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On & Off Showers Tonight; Strong To Severe Thunderstorms Possible Sunday Afternoon Across Western & Central Mass

For Tonight: Fairly widespread showers can be expected for the next several hours before there is a break in the shower activity for a while during the after midnight hours.

Another round of scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two is possible after about 4 am Sunday morning.

It will get quite humid tonight with temperatures remaining in the 65 to 70 Degree range. Winds will be South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

Sunday: Any leftover showers should come to an end just after sunrise Sunday morning. We will then be left with a mixture of sunshine and clouds throughout the morning and it will be oppressively humid.

During the afternoon, expect very warm and oppressively humid conditions along with a mixture of sunshine and clouds. Temperatures on Sunday will top off at 84 to 89 Degrees.

Our big weather concern during Sunday afternoon is going to be the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms as a strong cold front pushes in from the west. The air mass is expected to be moderately unstable thanks to the heat and humidity and there will be strong wind shear present.

Current indications are that a line of thunderstorms some of which will probably be strong to severe will push into northwestern Mass around the 3-4 pm time frame. The storms are then anticipated to push southeastward reaching a line from the Springfield Metro northeastward to the northern Worcester Hills by about 5-6 pm. These storms are then forecast to continue pushing southeastward reaching areas from the Worcester Metro west-southwestward to the I-84 corridor by about 6-7 pm and move through the I-395 corridor and the Route 146 corridor around the 7-8 pm. This line of storms is then expected to push to the southeast out of our area by after 8 pm Sunday.

Given the favorable atmospheric conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms, I do think that at least a few of the thunderstorms will produce 50-60 mph wind gusts. Heavy downpours with localized flash flooding will also be a threat with this line of thunderstorms.

As for the tornado and hail threat – Right now, both the hail and tornado threat still looks minimal, but it is not a zero threat either. What concerns me is that there will be strong wind shear and it’s possible that a tornado or two could occur and a really severe storm could produce golfball size hail. It’s something to keep an eye on, but it’s nothing to be overly concerned or worried about at this time.

While a more widespread severe weather event is not currently anticipated, it is something that I will be keeping an eye on, especially if the atmosphere becomes more unstable than what is currently forecast.

Monday: A cooler and less humid day is expected on Monday under partly sunny skies. It’s possible that a few showers could occur during the afternoon, mainly across Central Mass.

High temperatures will be between 74 and 78 Degrees. Winds will be North at 10 to 20 mph.

Tuesday & Wednesday: An area of high pressure will control the weather throughout Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday looks like a really nice day with lots of sunshine and very comfortable humidity levels. High temperatures will be between 80 and 85 Degrees.

Wednesday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 80 and 85 Degrees.

Independence Day: The Fourth of July looks cloudy, warm and quite humid. A frontal boundary pushing in from the northwest could produce some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening hours.

High temperatures will be around 85 Degrees.

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