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Humid Weather Returns For Thu & Fri; Month Of August Weather Outlook For Western & Central Mass

For This Afternoon: Sunshine will be filtered through high clouds this afternoon. Additionally, some scattered cumulus clouds will dot the sky at times. Temperatures will be near 85 Degrees with comfortable humidity levels (Dew point temperatures in the 50s). Winds will be West at 5 to 10 mph. Tonight: A southwesterly wind flow will set up across the region leading to increasing amounts of humidity to push into the region. Skies tonight will be partly cloudy with low temperatures near 65 Degrees. Winds will be southwest at 5 to 10 mph. Thursday: A warm front will lift northward across the region during the day on Thursday bringing increasing heat and humidity. A mixture of sunshine and clouds is expected throughout the day. A piece of energy associated with an upper level trough of low pressure will cross the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. This will lead to a round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to cross the region between about 6 pm and 11 pm. As for the strong to severe thunderstorm threat, I think the risk for strong and certainly severe thunderstorms is low to very low. Even though the atmosphere looks like it’ll be warm, humid and unstable, there are a few clues that the atmosphere may not produce severe thunderstorms. The first is that there may be a layer of warmer air found at about 5000 feet above the ground, which could create a cap and limit the thunderstorm development. The second is that it appears that there may be a layer of dry air found around 18,000 feet above the ground, which could cause any thunderstorms to collapse due to lack of mid-level moisture. That said, I’m ALWAYS monitoring the weather around Western and Central Mass and will certainly let you know if things change. At this point though, any thunderstorms that do develop Thursday evening should remain below severe levels and be more “garden variety” storms. It will be warm and humid on Thursday with high temperatures near 85 Degrees and dew point temperatures between 70 and 75 Degrees. Winds will be South at 10 to 20 mph. Friday: Another warm and humid day is expected on Friday under partly sunny skies. A frontal system is expected to push through the region by late in the day bringing with it some scattered late afternoon and evening showers and isolated thunderstorms. A glance at the weather guidance upper air soundings reveals that the atmosphere may be pretty hostile towards producing strong or severe thunderstorms (even more so than Thursday). This means that I think any thunderstorms will be far and few between and the severe weather risk looks extremely low. High temperatures will be near 85 Degrees with humid conditions (dew point temperatures in the mid 60s). Winds will be Southwest at 5 to 10 mph. This Weekend: Low humidity, warm temperatures and lots of sunshine are expected on both Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures on both Saturday and Sunday will be near 85 Degrees. Hot To Very Hot Weather Returns Next Week: Increasing heat and humidity is expected throughout next week with potentially Thursday and Friday being the hottest days of next week. Monday looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 85 and 90 Degrees. Tuesday is expected to be partly sunny with perhaps some scattered showers and thunderstorms during the evening. High temperatures will be between 85 and 90 Degrees. Wednesday looks partly sunny with high temperatures near 90 Degrees. Thursday also looks partly sunny with high temperatures between 90 and 95 Degrees. Friday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures near 95 Degrees. Again, all of next week looks quite humid, which means that heat index numbers will likely be quite high leading to the threat for heat related illnesses for those susceptible to the heat or unprepared for the heat. Weather Outlook For August: The month of August potentially looks hot and humid, especially during the first half of month. On average, August is the most humid month of the year across the region and this year will be no exception. Temperatures, on the whole, during August look to be about 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit above average. As for rainfall, current indications are that very dry weather may continue through the first half of August with perhaps a wetter pattern setting up during the second half of August. All-in-all, it appears that August may average out near normal in terms of rainfall totals, mostly due to a possible wetter second half of the month. Finally, I continue to be very concerned about a tropical storm or hurricane either being a direct impact or a close enough brush to bring impacts to Western and Central during August into September. The time frame I’m most concerned about this occurring is from about August 15 to about September 20. The weather pattern as we get into August and September appears to potentially feature a big sub-tropical high pressure ridge off of the East Coast of the United States and an upper level trough of low pressure centered near the Great Lakes region. If this comes to fruition, it’s extremely concerning as any tropical systems could be steered right up the East Coast of the United States towards Southern New England. Analog years such as 1938, 1955, 1985, 1996 and 2011 continue to show up frequently in the data. This means that our current overall weather pattern is similar to what the weather pattern was like during those past years. It should be noted that these particular years have consistently popped up in the data way back since March and April. This piece of data is quite concerning because all of those previous analog years had either a very close brush or a direct impact from a tropical storm or hurricane here in Southern New England (1938 Hurricane; Connie & Diane in 1955; Gloria in 1985; Edouard in 1996; Irene in 2011). Needless to say, I’ll be keeping a very close eye on any tropical system and will warn you WELL AHEAD of time of any possible threats.

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