For This Afternoon: Sunny to partly sunny skies with hot and humid conditions are expected for this afternoon. Temperatures will be between 90 and 95 Degrees with dew point temperatures between 65 and 70 Degrees leading to heat index readings of 95 to 100 Degrees. Winds will be west at 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: A warm and humid night is expected under partly cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be between 70 and 75 Degrees. Winds will be Southwest at about 5 mph.
Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Are Still Possible Late Thursday Afternoon & Thursday Evening: It’s going to be another hot and humid day on Thursday. High temperatures Thursday will be near 90 Degrees with dew point temperatures between 70 and 75 Degrees leading to heat index readings of near 100 Degrees during the afternoon.
Now, to try to answer the question whether we will see strong to severe thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening – A frontal boundary is expected to push eastward through the region late in the day. At the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere, it appears that a piece of atmosphere energy will rotate northeastward towards southern Quebec province. This is important because it could cause the bulk of the energy needed for robust thunderstorm activity to be concentrated across Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.
That said, the atmosphere is still expected to be fairly unstable due to the hot and humid air mass and there could be some strong enough mid-level winds around to support at least some strong to severe weather across the area late in the afternoon and during the evening.
Here Are My Thoughts: Based on the latest data, it appears that areas north of the Mass Pike and also near and west of I-91 may have the greatest risk for strong to severe thunderstorms. Areas near and south of the Mass Pike may end up being a bit too removed from the best upper level energy to really support severe weather.
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern New York State from midday into the early afternoon hours and then spread into Western Mass by about the 3 to 4 pm time frame. Beyond this, it’s possible that these strong to severe thunderstorms may lift a little to the northeast and head across areas of Central Mass that are north of the Mass Pike starting around the 5 to 6 pm time frame.
The strong to severe thunderstorm threat is expected to continue into the evening before ending around the 10 pm time frame.
The main threats with any strong to severe thunderstorms will be wind gusts of up to 50 to 70 mph, hail and a tornado threat. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours are also likely with any strong to severe thunderstorms.
Those of you that may be traveling north to Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine to spend the weekend, be aware that there’s likely to be a legitimate severe thunderstorm threat throughout Thursday afternoon. These storms will have the potential to produce wind gusts of up to 75 mph, hail and a tornado threat.
I continue to monitor the severe weather threat extremely closely and will have more updates as needed.
Friday & Saturday: Hot and humid weather is expected to continue right through this weekend with no relief anticipated until about early next week. Friday looks sunny to partly sunny. There’s the possibility for a thunderstorm or two during the late afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will be between 90 and 95 Degrees with dew point temperatures near 65 Degrees. This will lead to heat index readings of 95 to 100 Degrees. Saturday looks potentially even hotter under sunny to partly sunny skies. High temperatures will be near 95 Degrees with dew point temperatures between 65 and 70 Degrees leading to heat index readings of around 100 Degrees. Sunday: Partly sunny skies with continued hot and humid weather expected. A frontal boundary is expected to push into the area later in the day bringing with it the potential for thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to severe. This is something that I will be monitoring closely and refine the details of the thunderstorm forecast over the next few days. High temperatures Sunday will be around 95 Degrees. In fact, some parts of the area may approach 100 Degrees Sunday afternoon. It will also be quite humid with dew point temperatures between 70 and 75 Degrees leading to heat index readings of between 100 and 110 Degrees.