For Tonight: A few hit or miss showers can be expected early this evening before widespread showers and thunderstorms begin to overspread the entire area starting about 10-11 pm or so.
The widespread showers and thunderstorms are then expected to continue through the rest of the night tonight after they begin around 10-11 pm. The thunderstorm coverage during the overnight hours of tonight looks to be very isolated across areas near and north of the Mass Pike and more scattered in nature across areas south of the Mass Pike.
Additionally, the shower and thunderstorm activity during the overnight hours of tonight will likely produce locally heavy downpours especially in areas that do see thunderstorms.
Rainfall amounts during the overnight hours of tonight look to average about one inch or so.
Low temperatures tonight will be between 55 and 60 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 8 to 16 mph.
Wednesday: Showers and some isolated thunderstorms should continue through sunrise Wednesday morning before the shower activity diminishes in coverage by mid-morning.
By afternoon, some partly sunny skies are possible across areas north of the Mass Pike while areas near and south of the Mass Pike stay generally cloudy.
High temperatures will be between 65 and 70 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 7 to 14 mph.
Wednesday Night & Thursday: An area of high pressure will temporarily control our weather during Wednesday night into Thursday.
Wednesday night looks partly cloudy with low temperatures near 55 Degrees. Winds will be Northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Thursday is expected to start out partly sunny, but the forecast becomes more uncertain during the afternoon and evening. There are signals from the weather data that suggest moisture from both a frontal system and the remnants of Debby will push northward towards out area during the afternoon. For now, I think that we’ll probably have skies that will become cloudy, but there is the possibility of rain beginning towards late afternoon. High temperatures Thursday will be between 70 and 75 Degrees.
The Remnants Of Debby Will Bring Heavy Rain Starting On Thursday Night & Continuing Until Sometime On Saturday: Heavy rain with the risk for both flash flooding and river flooding will be a threat starting on Thursday night and continuing through Friday, Friday night and into at least part of Saturday.
The remnants of Debby are expected to track north and then northeastward from near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina Thursday morning to across the Mid-Atlantic states as we get into Friday and then will bisect New England Friday night into Saturday morning.
Moisture and energy from Debby will combine with the forcing from a northward moving frontal boundary to produce a prolonged rain event across the entire area.
As I already mentioned, rain looks to begin during late Thursday afternoon or Thursday evening and at first the rain will probably be light in intensity throughout Thursday night.
The rain will pick up in intensity during Friday with heavy rain at times expected throughout Friday, Friday night and Saturday morning. Rain then should gradually come to an end during Saturday afternoon. That said, the weather forecast guidance are in disagreement on when exactly the rain ends. Some guidance point to the rain ending by midday Saturday while other guidance keep the rain going well into Sunday.
Also the exact track of the remnants of Debby are not set in stone and because of this, any shifts west or east in the forecast track will have very large implications on where exactly the heaviest rain amounts occur. Latest guidance has shifted the heaviest amounts of rain westward into central and eastern New York State and across parts of Vermont and New Hampshire. We are going to have to closely monitor whether the heaviest amounts of rain shift back to the east into our area or remain just outside of our area.
That being said, I’m still expecting rain totals from Thursday night to Saturday afternoon to average between 3 and 4 inches across the entire area.
Another thing that we will need to keep an eye on is the possibility of severe weather during late Friday night into the first half of Saturday as the remnants of Debby passes to our west and north putting us on the eastern side of it. The air mass on Friday night into Saturday especially will be very tropical with decent amounts of low-level spin in the atmosphere. At this point, I think that the overall risk for severe weather will be low with perhaps some strong wind gusts and maybe a very isolated spin-up short-lived tornado or two. It’s something to watch, just in case.
Sunday Through Tuesday: I have hopes that we’ll be able to salvage the second half of this coming weekend if we can get the remnants of Debby out of here.
For now, I’m going with a mixture of sunshine and clouds on Sunday with high temperatures between 75 and 80 Degrees.
Partly sunny skies are also expected for Monday and next Tuesday along with some quite comfortable humidity levels. High temperatures Monday will be near 75 Degrees. High temperatures next Tuesday will be between 75 and 80 Degrees.
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