Thunderstorms Possible During Sunday Morning Across Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon: Lots of sunshine can be expected throughout this afternoon with temperatures reaching about 85 Degrees. Winds will be West at 6 to 12 mph.

Tonight & Sunday Morning: I am closely tracking a large complex of thunderstorms that is currently located over the upper Great Lakes region. Where this complex of thunderstorms tracks over the next 24 hours is going to be extremely important in determining what the weather will be like on Sunday morning across our area.

There is still a considerable amount of uncertainty as to where exactly this complex of thunderstorms will track. Some of the weather forecast guidance tracks these thunderstorms across northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and central and northern Maine with no impacts on the weather here in Western and Central Mass. Other weather forecast guidance seems to point towards this thunderstorm complex moving right across our area between about 6-7 am and about 10-11 am Sunday morning bringing heavy downpours, very gusty winds, pea size hail and frequent lightning.

When I analyze the weather data, it seems to me that this complex of thunderstorms should begin diving southeastward by this evening rather than moving due east.

This means that thunderstorms, some of which might be on the strong to severe side, might affect Western and Central Mass beginning between about 6-8 am Sunday morning and lasting until about 9-11 am Sunday morning. If these thunderstorms do occur, they may be very loud with frequent lightning expected. In addition, heavy downpours, wind gusts of up to 45-65 mph and pea size hail is also possible if these thunderstorms do occur.

I will reiterate what I wrote yesterday, This Is Not An Easy Forecast!!! There is a lot of uncertainty as to where exactly these thunderstorms will track once we get into tonight and Sunday morning, but my own analysis seems to indicate that there is some increase in the possibility that we will see thunderstorms across Western and Central Mass during Sunday morning.

This is something that I am keeping a very close eye on and I will have more updates for you as needed.

Low temperatures tonight will be near 65 Degrees. Winds tonight will be Southwest at 8 to 16 mph.

Temperatures during Sunday morning will be in the upper 60s to low 70s rising to near 80 Degrees by midday. Winds on Sunday morning will be West at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 mph.

Hot & Humid Weather Expected Sunday Afternoon: A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected during Sunday afternoon with hot and humid conditions expected. High temperatures will be between 90 and 95 Degrees with heat index readings of between 100 and 105 Degrees. My recommendation to you is that if you have any yard work to do, it would be deal to do it today rather than on Sunday.

One other thing that I am going to be keeping an eye on for Sunday afternoon is for the very low chance of any thunderstorms developing across the region. Right now, it appears that sinking air and a cap on the atmosphere during Sunday afternoon should more than likely lead to no thunderstorms forming at all. That being said, if any thunderstorms are able to break that atmospheric cap, they would develop in an extremely unstable air mass – one that will be very similar to the type of atmospheric conditions you see on the Plains states. This means that if we do see a very isolated thunderstorm form during Sunday afternoon, it would become extremely severe.

More than likely though, Sunday afternoon will end up being dry with no thunderstorms forming.

Winds during Sunday afternoon will be West at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Dangerous Heat & Humidity Is Expected On Monday & Tuesday: Dangerous amounts of heat and humidity are expected on both Monday and Tuesday. That said, Tuesday certainly looks like the much hotter and more humid day. In fact, it looks like record high temperatures will likely be set at many locations on both Monday and Tuesday with some of the hottest June temperatures on record possible, especially on Tuesday.

Monday looks partly sunny, very hot and very humid with high temperatures between 92 and 98 Degrees. Heat index readings of 105 to 110 degrees can be expected leading to dangerous conditions for those of you outdoors & those of you who are sensitive to high amounts of heat and humidity.

Monday night looks clear, very warm and very humid with no relief likely. Low temperatures will be between 70 and 75 Degrees.

Tuesday looks sunny with very dangerous amounts of heat and humidity. High temperatures will be between 95 and 100 Degrees. Heat index readings of 105 to 110 degrees are expected leading to very dangerous conditions for those of you outdoors and those of you who are sensitive to high amounts of heat and humidity.

Wednesday Through Friday: That high pressure system is expected to push southward into the Carolinas as we get into Wednesday and Thursday. As that high pressure moves to the south, it could put our area in a pattern that’s a little more favorable for daily afternoon thunderstorms on both Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 80 and 85 Degrees.

Thursday looks partly sunny with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees.

Friday looks partly sunny with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will be between 75 and 80 Degrees.