For This Afternoon: An area of high pressure is expected to move to the east this afternoon. This will set up a southerly wind flow across the region this afternoon. A mixture of some sun and lots of clouds are expected for this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will be near 40 Degrees. South winds are expected to gust up to 30 mph at times. Tonight: Cloudy skies are expected for tonight with temperatures between 35 and 40 Degrees this evening and then rising to between 40 and 45 Degrees after midnight. Southwest winds are expected to gust up to 30 mph at times. Thursday: A very mild and windy day is expected on Thursday under cloudy skies. High temperatures Thursday will be near 55 Degrees. Southwest winds are expected to gust up to 35 mph at times. Thursday Night & Friday: A strong frontal system is expected to push through the area late Thursday night and Friday morning bringing with it heavy rain, strong winds, a rumble or two of thunder and very mild temperatures. Let Me Break Down Each Part Of This Storm For You: Rain: Steady rain is expected to overspread Western Mass around the 9 to 10 pm time frame Thursday night and then overspread Central Mass between 10 pm and Midnight Thursday night. Heavy rain is then expected across Western Mass from about 11 pm Thursday night until about 7-8 am Friday morning. Heavy rain is expected across Central Mass from about midnight until about 8-9 am Friday morning. Rain is expected to come to an end across Western Mass by mid-morning Friday and across Central Mass around late morning Friday. One thing that I'm going to be watching closely is the possibility for a squall line to move through first thing Friday morning. This squall line could bring a short burst of very heavy rain, very gusty winds and a thunderstorm or two. The time frame for this squall line looks to be between about 6 am and 8 am Friday morning across Western Mass and between about 7 am and 9 am Friday morning. Total rainfall amounts of around one inch can be expected.
Winds: Strong southerly winds are expected to be an issue on Thursday night and the first half of Friday morning. These winds will shift into a westerly direction by late Friday morning. On Thursday night, south to southwest winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph before midnight and then sustained at 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph after midnight out of a south to southwest direction. During the early and mid-morning hours of Friday, southwest winds will be sustained at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 to 50 mph. During the late morning and afternoon hours of Friday, west winds will be sustained at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. If there are going to be downed tree limbs and any power outages, the most likely time frame for this to occur looks to be from about 11 pm Thursday night until about 9 am Friday morning. In particular, if we do see a squall line push through between 6 am and 9 am Friday morning, it could bring a short burst of wind gusts of 50-plus mph that could bring down tree limbs and cause power outages. Flooding: Street and basement flooding looks very likely between 11 pmThursday night and 9 am Friday morning as there's likely to be significant runoff of water due to the rain not being able to be absorbed due to a frozen ground. I don't think that there will be any stream or river flooding as the amount of rain shouldn't be enough to cause any issues. Thunderstorm Potential: There's the possibility of a thunderstorm or two during Friday morning as that squall line moves through between 6 am and 9 am. Strong or severe thunderstorms are not expected. Temperatures: Temperatures on Thursday night will be around 55 Degrees all night long. On Friday morning, temperatures are expected to start out around 55 Degrees and then fall into the 40s by late Friday morning. During Friday afternoon, temperatures are expected to continue to fall into the 30s by early afternoon and then to about 30 Degrees by late Friday afternoon. At this point, I don't think that there will be an issue of icy roads as there should be enough time between the rain ending and the temperatures reaching 32 Degrees so that things dry out. Also, the gusty winds will accelerate the drying process late Friday morning and Friday afternoon. For The Presidents’ Day Weekend: A frontal system is expected to push across the region Saturday afternoon. This means that I think that we could see some scattered snow shower activity late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening. Localized snow amounts of up to one inch is possible. High temperatures Saturday will be between 35 and 40 Degrees. Sunday is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures near 35 Degrees. Presidents’ Day is expected to be partly sunny with high temperatures between 40 and 45 Degrees.