Snow is now beginning across Western parts of Mass and it has just begun spitting snow here in Sturbridge. It is expected to be snowing everywhere across the area by about 4 pm or so.
The snow is then expected to continue through the late afternoon hours and through all of this evening. The snow will very likely continue through the after midnight hours of tonight before it begins to change to sleet and then freezing rain very late tonight. It should be noted that the snow will be moderate to possibly heavy at times between about 8-9 pm and about 1-2 am. Snowfall rates of up to one half to three quarters of an inch per hour can be expected during this time period.
As we get into the after midnight hours of tonight, a nose of above freezing air at about 5,000 feet above ground level will begin pushing into the area causing the snow to change to sleet and then freezing rain from south to north very late tonight through the hours around sunrise on Sunday morning.
At this point, it appears that the snow will change to sleet and freezing rain from south to north across the entire area between about 4 am and 7 am Sunday morning.
Forecast Snow Amounts From Late This Afternoon Through Tonight: You will find my latest forecast snow amounts with the map attached to this post. Generally, I’m thinking snow totals will average between 3 and 6 inches except for up to 7 to possibly 8 inches of snow accumulation across the northern Worcester Hills, the upper Pioneer Valley and across the Berkshires.
Sleet & Then Freezing Rain Expected Throughout The Day On Sunday That Lasts Into Early Sunday Evening: A sleet storm is expected for several hours on Sunday morning as the precipitation transitions from all snow to eventually all freezing rain.
This sleet storm is expected across areas near and south of the Mass from about 4 am to about 8 am Sunday morning when it will change to freezing rain. Across areas north of the Mass Pike, sleet is expected from about 6 am until about 10 am when it will change to freezing rain. Across far northern parts of Worcester County, the sleet may continue throughout all of Sunday morning and probably wont change to freezing rain until early afternoon.
The sleet and then freezing rain is expected to lead to very treacherous travel conditions across the entire area throughout all of Sunday morning.
There remains quite a few questions as to how quickly the freezing rain will change to rain and unfortunately, some of these questions may not be answered until it actually happens.
The latest high resolution weather forecast guidance are still in disagreement on how quickly the temperatures will rise to above freezing. The issue I have with this is that the model guidance tends to warm up temperatures much quicker than they actually occur. This is a known bias in the model guidance & this meteorologist has to try to factor in the model bias into a “realistic weather forecast”. This is where your weather apps on your devices will often fail badly & when it’s best to use an actual meteorologist for a forecast (I absolutely detest weather apps from AccuWeather and the Weather Channel for so many reasons).
At this point, I think the area that has the greatest chance of changing from freezing rain to just rain as early as midday will be across the lower Pioneer Valley, including the Springfield Metro, southeastern Worcester County, including the Route 146 corridor & far eastern parts of Worcester County, including the I-495 corridor.
Across other areas of southern and central Worcester County, including the I-84 corridor, the I-395 corridor, I-290 and the Worcester Metro, freezing rain may change to rain as soon as mid-afternoon Sunday.
Now across the middle and upper Pioneer Valley, the I-190 corridor, the Route 2 corridor and all of the towns in the Worcester Hills west of I-190, the precipitation may stay as freezing rain throughout all of Sunday afternoon into early Sunday evening. It is this area that has the highest chance of seeing downed tree limbs and power lines from the weight of the ice on trees and power lines. Still though, this looks to be about a moderate icing event in this area with isolated to perhaps scattered power outages anticipated.
Forecast Ice Amounts During Sunday Into Early Sunday Evening:
Travel conditions throughout late this afternoon, all of tonight, all of Sunday and a large part of Sunday night is likely to be quite hazardous due to the combination of first snow, then sleet and finally freezing rain and some rain. If you are able to, I urge you to stay off of the roads from late this afternoon through tonight, Sunday and Sunday evening.
All precipitation is expected to come to an end between 8 pm and 11 pm Sunday evening.
Look for many more updates on this storm as it occurs.
Very Windy Conditions Expected Sunday Night Through Monday: A period of very windy conditions is expected to develop during Sunday evening and continue through the rest of Sunday night and all day on Monday. This means that any tree limbs and power lines that are weighted down by the ice will be very susceptible to being snapped leading to power outage issues throughout Sunday night and Monday.
How windy is it going to be? West to Northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph are expected throughout all of Sunday night and all of Monday.
These winds will decrease a little on Monday night and Tuesday, but will still be rather strong. I expect West to Northwest winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph on Monday night and West to Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph on Tuesday.
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