For The Rest Of This Afternoon & Tonight: An area of high pressure will be positioned over the area this afternoon and tonight. This means that lots of sunshine is expected this afternoon with temperatures between 50 and 55 Degrees. Winds will become South at 5 to 10 mph. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected for tonight with low temperatures near 35 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 7 to 15 mph. Thursday: That high pressure system is expected to begin moving to the east during Thursday. This will set up an increasing southwesterly wind flow over the area. Sunshine will be filtered through high clouds during Thursday with high temperatures of 60 to 65 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Friday Through Saturday: I am closely tracking and forecasting the progress of Tropical Storm Nicole, which is expected to be a hurricane impact for the east coast of Florida and a tropical storm impact for the rest of the Florida Peninsula later today through Thursday. It is expected that the remnants of Nicole will move into the Northeastern United States during Friday night into Saturday morning. The remnants of this storm will combine with a frontal boundary that will push through the area to produce a round of rainfall, which will be heavy in intensity at times. Latest indications are that the track of Nicole is further west relative to our area as compared to what was anticipated a couple of days ago. This means that the really excessive rainfall amounts are expected to occur across central and western New York State. That said, 1 to 2 inches of rain are still expected across the entire area during Friday afternoon, Friday night and Saturday morning. In addition, the further west track of Nicole will lead to stronger southerly winds than what was previously expected. These windy conditions are expected on Friday night into Saturday. Additionally, the influx of tropical air from the remnants of Nicole will lead to some downright very humid conditions for November from Friday afternoon through Friday night and Saturday morning. Another thing that we’re going to have to keep a close eye on is the possibility for some thunderstorms and a low risk for strong to severe thunderstorms during Friday night and Saturday morning. Western and Central Mass is going to be on the right hand side of this tropical system and because of this, it is a favorable quadrant for severe weather due to some unstable air and a very high amount of wind shear. Because of the high amount of wind shear, we are going to be on the lookout for rotating thunderstorms. Friday is expected to be cloudy and increasingly more humid. Rain will overspread the entire area during the afternoon. High temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Winds will be South at 8 to 16 mph. It’s going to be an active night in terms of weather on Friday night with rain expected and the rain will be heavy at times. In addition, some scattered thunderstorms are expected with the possibility of a couple of the thunderstorms being strong to severe. The heavy downpours on Friday night will lead to street, highway and poor drainage flooding, especially in areas where fallen leaves are clogging storm drains. It will also be windy on Friday night. Low temperatures Friday night will be between 60 and 65 Degrees with some very unusually humid conditions. Winds will be South at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph at times. Active weather in connection to the remnants of Nicole is expected to continue through Saturday morning with improving weather expected during Saturday afternoon. Rain with scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue during Saturday morning with the rain ending by or just before midday Saturday. A couple of the thunderstorms Saturday morning may be on the strong to severe side. Any heavy downpours Saturday morning will lead to street, highway and poor drainage flooding, especially in areas where fallen leaves are clogging storm drains. It will also continue to be windy during Saturday morning with wind gusts of up to 35 to 45 mph expected. Skies are expected to gradually become partly sunny during Saturday afternoon, however, it still looks like it’ll be windy with wind gusts of up to 30 to 40 mph at times. Temperatures on Saturday morning will be between 65 and 70 Degrees with some very humid conditions. Temperatures are then expected to fall to near 60 Degrees during Saturday afternoon with some much less humid air expected to move in. Winds on Saturday morning will be South at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 to 45 mph expected. Winds on Saturday afternoon will be West at 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 to 40 mph expected. As I already mentioned, I am forecasting total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches to occur across the entire area during Friday night and Saturday morning. It goes without saying that I am keeping a very close eye on the weather for Friday through Saturday and will have more updates for you as needed. Sunday & Monday: The combination of that cold front and the remnants of Nicole will usher in a much colder air mass as an area of high pressure builds into the area for Sunday through Monday. In fact, this much colder air mass looks to remain in place through all of next week. Additionally, this could also mean we could see the chance for the first snowflakes of the season Tuesday night or Wednesday morning and then again at the very end of next week. Sunday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 45 and 50 Degrees. Sunday night is expected to be clear with low temperatures between 23 and 28 Degrees. Monday will be sunny to partly sunny with high temperatures near 45 Degrees.
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