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Some Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Possible Mid To Late Afternoon Tuesday Into Tuesday Night

We will begin to turn up the humidity levels Tonight under clear to partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be between 60 and 65 Degrees. Winds will be southwest at 8 to 16 mph.

A very warm and humid day is expected on Tuesday under generally partly sunny skies. High temperatures will be between 85 and 90 Degrees. Winds will be southwest at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

I am very closely watching a cold front that is expected to push through the region during the later afternoon and evening hours. While some strong to severe thunderstorms are likely, the coverage and intensity of the storms are in question.

On one hand, some of the ingredients for severe weather are actually quite favorable. First, there is expected to be some strong mid-level winds expected and this will help to support thunderstorm growth and the formation of a squall line. Second is that the atmosphere is likely to be quite unstable during the afternoon and this will lead to thunderstorms to easily grow.

On the other hand, there are some ingredients that point to the possibility of very little in the way of strong/severe thunderstorm development. This includes a warm layer at the mid-levels of the atmosphere, which could "cap" the atmosphere and make it hard for thunderstorms to develop.

Here Are My Thoughts - I don't think that we're looking at a widespread or significant severe weather event across the region. Instead, I foresee some isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms within a broken line of thunderstorms that move through.

Current timing on the line of thunderstorms looks to be for the line to push through Western Mass between about 3 pm and 6 pm or so and then through Central Mass between about 4 pm and 8 pm or so.

Any strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 50-70 mph, hail, torrential downpours and frequent lightning. Additionally, there's the possibility that there could be some low-level wind shear around and this could lead to a very isolated tornado threat.

I want to emphasize that this likely WILL NOT be a widespread or significant severe weather event. Instead, this looks to be a isolated to scattered severe weather event.

Nevertheless, I will be watching things closely and will have updates as needed.

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