Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Continues To Be A Strong Possibility From Late Thursday Afternoon Into Thursday Evening Across Western & Central Mass

This forecast is mostly going to update you on the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms for late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.

For The Rest Of This Afternoon: Skies are expected to remain cloudy throughout the rest of this afternoon & it will continue to be quite humid. In addition to this, scattered showers now moving out of eastern New York State into far western Mass is likely to affect the entire area throughout the remaining parts of this afternoon. Given how humid the air mass is right now, some locally heavy downpours can be expected with the scattered showers.

Temperatures will be between 70 and 75 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 6 to 12 mph.

Tonight: A very humid night is expected across the region under cloudy skies. In addition, areas of fog can be expected, especially during the after midnight hours of tonight.

Low temperatures will be near 65 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.

Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Continues To Be Quite Possible From Late Thursday Afternoon Into Thursday Evening: It continues to look like that late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening will be very, very busy in terms of strong to severe thunderstorm potential and it is something that I am watching extremely closely.

Early morning low clouds and fog will give way to hazy sunshine along with hot and humid conditions from the late morning hours through the afternoon hours. A strong cold front is expected to push into the area by Thursday evening leading to the very real potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Hot & Humid Conditions: Thursday is expected to be one of the hottest days so far this year. In addition, very humid conditions with dew point temperatures of around 70 Degrees will make for some dangerous heat index readings.

All indications seem to point towards afternoon high temperatures reaching 90 to 95 Degrees across the entire area. These hot temperatures combined with the very humid conditions will lead to temperatures feeling like it is around 100 Degrees or so.

If you have to be outdoors tomorrow, I highly encourage you to take frequent breaks in either shaded or air conditioned areas. Also, make sure you check on anyone you know that are sensitive to heat.

The Strong To Severe Thunderstorm Threat For Late Thursday Afternoon & Thursday Evening: The hot and very humid conditions will produce a very unstable environment and an environment that’s highly favorable for severe thunderstorms. The trigger for these strong to severe thunderstorms look to be a strong cold front which will sweep through the area during Thursday evening.

The big question then becomes when will the thunderstorms move through the area. The weather forecast guidance are in disagreement on the exact timing. Some of the weather forecast guidance show these thunderstorms moving through right when the peak heat and humidity of the day occurs. If this occurs, it would be bad news in terms of the severity of the storms – basically, the hotter and more humid it is, the more severe the thunderstorms would be. Other weather forecast guidance are delaying the storms and show them moving through just after sunset Thursday evening. If this happens, the thunderstorms would be losing their punch as they pushed through as the peak heat of the day would be waning.

One other thing to keep an eye on is the potential for some thunderstorms to fire along a trough of low pressure way out ahead of the main front. This trough is expected to move through during the afternoon. It should be noted that any thunderstorms that develop along this trough would quickly become severe & be an issue.

A couple of notes about the weather forecast guidance. In past strong to severe thunderstorm events this year, they have consistently under forecast the severity and the coverage of thunderstorms. I do think that we are seeing a similar scenario in the weather forecast guidance with Thursday afternoon and evening’s storms.

My Thinking Is That there could be two rounds of thunderstorms during Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.

The first round of thunderstorms look to occur between about 3-4 pm and 6-7 pm as a few severe thunderstorms develop and move across the entire area. Given that this first round of thunderstorms will be somewhat isolated in coverage, they could very well be supercell thunderstorms. Because of this, this first round of storms could be quite potent and be capable of producing wind gusts of up to 60-70 mph, torrential downpours and frequent lightning. Additionally, there is the possibility for an isolated tornado or two due to some low-level wind shear being present.

The second round of thunderstorms, connected to the strong cold front, is expected to come in the form of a squall line. The squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms is currently anticipated to affect the region between 8 pm and 11 pm. These storms will be capable of producing wind gusts of up to 50-65 mph, torrential downpours and frequent lightning.

I strongly urge you to keep updated on the latest regarding the severe thunderstorm potential for later Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening. Keep checking back for the latest as needless to say, I will be watching this extremely closely and I will have additional updates for you as needed.