Some Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Possible Between 3-4 pm This Afternoon & 8 pm This Evening: I continue to keep an eye on the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms for late this afternoon into this evening across the area.
A cold front is expected to push through the region late this afternoon and this evening. While it looks likely that a few thunderstorms are possible with the front, the coverage and intensity of the storms may be capped by a warm temperature layer in the mid levels of the atmosphere.
With that said, some other ingredients for severe thunderstorms continue to be quite favorable. This includes the presence of strong mid-level winds, which will help to support thunderstorm growth and the formation of a squall line. Additionally, the atmosphere is expected to be quite unstable this afternoon as temperatures peak out between 85 and 90 Degrees along with some very humid conditions.
Here Are My Latest Thoughts: I still don’t think that we’re looking at a widespread or significant severe weather event across the area. Instead, I think that we may see a couple to a few strong to severe thunderstorms that are embedded within a broken line of thunderstorms that move through the area.
At this point, it appears that a line of thunderstorms will probably first move through Western Mass from northwest to southeast between about 3-4 pm and about 7 pm or so.
This line of thunderstorms also looks to push through Central Mass from northwest to southeast between about 5 pm and about 8-9 pm or so.
Any strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts of 50-70 mph, hail, torrential downpours and frequent lightning. Additionally, there's the possibility that there could be some low-level wind shear around and this could lead to a very isolated tornado threat.
I want to emphasize once more that this DOES NOT like it’ll be a widespread or significant severe weather event. Instead, this looks to be an isolated to scattered severe weather event. Nevertheless, I will be watching things closely and will additional updates as needed.