top of page

UPDATE On Tuesday's Snowfall

Based on the latest data coming in, I am drastically cutting snow totals across the entire area. Further reductions in the snow totals are possible should this storm system slide further offshore.

I absolutely HATE (and it makes me very grumpy) having to change the forecast like this and I absolutely know all of you don't like having to deal with a significant forecast change like this. That said, let me explain once again why the forecast needs to be changed like this.

Starting yesterday afternoon and continuing through last night, the model guidance began showing a notable push to the south with the expected area of heavy snow. This has led to the possibility of far northern parts of our area to miss out on most of this storm.

That said, the latest model guidance this morning has begun showing a shift back to the north with the forecast area of heavy snow. The question then becomes whether this is real and will this shift to the north continue with this afternoon and tonight’s model guidance forecasts.

The reason for these changes in the model guidance has to do with a couple of important weather factors. The first is the orientation and strength of the upper level trough of low pressure that’s pushing across the southern United States. This upper level trough is not producing the amount of thunderstorm activity that was originally expected and because of this, the trough may not be able to lift as far northeast towards our area as originally thought. This leads to the heaviest precipitation to be guided further south leading to some to possibly miss out on any snow at all.

The second weather factor playing into these changes to the forecast is another upper level trough of low pressure that’s moving through the Great Lakes region. Weather forecast guidance is showing this trough being stronger than what was previously forecast. This causes the low pressure system that’s expected to form near the Mid-Atlantic coast to be pushed further south and also causing a very sharp cutoff on the northern side of the snow shield. This sharp cutoff is likely to cause a drastic reduction in snowfall amounts from the Pioneer Valley up into northernmost Worcester County where some areas within 30 miles of each other may go from several inches of snow to nearly nothing at all.

I want to state that there is a lot of sensitivity in the storm track and any small changes in atmospheric factors such as increased thunderstorm activity over the southeastern United States could lead to more changes in the forecast.

HERE ARE MY LATEST THOUGHTS AS OF 5:30 PM MONDAY: Snow is expected to overspread the entire area between about 5 am and 7 am Tuesday morning.

Steady snow is then expected throughout the day on Tuesday. The intensity of the snow will depend on where you're located. Areas of far southern and southeastern Worcester County may still see periods of moderate to heavy snow from mid-late morning into early afternoon while all of Western Mass and northern Worcester County stays as light snow all day long.

The snow is then expected to come to an end from west to east starting with Western Mass by late afternoon Tuesday and then across Central Mass by very early Tuesday evening.

Our UPDATED snowfall forecast map for this storm is attached to this post.

904 views0 comments

Recent Posts

See All


  • Route 20 Weather Facebook Page
  • LinkedIn
bottom of page