Latest Update On How The Remnants Of Debby Will Affect Our Weather Tonight Through Friday & Friday Night: It’s going to be an active 36 hours or so of weather across the region as the remnants of Debby push through our area. The remnant low pressure system that was Debby is expected to move through central and northeastern New York State on Friday night before quickly exiting into eastern Canada on Saturday.
Tonight: Some of the moisture way out ahead of Debby will push northward into our area during tonight.
I expect the on and off showers to continue throughout tonight across the area and the humidity levels will gradually be on the increase.
Low temperatures tonight will be between 60 and 65 Degrees.
Friday & Friday Night: A warm front will lift northward across the region during Friday which will pull some very tropical air northward into the area. This means that it’s going to be very humid during Friday and Friday night. The remnants of Debby will then track to our west during Friday night, but the storm will still be close enough to bring rain and the threat of severe weather to the area.
Heavy Rain Forecast: This is still the “good news” part of the forecast as the track of the low pressure system that was once Debby will be far enough west to prevent our area to see really heavy amounts of rain.
Still though, I expect two rounds of showers and thunderstorms to occur.
The first round of showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur during Friday morning from before dawn right through mid to late morning. Heavy downpours will definitely be a threat with the heavier showers and any thunderstorms during the morning.
A break in the shower and thunderstorm activity for a few hours during the early and possibly mid-afternoon hours.
A second round of much heavier showers and thunderstorms are then expected to overspread the area between about 4 pm and 6 pm Friday afternoon. The shower and thunderstorm activity will probably start with scattered activity during the late afternoon hours and then become quite widespread during the evening. Widespread showers and thunderstorms then persist for all of Friday night before they come to an end just after sunrise Saturday morning.
Total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches look likely with localized rain totals of 3-4 inches possible in areas that see prolonged downpours where localized street and highway flooding could occur.
Severe Weather: Now for the “bad news”. The environment is expected to become quite favorable for short-lived tornadoes during Friday afternoon and Friday night as the remnants of Debby pass to the west of our area. At the time of this writing, there are several favorable parameters showing up in the data for severe weather across the entire area. First is that there is expected to be sufficient amounts of unstable air around once that warm front passes through the area and puts us into a warm and very humid air mass. The second favorable parameter is that the low-level wind shear is expected to be very favorable to produce rotating thunderstorms during Friday afternoon and Friday night. The third favorable parameter is that the convective cloud bases are expected to be very low and this will allow for moisture and spin to combine much easier.
I think the greatest potential for severe weather with isolated short-lived tornadoes will be connected with the second round of showers and thunderstorms and looks to occur from about 4-6 pm Friday afternoon until about midnight-2 am Friday night. A couple of items to note about this severe weather potential – The first is that in a tropical air mass like this, we can have spin-up tornadoes occur without any lightning occurring at the time. The second item of note is that the tornado circulations in these types of setups can be very shallow and do not last very long and detecting them on radar can be quite difficult.
Temperatures & Winds On Friday & Friday Night: High temperatures Friday will be near 80 Degrees with very humid conditions. Low temperatures Friday night will be between 70 and 75 Degrees with very humid conditions.
Winds Friday will be East to Southeast and will increase to 10 to 20 mph by afternoon. Winds Friday night will be South to Southeast at 10 to 20 mph with occasional gusts to 30-40 mph.
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