Widespread Showers & A Few Thunderstorms Can Be Expected On Thursday Across Western & Central Mass

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: A frontal system will be stalled just to the south of the New England coast during the rest of this afternoon. Even though this front is located to our south, it is still close enough so that we can expect some scattered showers at times during the rest of this afternoon.

Temperatures will be around 65 Degrees. Winds will be East to Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.

Tonight: Some scattered showers can be expected this evening before a pretty robust weather disturbance begins to affect the area later tonight. This means that widespread showers will overspread the entire area during the pre-dawn hours of Thursday morning.

Low temperatures will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. Winds will be East at 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday: That robust weather disturbance is expected to push through the region during the day on Thursday. This weather disturbance looks to combine with a humid air mass & some unstable air to produce widespread showers and a few thunderstorms throughout Thursday. Given the humid air mass, heavy downpours will certainly be a threat with any of the heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Additionally, while the air mass is not going to be that unstable, there is the likelihood that there will be some robust amounts of low-level wind shear in place. This means that there is the possibility that a couple of the thunderstorms could be on the strong to even severe side during Thursday afternoon with strong wind gusts the main threat. That said, a very low risk of a spin-up tornado is a possibility given that a warm front will be in place across the region & this front would enhance the low-level spin across the area.

All-in-all, the widespread showers and a few thunderstorms Thursday will likely produce 1 to 2 inches of rainfall across the entire area.

High temperatures will be near 70 Degrees. As I mentioned, it is likely to be humid on Thursday with dew point temperatures in the middle to upper 60s. Winds will be South at 10 to 20 mph.

Thursday Night: The showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue through Thursday evening before they taper off to a few lingering showers during the after midnight hours.

Low temperatures will be near 60 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 7 to 15 mph.

Friday: A few leftover showers are possible during Friday morning before skies gradually become partly sunny during the afternoon.

High temperatures will be near 75 Degrees. Winds will be West at 10 to 15 mph.

This Weekend: Saturday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 75 Degrees.

Sunday looks cloudy as some moisture from an upper level low pressure system over the middle Appalachians tries to push our way. I think any showers from that upper level low should be shunted to the south & because of this, I think Sunday should be dry. High temperatures will be between 70 and 75 Degrees.

We Might Have To Watch To Our South For The Very Slight Possibility Of Tropical Trouble Next Week: It’s not often that I mention tropical systems on here as having a tropical storm or hurricane landfall here in Southern New England is a fairly rare occurrence.

That said, I do want to mention that I am closely monitoring two tropical disturbances that are located near the eastern Caribbean. One or both of these disturbances are expected to develop over the next few days. In addition, they are expected to be very close in distance to each other & because of this, they may end up rotating around each other in what’s called the Fujiwhara effect. This makes the ultimate forecast of these two systems extremely difficult and extremely uncertain.

Why I am I mentioning this and how does this affect Western and Central Mass? Well, some of the weather forecast models are pointing towards one of the disturbances to try to track very close to the East Coast during the early part of next week. At this point, I think that if there is going to be a impact from this system, it’ll more likely occur somewhere in the coastal Carolinas or the Mid-Atlantic States. There looks to be a westerly upper level wind flow over New England during next week & if this actually occurs, it would deflect any tropical system from making it to Southern New England.

That said, I would still keep an eye on what is going on in the tropics over the next few days, just in case. I cannot emphasize enough how uncertain the forecast is. When you get two systems like this in-close to each other, some very strange things can happen.

No matter what happens, I will definitely keep you updated.