including accumulating snow to start that changes to heavy rain, river and stream flooding & strong southerly winds.

It is likely to snow for a few hours during Tuesday evening, especially across the northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires. This snow will flip to heavy rain by midnight Tuesday night. Snowfall amounts during Tuesday evening before the snow changes to rain will be a dusting to perhaps an inch across most areas. The exception to this looks to be across the northern Worcester Hills and the Berkshires where 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation seems likely.

Heavy rain and perhaps even a thunderstorm or two is then expected throughout the after midnight hours of Tuesday night. Rain, which will be heavy at times, is then expected to continue through sunrise Wednesday morning before it comes to an end by mid-morning Wednesday.

Total rainfall amounts of between 2 and 3 inches can be expected in about a 6 hour time span. This is extremely concerning given the 8 to 16 inch snow pack that we’ve got out there as the heavy rain combined with quickly melting snow will lead to a substantial flood threat late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams and other low-lying and flood prone locations is very likely. In addition, flooding is also expected in poor drainage and urban areas.

In addition to the heavy rain, we are going to have to keep an eye on the potential for strong south winds during the after midnight hours of Tuesday night. At this point, it looks like south to southeast winds will be 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph during Tuesday evening and then south to southeast winds will be 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph after midnight Tuesday night.

These strong winds may lead to some downed tree limbs and even downed trees leading to isolated to scattered power outages during the after midnight hours of Tuesday night.

One thing that needs to be watched is if there is any thunderstorms, it could pull down some of the really strong winds (60-70 mph wind gusts) that will be present at about 1000 to 2000 feet above the ground. Something to watch out for, just in case.

Temperatures during Tuesday night will rise to 40 to 45 Degrees after midnight with temperatures on Wednesday morning reaching 44 to 49 Degrees.

And Yet Another Rain Storm Is Expected Friday Night: This very active weather pattern is expected to continue right through the end of this week and this coming weekend. Yet another strong storm system will move across western and northern New England leading to another round of heavy rain and strong southerly winds during Friday night.

Rainfall amounts of a possible 1 to 2 more inches could exacerbate the flood issues across the region and it’s something that will need to be watched extremely closely.

Midday Update On The Ongoing Storm

Snow is expected to continue for several more hours across the entire area. Overall, the intensity of the snow will fluctuate between light and moderate throughout this afternoon.

The snow is expected to come to an end first across Western Mass by about 4-5 pm this afternoon and then end across Central Mass by about 6 pm or so today.

Additional snow amounts will range from 1 to 3 more inches across Western Mass to 2 to 4 more inches of snow across Central Mass.

As of the time of this writing, almost 9 inches of snow has accumulated thus far here in Sturbridge.

Beyond this, it continues to look very likely that heavy rain is likely during Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. This heavy rain is going to be falling on top of a rapidly melting snow pack (due to temperatures rising to near 50 Degrees) and because of this, significant flooding is looking likely. This will include flooding of poor drainage areas, basements which are susceptible to flooding and river and stream flooding. In addition, quite a bit in the way of ponding of water on roads and highways is very likely during Tuesday night and Wednesday. Total rainfall amounts still look to average around 2 inches or so.

In addition to the heavy rain, we are going to also have to keep an eye on the potential for strong winds. The winds late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be blowing very hard at just above our heads at around 1,000 feet above the ground. The big unknown right now is how much of these winds will be pulled down to the surface. At this time, I’m thinking that Southeast winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40-45 mph seems most probable. That said, if there is any convection around, it could pull down some of those strong winds leading to wind gusts to reach 50-60 mph. Something to certainly watch.