Scattered Thunderstorms Very Late This Afternoon Through This Evening Across Western & Central Mass

A warm front will be located to our north this afternoon and this will lead to a warmer and much more humid air mass compared to yesterday. Temperatures this afternoon will be around 85 Degrees with dew point temperatures between the mid 60s and low 70s expected. A surface trough of low pressure will make its way eastward from central and eastern New York State reaching our area late this afternoon and this evening. The forcing and energy from the trough will combine with the warm and very humid air to set off some scattered thunderstorms that should move first into far western Mass and northern parts of Mass (near and north of Route 2) around the 5 to 7 pm time frame. From there, these scattered thunderstorms are expected to gradually move southeastward and potentially reach areas around the Western Mass part of the Mass Pike around the 8-9 pm time frame with scattered storms remaining near the Central Mass part of Route 2 during the 8-9 pm time frame. Beyond this, scattered thunderstorms are forecast to reach the Central Mass part of the Mass Pike during the 9-11 pm time frame and then move out of our area by about midnight or so. As for the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms very late this afternoon and this evening – I think that a few strong thunderstorms and a couple of severe thunderstorms are possible with any of these storms capable of producing 45 to 65 mph wind gusts, frequent lightning and torrential downpours that could lead to localized urban, street and poor drainage flooding. The area that looks to be most at risk from any strong to severe thunderstorms will be across Western Mass and near and north of Route 2 in Central Mass. It’s possible that areas closer to the Mass Pike in Central Mass may be on the weakening side of any scattered thunderstorms this evening due to loss of heating of the day. Either way, I’ll be monitoring any thunderstorms that do develop late this afternoon and this evening and will have updates should they become strong to severe.